Market Talk

[cowboy]

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MMM! The voltility index was a negative 4.26 at close and markets were pretty much flat. Could this be our breather everyone is talking about. Usually when the voltility index is negative usually a good sign for markets. I think this market needs air and hopefully it will get it. I would think if the markets take a big hike tomorrow this bull market would be considered very strong but short lived. I would rather see it drop to the support level then go up! What do you guys think?

 

[Rod]

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Rod wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

Expect a slow morning and fireworks after 2:15 PM ET.

Yeah, I expect the same thing too.

There were fireworks, but then they fizzled.

 

[Spaf]

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Yea Rod, a very appropriate choice of words, couldn't have said it better!

Cowboy to the best of my interpolation the Bull of 2003 took a breather of a few weeks after it's initial advance. So, 2004 is anyone's guess.

 

[tsptalk]

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cowboy wrote:

MMM! The voltility index was a negative 4.26 at close and markets were pretty much flat. Could this be our breather everyone is talking about. Usually when the voltility index is negative usually a good sign for markets. I think this market needs air and hopefully it will get it. I would think if the markets take a big hike tomorrow this bull market would be considered very strong but short lived. I would rather see it drop to the support level then go up! What do you guys think?

I don't think these flat days are helping too much, but they are not hurting either. If you look at a chart of the S&P 500 (I think there is one on www.tsptalk.com/comments.html) you will see that after a big rally or sell off, there seems to be a few days of indecision before a reversal. It's like the bulls and bears battle for a few days then it reverses direction.

My "wiggle" calls aren't usually too accurate but I am guessing we may start seeing a pullback early next week. If we get some strength Thursday and/or Friday that will be just enough to trap some folks who missed this last rally, suck them in, then get a pullback. The market likes to do that. They will then eventually bail in frustration. That's when the rally will resume.

 

[Spaf]

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Agree with you Tom. Next week could be very good. Tomorrow is a holiday and Friday is a holiday (Spaf fishing day). Monday is generally ho-hum, but a day to watch, to maybe change allocations.

This year in retro, YTD. Jan 02.04 TSP (share prices) started G10.24, F9.94, C11.61, S12.50, and I12.99.Feburary started a bear market with declines and cycles. From July 1 to Aug 12 the worst cycle was hit where G10.51, F10.23, C11.27, S11.87, and I12.80.The CSI funds lost $. The funds went up and down through two more cycles till October 25 when they settled on a higher low and the start of a new bull market, ending as of 11.10.04 at G10.62, F10.33, C12.36, S13.69, and I14.35.

Now lets consider that TSP has 139B$Tot, with 3.3M members Tot. TheS fund accounts for 6B$ and the I accounts for 2.3B$.

Lastely, apply deductive reasoning.

 

[Rod]

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Looks like today is going to be a nice GREEN day for those of you invested.

Enjoy those gains!:!

God Bless:^

 

[tsptalk]

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Spaf wrote:

Agree with you Tom. Next week could be very good.

For the record Spaf, I actually said the market could pull back early next week.

I said,
"I am guessing we may start seeing a pullback early next week. If we get some strength Thursday and/or Friday that will be just enough to trap some folks who missed this last rally, suck them in, then get a pullback. The market likes to do that. They will then eventually bail in frustration. That's when the rally will resume."

I didn't want to cause any confusion.

 

[coolhand]

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Lot's of new money coming into play. Seems like a lot of investors are quite bullish right now with Bush winning the election, oil prices easing, Arafat out of the picture, good 4th quarter profit expectationsand the end of yearseasonal expectation of higher returns. I think the quarter point rate hike in December is probably already priced into the market.

How much pull back can we expect and when? Tradersappearto beafraid to miss out on potential gains.

Still 60% "C", 10% "S" and 30% "I" and loving every minute of it .

 

[Spaf]

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Your saying "guessing", and I'm saying "could". I got it from Cowboy as a "definite maybe" .

This Bull market is different. It had real strong advances, and then stopped for a breather, but it did not back up far at all. I think it is ready to run.

I think I'm too use to fighting that bear market we had. My stats say toplace the allocations, take advantage of the bull. My emotions are nervous about it.

Guess work, could work,it's a bull market, thats a fact. If Thurs & Fri are a trap for a pullback next week. I'll be on guard (Thanks). In the mean time I'm going to make a definite change in allocations, upward to 50%C and 50%S and maybe not cancell before I leave to go fishing tomorrow.

