Market Talk

[Spaf]

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At COB Friday Sept 24, 2004, month to date, for the TSP (do it your self investors), the funds have recorded:

G=.03 F=.05 C=.05 S=.28I=.12 increases from Sept 1st.

Funds hit a peak on Sept 21st and have fallen somewhat, maybe into another cycle of this trending market.

The G fund (Granny) is probably the most prudent fund for the current time, based on market sentiment, and world events i.e., oil. The C fund has not been impressive and has risk higher then the G fund. The S fund has been the leader. The C-S-I funds can be volatile, somewhat, relative to the market (noting that they are index funds). The F fund needs caution because interest rates are rising and some members feel that it could peak, so far it's doing ok, but it needs to be watched for any trends (Thanks MT for your comments).

Using the S&P 500 as a general guide the market is indicating short or sell. Noting that the MA is now over the price (However, this is only for the S&P which would be the C Fund) See:

http://stockchart.com/gallery?$SPX

Other funds F, C, S, and I can be tracked individually via technical analysis charts at finance.yahoo.com.

After experimenting with the yahoo charts, I have selected their system with variable displays for moving averages, and the parabolic SAR ((P-SAR(stop and reverse)), and for each TSP fund, (individually). This way I can compare various investing options for the F, C, S and I funds.

For parabolic SAR usage please see:

http://incrediblecharts.com/technical/parabolic_sar.htm

Sentiment plays a big picture, especially when you don't have a crystal ball. My thanks to Tom (Tsptalk) and all the members that give (generally good advice), but especially their feelings, good, bad or indifferent. When one of us makes a decision that is maybe not right, you bet, you hear about it! If for nothing else this is a good thing. Because, most of us are government employees, and not (expert) financial advisors.

Currently I'm at G=25% and F=75% watching F very closely. I'll be on the sidelines (in the hanger), until MA trends are favorable,and the S&P P-SAR, and sentiment(s)indicate a favorable change, one way ot another. To wit until the hurricanes and oil can be resolved the waters of the ecomomy will be unsettled.

Please be careful out there! :^

 

[Spaf]

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"How to".... how toset up a fund system for monitoring the market.

I suggest one (simplified),of probably many, many,and varied systems. The system will hold the TSP and other accounts, and can be customized to your own preference. It uses your computer, minimizes your research time, and gives you a good picture of whats going on out there, but, no crystal ball (sorry).

In your computer brouser, in Favorites, make a folder i.e., Financial. In Financial make at least 3 sub folders: Market Monitors, My Financials, and Technical Analysis. More can be added later (at your choise).

In Market Monitors I put all of my monitors, some of the ones I like are: barchart, bigcharts, CBS MarketWatch, CNN Money, Incrediblecharts, Investopedia, LendingTree, Morningstar, Reuters, Stockcharts, TSPMoney, TSPTalk, USAToday Markets, and Yahoo Finance.

In My Financials I put all account sites, such as the TSP Thrift Savings Plan web site, and other account(s) sites. Note: CBS analysis can place and list all funds in a chart portfolio which is kind of neat if you have other accounts in a portfolio.

In Technical Analysis (TA),I list all funds (individually) by place and type i.e., "TSP Technical Analysis for C S&P 500 Index $SPX", and each fund has it's own link to a technical analysis chart and information at finance yahoo. C=$SPX, F=AGG, S=^DWCP, I=EFA. To place an analysis chart in the TA folder, lets say-- the F fund (AGG). Go to http://finance.yahoo.com enter symbol AGG and click GO, this will take you to Quotes & Info., click on technical analysis in Charts.Done. Now you can add it to Favorites in Financial/TA.

The Yahoo Tech. Analysis chart has a lot of variables. You can change ranges, use different types, scales, sizes. Experiment with moving averages, and EMAs. Use different indicators, overlays, and comparisons.

Do you need individual fund charts and info. Experience has told me, Yes.....They (funds) all react in different ways, i.e., stockcharts/gallery view/ $SPX/ has a very good (complex) chart of the S&P 500. Worth viewing for the C-fund, or general indicators.

When someone says that they are using EMAs, you can look it up in your monitors (definitions and explainations), test it out on your Yahoo fund chart, and say OH! Thats what a 20 day EMA looks like.

