Market Talk

[Spaf]

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Well my strategy!

I use a combination of stats and sentiment. For reference see incrediblecharts.com (Trading guide/indicators) for how I use Moving averages (MA) and the parabolic SAR with the technical charts found on Yahoo finance. I use a MA that is slightly under 1/2 the market cycles (or a MA of 20 days).

Currently, if today holds up, the MA and P-SAR should indicate a buy, hopefully. If this holds and the sentiment is favorable, especially oil, and market talk and members continue to say that October is a good month. RE: Tom and his chart on seasonality. The stats and sentiment will be positive and (all a go) I will reallocate funds out of the hanger to be flying on Oct 1. I'm thinking S=70 and I=30.

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

I Like It ...

It sound a very good strategic...

I will educate myself on it...

Thank You...

Leon

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

What range of time do you look ?

1 day, 5 days, 3 mos, 6 mos, 1yr... ?

Which one do you use to move ?

I think S 70% and I 30% is asave combination...

Leon

 

[Cinderella]

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cowboy wrote:

I went 100% F today in hopes to catch a small raise tomorrow if anyone wants to know. I was currently G 100% for the last week. If the markets take a down turn on Thursday I may jump in to S or I and maybe C. If you followed any of my posts I was expecting a drop in I which it did but it was at the top of my prediction, so I stayed put in G. My thinking is these markets may fall on Thursday again and may go up on Friday. Will play this short.

I agree that the market might be down on Thursday due to the end of the quarter when the mutual funds sell to clear holdings for the end of the FY statements. This might be a good buying opportunity. I hope you make some gains on the F fund this week.

 

[TheProphet]

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Get ready to do some cow milking... o

but it is is just for few days only... :%

I think it will be one more down swing beforethe election rallyspark...:i

 

[Spaf]

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lkatteng wrote:

Spaf,

What range of time do you look ?

1 day, 5 days, 3 mos, 6 mos, 1yr... ?

Which one do you use to move ?

I think S 70% and I 30% is asave combination...

Leon

3 mos! Also see: $SPX in the gallery chart at stockcharts.com

 

[TheProphet]

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Thank you Spaf...

I was looking 6 mo with 10 MA...

Have a Nice Evening...

Leon

 

[Spaf]

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Reallocation

As stated I rely on stats and sentiment to exit or enter market timing. As of COB Wednesday I reallocated funds to S=70% and I=30% with a probability of 83% chance of being right. I wish it would have been higher. But a transfer back or a cancellation is a parachute option. My system looked like this:

S fund:20 day MA = OK P-SAR = No Sentiment = OK

I fund: 20 day MA = OK P-SAR = OK Sentiment = OK

5 of 6 indicators indicated OK. The MA and P-SAR represent data changes of 2 days, not a big trend, but backed with (Toms) seasonality chart, I feel the odds are in favor.

 

[tsptalk]

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lkatteng wrote:

Tom,

I usually consider also the price of the Funds...

S and I are at higher prices... 6% or so higher...

Leon

Leon -
I don't usually look at the actual price of the funds. Like a stock, you want to stay with what is working. There is no real logical reason that I can think of why if one stockfund is upthat anotherwill catch up. They may fluctuate but theoretically it could take months or years for a lagging fund to catch up.

Just my take.
Tom

 

[Mike]

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Price is important if you are looking at it from the perspective of "cheaper fund = more shares = greater return".

If everything goes up 5 cents per share, you make the biggest gain if you hold the cheapest fund (of course, it's rather unusual for all the funds to behave in the same fashion, even if you are just comparing G&F or C, S, & I).

 

[Spaf]

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Mike

All funds don't respond accordingly to predictions! Boy I wish they did! What we have is (currently) a bearish trending market influenced by a lot of varibles (weather, oil, market reports, and sentiment). Please remember that FERS investors are for the most partnoviceinvestors. This isa reflection of our "system". Good, bad or indifferent, this is our reality.

 

[Mike]

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Good news:

*The gov't revised GDP growth upward for the spring quarter (I believe the quoted number was 3.3%).

*The IMF is projecting world economic growth for this year to be the strongest in 30 years, in spite of high oil prices (they expect it to slacken a bit next year but still exceed 4%).

*Oil prices retreated a bit yesterday when the gov't released inventory numbers - indicating an increase in US supplies as tankers made their delayed deliveries (traders expected a decline).

Life isn't all doom and gloom, folks.

Edit: the quoted number was indeed correct. The US economy grew at a 3.3% rate, which is higher than the originally estimated 2.8%.

 

[TheProphet]

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The 25 years compressed in one year chart shows that the C Funds performs better than the S Funds for the month of October

 

[learning]

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:?

 

[learning]

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Spaf wrote:

Reallocation

As stated I rely on stats and sentiment to exit or enter market timing. As of COB Wednesday I reallocated funds to S=70% and I=30% with a probability of 83% chance of being right. I wish it would have been higher. But a transfer back or a cancellation is a parachute option

What do you mean a cancellation? I was told that you can not cancel. You move by 11 and after that it is a did and done deal. Is this wrong?:? Please, teach me.

 

[cowboy]

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If you move early and decide to cancel your interfund move prior to 11:00 am you can do so. If you do it after 11:00 am it will not take effect for one whole day until the next close.

 

[Cinderella]

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learning wrote:

 

What do you mean a cancellation?  I was told that you can not cancel.  You move by 11 and after that it is a did and done deal.  Is this wrong? :? Please, teach me.

You can cancel an interfund transfer prior to the deadline of 11 a.m. central time or noon eastern time. After that, it cannot be cancelled.

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

Price is important if you are looking at it from the perspective of "cheaper fund = more shares = greater return".

If everything goes up 5 cents per share, you make the biggest gain if you hold the cheapest fund (of course, it's rather unusual for all the funds to behave in the same fashion, even if you are just comparing G&F or C, S, & I).

I think it is apples and oranges. Things move up in percentages. If Ebay ($92 a share) and Oracle ($11 a share) each wentup $1 today, Oracle would have hada big day and Ebay only a fair day. It's easier for EBAY to move $1. I'm not sure I'm explaining this well but basically things move in percentages and higher prices stocks (and funds) move more money-wise than lower priced ones.

So,if the C fund, for example, was $11 and the S fund was $15, it doesn't mean the C fundis a better value.

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

Price is important if you are looking at it from the perspective of "cheaper fund = more shares = greater return".

If everything goes up 5 cents per share, you make the biggest gain if you hold the cheapest fund (of course, it's rather unusual for all the funds to behave in the same fashion, even if you are just comparing G&F or C, S, & I).

?

 

[Spaf]

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Well. Closing the books on September, it looked like (not a bad, not a good, but lets say) a fair month. TSP accounts were positive, some very little. September gains indicated (with no losses):

G = .04 F = .02 C = .10 S = .40 I =.24

I know that a number of members are reallocating funds for a hopeful October (myself included). The moving averages (MA), the parabolic SAR (in several funds (but not all)), and the sentiment indicates a entry! So I wish all the best, and the green. :^ (It's only money) so be careful out there (and have a exit strategy/alternate airport, guess incase)!