mlk_man's account talk

[Guest]

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Sorry about the graphics, that did not paste exactly how it was showing. I hope you can understand it.

Joel

 

[Guest]

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Yes you are correct, current 63-day moving averages are C - 11.8, S - 12.8, and I - 13.2. That would put"buy" signals at C - 11.6, S - 12.6 and I - 13.0. Current prices are C - 11.6, S - 12.7, and I - 13.2. So we have a "buy" signal for the C fund. I'm am currently 50% C and 50% S because of my own stupidity and bought too soon. I have to learn to just follow my rules and not listen to the stock market voices in my head. You know "buy mike buy", "no mike, don't do it!" Makes me think of "Animal House"

If I could post my charts I would, but don't seem to be able to. I'll send them to Tom and perhaps he can do it for me. I hope this is okay Tom. My moving averages shows me that the fast moving averages for the C and S funds are below the intermediate and fast moving averages but seem to leveling out, a very good sign. The I funds fast moving average just dipped below the intermediate average. I would stay away from it for awhile longer.

That's it. Going 100% C today because of my buy signal. Hopefully the S will drop a little more and we'll get a buy signal next week and get back into it at that time. Now if the prices drop further, don't get too concerned because they WILL come back up. They continued to drop in May but I wasn't doing my moving averages at that time so I had no way of knowing if the moving averages where leveling out or not.

100% C. :^ Hope this helps, good luck.

 

[Frizz B.]

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How true How true, I was listening to the voices saying July would be a good start for the climb of the stocks, where my differential theory said to move to the G fund. But I to believed that it was time for the stocks to start their rise out of this flux we have been in and I am getting killed right now. No one to blame but myself and my differential theory says it is time to get back in the stocks and so I stay, getting hammered. I still believe the stocks will rebound and I will break out even in the long run. But I missed a great opportunity to gain another 4-7% on my yearly total. :dude:

 

[Guest]

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Yepper, have to "kill" the voices! :s

I believe our systems very similiar, just use different termage and values. Relief is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hopefully.........................o

 

[tsptalk]

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mlk_man wrote:

If I could post my charts I would, but don't seem to be able to. I'll send them to Tom and perhaps he can do it for me. I hope this is okay Tom.

No problem.

mlk_man's chart... fund_charts.xls

 

[Guest]

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Sorry all, forgot to label my series. The blue is fast moving-average, the pink is intermediate, and the yellow is slow.

 

[Guest]

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MLK man wrote:

Yes you are correct, current 63-day moving averages are C - 11.8, S - 12.8, and I - 13.2. That would put"buy" signals at C - 11.6, S - 12.6 and I - 13.0. Current prices are C - 11.6, S - 12.7, and I - 13.2. So we have a "buy" signal for the C fund."

I'm not trying to get technical, I'm just trying to understand this. Here goes: I don't understand why there would be a "buy" for the C fund when it is at 12.69 now (not 12.6) and it needs to get down to 12.6 for a buy. Am I wrong to suggest that there is some significance with a stock fund with a small share price having a differance between 12.6 and 12.69 (percentage is actually .7%) Is that significant? Just trying to learn. The S fund is at 12.75, not 12.7 as well. Myabe it works without being that precise. What do you think?

Joel

 

[Mike]

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Prices as of the end of Friday's trading are: C 11.64, S 12.65, and I 13.39.

 

[Guest]

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

I'm not trying to get technical, I'm just trying to understand this. Here goes: I don't understand why there would be a "buy" for the C fund when it is at 12.69 now (not 12.6) and it needs to get down to 12.6 for a buy. Am I wrong to suggest that there is some significance with a stock fund with a small share price having a differance between 12.6 and 12.69 (percentage is actually .7%) Is that significant? Just trying to learn. The S fund is at 12.75, not 12.7 as well. Myabe it works without being that precise. What do you think?