Hope I've been of help, or at least indicated adirection to provide some useful information. Remember TSP is a do-it-your-self system. We manage our own accounts. Options are to buy and hold, stay in the G-fund (Granny), guess, or try and time investement to minimize loss and increase gains; by buying low and selling high.

If you find a interesting site, let me know.

And, please be careful out there.

 

[tsptalk]

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Thanks for the info Spaf!

 

[Spaf]

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Hi Tom!

Got a correction: The S&P 500 for Yahoo can be found by symbol ^GSPC, or I believe ^SPX will also work. The Stockcharts site uses $SPX.

 

[Cinderella]

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Spaf wrote:

"How to".... how to set up a fund system for monitoring the market...

Very helpful..... Thank you Spaf.

 

[Spaf]

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Hi C! Where U ben hiding?

FYI ......One of our members (MT) thinks stocks are bad till about Oct 7th, and the last 2 wks of Oct should be good for the S fund.

Tom indicated that late September is not a great time historically to be invested, but October is. In his Seasonality chart, the chart indicated for October 14 updays compared to 9 down days.

The Yahoo P-SAR is indicating a sell on TSP tracked stocks for the last several days, maybe this will change, but who knows?

We have oil, hurricanes, and some missed earnings, plus a lot of the marketnews is not upbeat. I am going to stay in the hanger with the G and F funds till I see better weather,or someone blows a bugle.:zz

 

[Spaf]

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Another cycle!

Are we going into another of these cycles? The last one started about July 5 at about 1146 , hit a low in August 16 at 1060, and then crept up to 1131 on September 21. Peak to peak that took about 78 days, the bounce up to 1131 took 36 days

The April to July cycle had a low of +-1086, the July to September cycle had a low of 1060. Trending downward, as to where the cycles find resistance to start back upward.

Are we going to put a brake on the cycles, or are we committed to them? :?

The market talk for today (9-27)was expressed as: Crude gains and broker bearishness on tech take toll on U.S. stocks.

Our stock funds are roller coasters! If we don't market time them then we could suffer a loss..... Feburary to date. The bearish trend is not good unless we adjust our fund accordingly. Not a easy thing to do, unless we stay on top of the market, and without a crystal ball, what ever, help is needed (in the short term) and, will greatly be appreciated.

Thank You! And please continue your talk, be careful out there!

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

Another cycle!

Are we going into another of these cycles? The last one started about July 5 at about 1146 , hit a low in August 16 at 1060, and then crept up to 1131 on September 21. Peak to peak that took about 78 days, the bounce up to 1131 took 36 days

The April to July cycle had a low of +-1086, the July to September cycle had a low of 1060. Trending downward, as to where the cycles find resistance to start back upward.

Are we going to put a brake on the cycles, or are we committed to them? :?

The market talk for today (9-27)was expressed as: Crude gains and broker bearishness on tech take toll on U.S. stocks.

Our stock funds are roller coasters! If we don't market time them then we could suffer a loss..... Feburary to date. The bearish trend is not good unless we adjust our fund accordingly. Not a easy thing to do, unless we stay on top of the market, and without a crystal ball, what ever, help is needed (in the short term) and, will greatly be appreciated.

Thank You! And please continue your talk, be careful out there!

If you pay attention to my old system, I'm looking for a pull back in the S fund to at least 12.19. I believe this should happen about mid to late Oct. :^



M_M

 

[Spaf]

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M_M

Sorry, but I don't have information on your system ?? [Wouldn't mind seeing it]

If you think theS fund is headed to 12.19 thats going to be a pretty good reduction (now 12.73). And, mid to late October! Thats going to disapoint a lot of folks. Not to say their predictions!

However, listening to your advice, I may have to make some improvements (creature comforts) in the hanger. Lets see maybe a bar by the west wall, and a ............

 

[TheProphet]

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I am not a "prohet" neither have a crystal ball to read the future;-)

but my personalopinion is

The market will be testing early inOctober the bottoms of August...

Dow below 9814... perhaps 9771-9971..

S&P below 1163...

andC and S Funds below 11.25 and 11.87

Then I willdrive into and get the ride of the new big cycle drive by

oil prices with political intentions...

Debate days seems to be triggers...for swings... and temptationtovery short

profits;-) Short Term Trend is Down... Long term trend Bullish...