 

[smedlap]

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Spaf, help me. I'm a little slow. What should I be using deductive reasoning on. The S and I with little amounts compared to C? Those that play the S and I are maybe more aggressive then the conservatives. I don't know. Fact is today's risewas purely sentiment first, oil decline second, third - Aarafat's departure, forth - Cisco and Dell earnings. Not to challenge in any way but up until a month ago, this has been a difficult market to play as Tom has underscored abet I have done well. This last month has been very good to us, especially those that proceeded very carefully. I remember when the S&P was at 1440 or higher. I guess my point is to study the market and always be attentive. Another poster recommended not to day trade which is sage advise abet make prudent adjustment when appropriate. I have to commend many here that are providing exellent information. I myself have been riding C, S and I in 100% blocks and a short term C. I'm very happy with only a 2 day loss of $439 since 1 Oct. On the other hand - gains have been most generous. But it is because I watched the site recommendations but made my own decisions. I just caution some of the new participants to always stay informed and follow no one. I hope this market climbs quickly to S&P 500 fair value of 1260. Then we can really play. Oil decline is our tail wind everytime it drops, best 3 months makes it a jet stream...... until we get close to 1250. Your counter thoughts. Thanks Tom for your lead!!!

 

[Spaf]

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Smedlap

Glad you asked!
The numbers were posted as facts of prior performance. That until the recent bull, gains were hard to come by in the bear market of Feb-Oct., generally funds were declining during this period.Holding volatile funds during that time period would have made me a nervious wreck. I may have given up some gains by going to the G fund at times, but at least I could sleep at nights.
Does this help?

Your comment about staying informed was well made.

Rgds Spaf

 

[smedlap]

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Thanks Spaf, for the response. Sleep well tonight as the Nikkei is up 1% riding on the back of our market and the S&P futures are slightly up also. We'll see how the European markets follow. I think US corporate earnings are mostly reportedbut I do expect continued upward market trend due to downward oil trend and our drift towards the holidays. Earlierpost suggested that there was a lot of money coming into the market.This is for sure accurateas the myriad fund managers have been waiting for a good run and there is not much time left this CY. There is also year-end bonus and IRA dumping to avoid tax liabilities. Think it is hard to misssome reasonable gains next two months. So sleep well, it''s onlyour retirement funds!! I'm going quiet again as I'm heading for the Big Apple. But I'll look for your posts!

 

[Spaf]

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Thursday evening.

The current bull market has produced moderate advances and small declines (Mon. Tues. Wed.). The Mon - Wed may have been a firming up or what ever. A correction as in the Bull of 2003 has not yet appeared. Maybe yes, maybe no. With an advancing market having such rather large ups and rather small downs, I will error on the side of the ups (advances), thus my allocation of 50%C and 50%S for a Friday transfer. If the AM market does not support this re-allocation I'll cancel back to 25-25. However my plan is to tweek allocations as the bull runs.

Rgds and be careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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I'm waiting for Godot.

 

[Spaf]

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OK Mike, I'll bite, whats a "Godot?"

 

[Mike]

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Didn't you take a college lit class?

"Waiting for Godot" - ever hear of it? The only thing that happens in the story is these two guys keep showing up at the same spot to wait for Godot... but Godot never shows (a few inconsequential events happen as they wait).

My comment was playing on that, with "correction/pull back" being the obvious concept that one would substitute in place of Godot- I'm patiently waiting around for this so I can jump back into the stock market and make the gains on the 2nd leg. :^

 

[coolhand]

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Gold is up $2 this morning (may not hold) and the dollar still has a weak bias. Dollar has really dropped vs the Yen in the last couple of days. Bank of Japan may step in to prop up the dollar if it hits 105 yen (currently at 105.89). The EU hasn't intervened yet and may not for a little while.

Found this website the other day http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

It gives real time Forex rates andpostsgreat news items continually.

 

[Show-me]

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I want to get back in the market soooo bad it's starting to hurt. Anyone else feel that way? If I get back in now doesnt that mean the market will correct itself.

When doespatienceturn to something else? Patience, patience, patience.

 

[vectorman]

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I feel your pain. I pulled out Wednesday to protect the most money I've had in my account in three years. Boy did I mess up. I too am scared about getting back in at the wrong time.Right now it seems any time out of a bull market is a wrong time. I agree with Tom, that any correction might be too short to take full advantage of.Sounds like youhave quite abit of patience. This day is tearing me up, especially not knowing what Monday will bring. I'll probably get a small toe wet, just so I have horse in the running. Good luck.

 

[Show-me]

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Mondays are historically down days I believe. Be careful. Although I thought the same thing.