Joel

I only go down one decimal place and not two. Close enough for me and it seems to work best but do your own calculations and do what you think is best. This time it would of been best to wait till it dropped to the actual 12.63 for the C fund, but it doesn't always work that way. You definately don't won't to miss the rally up.

So, that being said, we now have a buy signal for the S fund so I'm going 50% C and 50% S today to take effect tomorrow morning.

Good luck.

 

[tsptalk]

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mlk_man wrote:

So, that being said, we now have a buy signal for the S fund so I'm going 50% C and 50% S today to take effect tomorrow morning.

Two petty comments mlk. On July 15th you wrote:

"I went 50% C and 50% S yesterday on a hunch. DON'T DO THAT! Still a bit early to jump in according to my system, but I did it anyway. I'll just go ahead and stay in since I feel a rebound is soon coming. Hopefully. If not, it'll be back up eventually. My advice is jump in on Friday if stocks are down again today."

And that's the last allocation change I see from you, so what is happening tomorrow (July 20th) that is different?

Also, as a reminder, we have a rule that says we can't say things like"yesterday I went 100% X fund....". If you make a change it has to be statedbefore the deadline on the day you make the allocation change. It sounds petty but itis to prevent people from Monday morning quarterbacking and eliminate anyquestions about when transactions took place.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html

Thanks!!
Tom

 

[Guest]

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You're right. I thought I was still 100% C fund. Forgot I bought into S fund early untill I went to change my allocation. Mainly just wanted to tell folks we got a buy signal for the S fund now. However, by the looks of the markets, we may challenge the May lows for the year. So prices may fall another 20 cents or so.

Petty? Hmmm, just an honest mistake. Don't shoot me please. :'

 

[tsptalk]

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Petty on my part.

I do appreciate you guys/gals who post your account info andtransactions. It helps the new folks see the thought process of making an allocation change.That's what this is all about. Helping people understand how they maywant to manage their money (trade / buy and hold etc.)

A couple of members posted their accounts in a buy and hold fashion but I don't hear from them much. I guess that's the beauty of diversifying or a long term approach. They don't have to think about it every day.

Tom

 

[Guest]

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Were you in C and S yesterday jgpalmerdds? If you had waited till the C hit 12.63, which is the 63-day moving average, you would of missed the little bounce back in the C fund yesterday. Of course, if you would of been 100% S, it would of been better. But that's why I only carry it out to one decimal place. I think I may actually start getting in and out when the current price gets to within .05 of the moving average. We'll see,, I have to do some calculations. We all know this not an "exact" science.

I love it when a system works like it should. Hopefully it will be up from here for awhile. :^

Oh, and don't expect the values to be right on all the time either. Most times it will drop a little further when youbuy and go up a little farther when you sell. I just try to minimize the damage and make sure I catch the bigger wave.

Currently up 13.10% with a combination of C, S, and I. Would be up 16.20% if I only used S and I. It's the conservative in me.

 

[Guest]

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No, I did not get in. The main reason is that I did not read your post until after 12:00 pm, so I did not get in the same day as you, and I am glad, as the market got killed today (which should be more of a reason for me to get in). I am also trying to see the consistancy of the system (I'm still new). I will run the numbers tonight, which will show a buy. Tell me, do you ever do mid day numbers when you see the market going one direction, let' s say you are close to a buy, and it is heading into the buy range at 11:00 a.m., do you then make a trade effective for the next day? I ask this because sometimes I don't get a look at my computer until after 12:00 noon.

Basically, I'm not in as of right now. If I place the order, it won't be effective until Friday. What do you think?

Also, I understand about not getting in at the bottom or out at the top, no one can consistantly do that. The way to look at it, is lets say go for 2% a month (consistant singles and doubles) and not worry about the home run, then at the end of the year you look back and you are up 24%!! That is what I see in your system and the reason I am so interested. Thanks for your time.

