Market Talk

[coolhand]

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Can't say for sure, but the market may be up again today, albeit modestly. Requested a transfer this morning to pull back half of my "C" fund holdings so I'll be 30/0/30/10/30 (GFCSI).

The way I see it, a pull back will occur at any time, even a relatively small one. Don't want to let too much enthusiasm cloud my judgement (remember "irrational exuberance"?)

"I" fund still looks good so I'm staying pat there. Check out the link I gave to morgan stanley in the recommended reading thread. The first articlehas some good thoughts about the current global economic situation and where we may be headed.

 

[Mike]

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This article is taken from businessweek.com and echoes what a number of us have been saying about the potential for a pullback and what to expect when/if it happens (hopefully it's "when" in my case).

By Paul Cherney

Price Trends Are Still Positive
However, a retracement would be natural at any time

[font=arial,helvetica,univers]This comment looks similar to yesterday's because the technical condition of the market has not really changed: the trend for prices remains positive. A retracement would be natural at any time. End of day momentum measures suggest that any short-term price weakness should attract buyers, not sellers, so downside risk should be limited.

A buyers capitulation might have to occur to signal a greater potential for some retracement in prices. For a buyers capitulation I would have to see a day of gains while the total NYSE trading volume for the day was 1.75 billion or higher and the trade day was accompanied by a sharp drop in the VXO to a close under 12.60, that might be a sign that short-term buying demand has been sated.

Any price weakness would NOT change my expectations that a retracement should be limited in depth and duration.

The NASDAQ resistance 2049-2094, resistance thickens 2079-2094, next resistance 2108-2153.83.

Immediate intraday NASDAQ support is 2055-2025.71, support thickens 2036-2027.69. Next intraday support is 2020.67-2002.

S&P 500 intraday support: 1177-1160, support is thick 1170-1160, the next layer of organized intraday support is 1147-1138.50.

The S&P 500 has thick resistance 1185-1226.

We are at the beginning of what has been historically, on average, the 3 best performing months of the year -- November through January. [/font]

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

This article is taken from businessweek.com and echoes what a number of us have been saying about the potential for a pullback and what to expect when/if it happens (hopefully it's "when" in my case).

For your sake Mike, I hope we get a nice pullback. We are getting into nosebleed territory and without decent support below us, the pullback can be steep.

To keep things in perspective, back when the S&P went over 1150, I was thinking a pullback to the 1140 area would be good for the market. Now, with the S&P over 1180,that would be almost a 4% drop and seem rather scary. The nextsupport area below us now is 1163. That would be nice but that 1140 area is a lot stronger so it wouldn't surprise me.

If I were you, or anyone else who missed this last run, I'd drip in. That is, put something in as we approach 1163. If that doesn't hold add more near 1150, then again around 1140.By then you'll be fully invested. If we only get a small pullback (to 1163 say) you'd have to bite the bullet and jump in at that point.

Also, we know how the markets does business. The more people thatexpect a pullback, the less likely it will come.

 

[Show-me]

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Exactly what I was thinking! I'm dying to get back in the market but at what point. My problem is: 1) Will the market continue to grow without a major correction. or 2) Will the market cut me some slack and give me a window. I'm fearing the Murphy'sLaw where "When you get back in the market before a pullback thats when the market will PULLBACK.":shock: Sooo, that's where the dollar cost averaging method comes into play. I figure that I won't be able stand it after Tuesday. Question is how much, how fast.

I was ranting at work about missing the .30 cent gain in the I Fund at the end of the week. Then a friend reminded me its better to be out of the market for a little up tick than in the market for a little down tick. I've done pretty well the last couple months since following these message boards. I've caught a lot of up ticks and avoided the downers. Thanks everyone! Keep investing! It's your future!


P.S. It's a beautiful day for deer hunting in NE Missouri and where am I. Thanks Tom, I'm hooked.

 

[Mike]

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I'm planning a 3-day move. As soon as I see it drop to 1163, I'm pushing 1/3 in. If the next day looks flat to down, I'll push another 1/3 in. I'm extremely reluctant to buy-in at prices above that level. S-fund continues to outperform the C, so I will probably hedge my bets and split C and S again. Interest rates will keep climbing, so C will take over pretty soon - I just can't pin down when yet... probably after the next interest rate hike or thereabouts.

Since Nov 2 (my bail-out date to G), C is up $.59 (4.91%), S is up $.71 (5.36%), and I is up $.56 (3.97%). The S fund gain is about equal to my year-to-date gain.