Leon

 

[TheProphet]

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I PROFIT FROM THE CYCLES... ;-)

THE GAME IS ALWAYS BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH... ;-)

Leon

 

[tsptalk]

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I loved the action today. Unless something wild happens, I still plan to be fully invested for Friday (Thursday transfer). Looks like others jumped the gun today although I kind of expected an up day after looking at the seasonality chart this morning. It's nice to see this stall near the 200-day MA on the S&P 500. As Imentioned the other day, it's anice place for a pullback to end(200-day MA and a 50% fibonacci retracement).

Tom

 

[Spaf]

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Tom

May go along with you. [100% S][?] Need more data......

 

[tsptalk]

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S and maybe I fund. I was going to write about that in tomorrow's comments. There is reason to believe the dollar may fall at the end of the weak because of the G7 meeting Friday which should effect Asian currencies.

 

[Spaf]

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Tuesdays upturn could start the pricing to pull above the moving averages and the parabolic SAR could signal a return to stocks. Could! I'll wait another day to get better signals. Tom speaks favorable about the seasonality charts. No hurricanes close, but it's still the season. Oil should be pumping from the gulf. The market didn't seem to react unfavorable to the $50 per barrel price clip today (?). I'll check comments tomorrow and check the stats. If the weather looks good, maybe I'll get out of the hanger. It's no fun justsitting!

The market said that oil holds steady, and that Caterpiller popped up 3.3%. Thats good because caterpillers normally inch along! But the oil??

:?

Be careful out there

 

[Mike]

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The market isn't surprised by the oil price of $50, so it's not going to respond to it more than it already has.

If the price pushes into the $55-60 range, we could be in trouble.

 

[TheProphet]

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Oil Continues Upward March

Threat in Nigeria Rattles a Market Already on Edge

By Justin Blum and Nell Henderson

Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 29, 2004; Page E01

Crude oil prices jumped beyond $50 a barrel yesterday, renewing concerns that sustained high energy costs will further weaken the U.S. economy.

The surge came after rebels in Nigeria threatened to interfere with oil production, upsetting a market already on edge over domestic supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Ivan. Lost production and a decline in imports because of the storm led to a reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories.

[align=center]
-->At the close, U.S. benchmark crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange stood at a record $49.90 per barrel. Adjusted for inflation, the price was still below its peak in 1981. [/align]
Oil trading has turned increasingly volatile as the thirst for oil in China and elsewhere has pushed production to its limits, leaving little ability to respond to sudden interruptions in supply. In the past year, the price of oil has soared 76 percent.

While analysts said they think prices eventually will moderate to the $30 range, they acknowledged that their forecasts could be thrown off by world events. The slightest disruption in an oil producing country -- or rumor of disruption -- jolts traders and causes them to bid up prices.

"In the environment we have today, noise gets prices," said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of PIRA Energy Group, an international energy consulting firm. "If you hear something, you have to react to it and then find out if it's true or not."

If oil prices remain in the $50 range for several months, the repercussions could harm the economy. Employment likely would be further depressed, sapping overall consumer spending, many analysts said. Businesses that rely on oil could suffer losses and pass on costs to consumers.

"Fifty-dollar-a-barrel oil will keep the U.S. economy spinning its wheels but not gaining traction," said Richard A. Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research Corp.

U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the early summer -- with the job market, consumer spending and industrial production all weakening significantly -- after oil prices rose above $40 a barrel in May.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which generates about 40 percent of the world's oil, has failed in its recent efforts to bring down prices. OPEC lacks the ability to pump much more oil, analysts said, eliminating its most effective tool in cooling the run-up.

Oil Continues Upward March

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, yesterday announced that it has the ability to pump another 1.5 million barrels a day if customers request it. But some analysts doubted the kingdom's claims and said much of the additional oil was of a less-desirable grade.

In recent days, gasoline prices have edged higher, and analysts said they expected prices to increase more in coming weeks because of the run-up in crude prices. Regular gas averaged about $1.91 a gallon nationally yesterday, according to the AAA auto club. A gallon of gas remains below its peak in May.

[align=center]
-->During the summer, as oil prices rose, pump prices moderated, mostly because refiners had produced a heavy supply of gasoline. [/align]
In recent weeks, supplies of crude oil and diesel fuel have declined sharply, mostly because of the hurricane, which disrupted production and prevented tankers carrying oil from docking.