Joel

 

[Guest]

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I'm finally in, starting tomorrow, as I made a change from 100% G to 50% C, 50% S as you did earlier. And yes, those two averages fell .2 below the 63 day moving average finally after yesterday. We will see how this goes. Of course, I'm shorting the market (with margin) in my private IRA money which is quite a contradiction to this, I guess. Take care.

Joel

 

[Guest]

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Good call on waiting till now Joel. :^ The funds may still fall a little further, but it's all okay. Actually, it would be nice for you if they did fall more today.

With my sell at 30 cents above and buy at 20 cents below the moving average, I'm looking for about a 4% gain. Your thought of attempting a 2% gain each month is interesting, but I don't think it would be feesible with the TSP because of our one day delay and you don't know if the markets will go up or down on that one day. Could try with a private broker just make sure your trading enough money to cover expenses.

Let me know if you do. I may try some calculations later to see how it would work. My first impression is probably not, but we'll see.

Good luck to ya,

Mike

 

[Rolo]

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

The way to look at it, is lets say go for 2% a month (consistant singles and doubles) and not worry about the home run, then at the end of the year you look back and you are up 24%!!

hehe, I tried thinking that way with my brokerage account, trying for 5%/month. It doesn't seem to work that way, at least not with my über-volatile holdings and not in this market. In a bull market, it seems to work, I vyed for 20%/month in 2003 and I did achieve that (78% for the year, 30% higher than the highest index).

I still bear the premise in my mind as the closest thing to an anchor to sanity, as it usually forced me to lock-in profits and mitigate losses in order to maintain some semblence of consistency. In fact, I am glad you said that, I needed the reminder.

 

[Guest]

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I just threw the 2% out as an example. Thanks for the info. I'm just trying MLK's formula in it's purest form. Yes, the one day delay is always a problem. That is why that I asked if you ever look at the market in the morning when you are on the border of selling/buying and trade before 12:00 EST? Like today, let's say you are close to a buy signal in the S fund, and you see the S fund at this point down 1.3%, do you make the call before noon to buy so you the end of day price? Just wondering, and thanks for your help.

Joel

P.S.- my timing service is looking real smart right now as a 14% loss (with margin)has turned into a 5% gain or so shorting the market, as long as you stayed in all this time. It is a longer trend timing model

 

[Guest]

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I haven't tried to time the market midday. I just wait till the end of the session. As you can see, the market is coming back up now. You can try if you like and see what happens. It's sometimes nice to stay where you're at for another day because sometimes the market goes up or a little more accordingly. Sometimes not though. :shock:

Starting to look like we might reach the May lows for the year. I was little afraid of that but not a big deal. Hopefully it means the end is near!:^

 

[Guest]

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Hang in there folks, relief is coming. Although we continue to fall, especially the S fund, my system has tried to minimize the losses. If you're following my system, we bought C fund at 11.64 and the S fund 12.63. Current prices are C - 11.59 and S - 12.47. So we have lost a bit more with the S fund but stand to gain back more also.

If you were a buy and hold person, you would currently be watching the S fund fall from $13.22 all the way to $12.47. OUCH!!

Now the bad news. In May the S fund fell all the way to $12.16. :shock:Will this happen again? Don't know. I do know that the S fund fell for 17 straight days in May then sarting coming back. right now we have been falling for 15 days. I'm actually expecting a rebound either today or Monday, probably Monday. I'm only hoping that we don't take a big hit today. Mainly because of my individual stocks not my TSP cause I'm in till we come back up now. You could get out and wait till things come back up, but you stand the chance of missing something big.

Again, if you look back to May, we bought the S fund for $12.78 on May 3rd. We had to wait until June 28th to sell it at $13.07 for a 29 cent gain. So sometimes it takes awhile, but eventually we get a gain out of it.

The I fund is getting close to a "buy" signal, I would look for that early next week and then we'll jump into that also.

Good luck all, have a good weekend .



Mike