 

[Dakota]

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Mike wrote:

I'm planning a 3-day move. As soon as I see it drop to 1163, I'm pushing 1/3 in. If the next day looks flat to down, I'll push another 1/3 in. I'm extremely reluctant to buy-in at prices above that level. S-fund continues to outperform the C, so I will probably hedge my bets and split C and S again. Interest rates will keep climbing, so C will take over pretty soon - I just can't pin down when yet... probably after the next interest rate hike or thereabouts.

Since Nov 2 (my bail-out date to G), C is up $.59 (4.91%), S is up $.71 (5.36%), and I is up $.56 (3.97%). The S fund gain is about equal to my year-to-date gain.

If your completely out of the market I'd tiptoe back in I don't think you have anything to loose right now. With me saying that I'm 25% across except f, and ready to shuffle If the I turns,but I don't think it will good luck Keep a good eye

 

[Show-me]

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That's what I plan on doing this week. Be careful. Like Tom said he believes a correction is coming next week.

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Tom for the info about dripping back into the market. I hope it works out well for everyone, including you Mike.I guess Tom when you have been trading as long as you have, you had your share of humbling experiences. I had been learning to handled my TSP accountsince spring, and have gone throughmany ups and downs.:? I underestimated the power of a real bull market. When I discovered how I really messed up by bailing at the 1163 level, I was pretty bummed out. I didn't know how on earth I could get back in without suffering too much loss. Reading your comments to Mike was just the thing I needed to cheer me up and help me see a possible ray of hope soon. What should I look for to know if a pull-back is in progress as compared to normal trading, since we have to act before 12:00est? Thanks again

 

[Pete1]

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Suggest thatyou get back in byspreading your risk across the 3 stock funds (17c, 17s, 17i) with 49% allocated to G fund. You will not get hammered with a huge loss (the balanced approachrarely takes the big hit) and you will not miss out on further gains. Would not wait for theinevitable correction - if you take a small hit, so be it.

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Pete 1.

 

[tsptalk]

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vectorman wrote:

I guess Tom when you have been trading as long as you have, you had your share of humbling experiences.

Oh yeah. More than my share.

What should I look for to know if a pull-back is in progress as compared to normal trading, since we have to act before 12:00est?

One way to get an early read on a short term trend change is to watch the high and low prices of the S&P 500 during the past few days. The pullback can't begin until we get a lower price than the prior day's lowest price. So, if the S&P 500 goes below Friday's low before the 12 noon deadline, there is a chance the pullback is starting. It should also not go above the prior day's high.

Friday's high - 1,184.17
Friday's low - 1,171.39

 

[Paul]

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New Market Brief

 

[zoeb]

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tsptalk wrote:

One way to get an early read on a short term trend change is to watch the high and low prices of the S&P 500 during the past few days. The pullback can't begin until we get a lower price than the prior day's lowest price. So, if the S&P 500 goes below Friday's low before the 12 noon deadline, there is a chance the pullback is starting. It should also not go above the prior day's high.

Friday's high - 1,184.17
Friday's low - 1,171.39

Its 10:50 Monday morning and the stupid S&P is going up and down between the Friday's high and low numbers. For today, I'm 50g and 50s and likely to stay that way through tomorrow because I'm like the market in that I don't know which way to go. I also made good money last week and I don't want to lose that so I'm gonna play it safe.

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Tom for the information on how one might get a read on a possilbe pull back.

I heard the talking heads on the money channel say they thought the market is over bought.Does that mean we may see a pullback before another climb like the one thursday and friday? thanks.

 

[Rod]

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Looks like some pullback is happening...

Maybe we'll come up for air near the end of the day.

God Bless:^

 

[Guest]

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Rod wrote:

Looks like some pullback is happening...

Maybe we'll come up for air near the end of the day.

God Bless:^

Yepper, looks like l may have missed the F fund boat by a day..............

 

[Mike]

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Hopefully this is the start of a correction. It is highly unlikely we will threaten 1163 today. Tomorrow is a possibility though. I'll be watching closely.

 

[Rod]

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Mike wrote:

Hopefully this is the start of a correction. It is highly unlikely we will threaten 1163 today. Tomorrow is a possibility though. I'll be watching closely.

Don't wanna correction just yet... I'm invested.

 

[puertorico]

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I'm invested too and I was out in the two days rallyes :?

Rod do we have the same teacher ,becouse we marching at the same step

 

[Rod]

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puertorico wrote:

I'm invested too and I was out in the two days rallyes :?

Rod do we have the same teacher ,becouse we marching at the same step

I don't know about you, but my teacher is Jesus! :!

Where are you invested now?