Trucking companies in particular are suffering from increasing diesel prices, which AAA reported were at a record, unadjusted for inflation, of nearly $2.02 yesterday.

United Parcel Service Inc., which buys both jet and diesel fuel for its fleet, saw its bill rise 28.5 percent, to $320 million, in the quarter ended in June, said spokeswoman Susan Rosenberg. The company has passed fuel costs on to consumers by adding a surcharge for air delivery.

The nation's airlines are reeling from the recent jet fuel increases. Rising fuel costs will add $6 billion to the carriers' expenses this year, according to the Air Transport Association.

Continued attacks on oil pipelines in Iraq and production problems elsewhere have helped push prices higher in recent weeks.

The latest area of concern is Nigeria, where militia members are threatening to declare war and attack petroleum operations. The country produces about 2.3 million barrels a day, or 3 percent of the world's crude oil output, but much of it includes the most sought-after grades.

Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Cos., which is active in the country, withdrew nonessential personnel from the Niger Delta, said Simon Buerk, a London-based spokesman for the company. Citing policy, Buerk would not say whether production in the country was reduced as a result of the personnel withdrawal.

Oil Continues Upward March

In the United States, production remains significantly diminished because of hurricane damage. The Energy Department has allowed two companies to borrow oil from the nation's emergency stockpile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to make up for shortages caused by the storm. The department announced yesterday that a third company, ConocoPhillips, would receive oil from the reserve totaling 1.5 million barrels.

But analysts said the oil released from the reserve was not enough to bring down prices.

[align=center]
-->After prices crossed $50 yesterday, the presidential campaign of Democratic nominee Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) said that President Bush had failed to do enough to bring down prices. Reed Dickens, a spokesman for the Bush campaign, dismissed the criticism, saying the Kerry campaign was "heavy on criticism and light on ideas." [/align]
Rising oil demand worldwide is the central element pushing the market higher. Cambridge Energy Research Associates forecasts the world's total demand at 82 million barrels per day, an average of 2.25 million barrels per day higher than last year.

James Burkhard, director of world oil analysis for Cambridge, said he expects prices to remain above $40 for the rest of the year, with fluctuations based on developments in oil-producing countries. "There's a lot of wild cards out in the market right now, and most of those wild cards are negative events which would spur continuing upward prices in oil," Burkhard said.

The impact on the economy of sustained $50 oil prices should not lead to a recession, said Yamarone of Argus Research. He and other economists foresee a slowing in the economy's growth rate at such prices, but not an outright decline in the nation's economic output. "But that doesn't mean it's not going to feel like a recession" to workers if the economy grows too slowly to prevent a rise in joblessness, he said.

Many forecasters predict the economy will grow between 3 and 4 percent next year but are ready to shave those figures by roughly one-half percentage point if oil prices stay around $50 a barrel, depending on a variety of factors.

"The longer it persists, the greater the danger," said Robert V. DiClemente, chief U.S. economist for Citigroup Inc. "The quicker prices rise and translate into final prices of products, the more damage they do."

But oil price increases cause nowhere near the same economic disruption as they did decades ago, when they frequently preceded recessions, because the U.S. economy is far more energy-efficient.

"Oil doesn't have the damaging effects it once had," DiClemente said. "But $50 oil is not $30 oil. . . . The economy could really prove disappointing if these prices continue."

 

[TheProphet]

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Spaf,

Whatare your strategics ?

Would you please explain your moving averages you use,

the parabolic SAR and the seasonality charts ?

I would like to educate myself...

Thank you for your kindness...

Had you look in yahoo the historical prices of the 1999 year for this days ?

Technically today may be an entry point... but there are aome fundamentals

such a economic indicators jobs, consumer condfidence, oil prices etc... that make it

very risky... What do you think ? Any wisdom from You ? from Tom? from MT ?

Leon



Leon

 

[TheProphet]

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Tom,

I usually consider also the price of the Funds...

S and I are at higher prices... 6% or so higher...

Leon

 

[cowboy]

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I went 100% F today in hopes to catch a small raise tomorrow if anyone wants to know. I was currently G 100% for the last week. If the markets take a down turn on Thursday I may jump in to S or I and maybe C. If you followed any of my posts I was expecting a drop in I which it did but it was at the top of my prediction, so I stayed put in G. My thinking is these markets may fall on Thursday againand may go up on Friday. Will play this short.