Market Talk

[Spaf]

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Ending last week stocks were in a uplift according to market watch. Oil appeared to be a major factor in worries. Hurricanes were undecided, but economic indicators will report housing, claims and etc.

Ford appeared to have a tank of gas. Prescriptions were sneezy. And CISCO may be slipping in grease.

Hopefully, next week will be a good one. Markets have increased gradually. Where a ralley under this season (hurricanes and oil) would be nervious. It seems that the market wants to respond, but has stiff opposition (really)!

Attached is the latest market updates of S&P from our friends at yahoo! I overlayed the 20 day moving average (red), and the parabolic SAR (dots).

Lets talk and make some greeen!

 

[Spaf]

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Currently I am holding allocations at 0-0-30-45-25.

Proportionally refiguring the TSP returns on C-S-I funds, for this month to date, calculates out as 31-47-22.

What the market will do on Monday and through the week will be to try and hold the current trend (my opinion). The trend has been and is a steady gentle slope upward. It has gotten buffeted by hurricanes,slips occasionally in the oil, and fizzles when it hears bad reports from major firms such as Coke. However, the uptrend has held, in rather small increments. As Uncle pete would say "The egg is proportional to the chicken and in keeping with the environment".

For now, it is tracking pretty close to the trends of presidential election years as indicated by tsptalk (Tom).

Events may alter my somewhat bullish attitude. But, I keep one finger on the G-fund button, my parachute.

Attached is a chart of the S&P for the month (Aug 16 -to date). What interested me was how tight were the highs and lows, and the somewhat determination of the market to follow the upward, but gradually rising trend, in the current environment.

Kind of like playing poker and holding cards close to your vest (( RE: See Warren Beatty in the film "McCabe & Mrs. Miller " (1971)) love it, as history repeats itself!

You got to defend what it is yours!

Be careful out there! :^

 

[Spaf]

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Uh Oh!

The moving average is barely holding, while the Parabolic SAR is saying to go short.

These are initial indications as of 09-20-04, but observed!

My sentiment says to stay long in stocks (this being a presidential year and all). But, my system says to go short (oil, war, hurricanes, company reports, and the Fed). So with the cyclic market and the bearish overtones I will be effecting a TSP fund transfer to G=25% and F=75% for 09-21-04. Bonds don't seem to be reacting to the rise in interest rates??

I'll watch the opening market reports for Tuesday, and if it looks like a rally, I'll cancel my transfer, otherwise I will take my toys and go home for a while.

Attached is a chart from S&P with moving average (20days) and the parabolic SAR.

:?

 

[Spaf]

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Tuesday morning market check. AM stocks were up. Crazy market! Cancelling transfers for now. Postponing decision. for another day.

 

[Cinderella]

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Spaf wrote:

Tuesday morning market check.  AM stocks were up.  Crazy market!  Cancelling transfers for now.  Postponing decision. for another day.

Does your investment system have a set cut off price above the 30-day average price of each share that indicates when you should sell? If not, how do you determine when the time is right to lock in your gains by moving from stocks to G fund?

 

[Spaf]

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See item 2. at http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/parabolic_sar.htm

COB yesterday the parabolic exit was indicated, however the moving average (MA)was still slightly upward. It seemed like a exit could be nearing. I loaded a TSP transfer to G and F, but wanted to wait for Tuesdays AM market report to see if the market wouldtrend up or down.Stocks were up, the moving average could hold so I cancelled my transfer.

 

[Mike]

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Nice up day... the I fund really took off. :shock:

 

[Spaf]

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Mike...hi!

Today was a good day. Yep, the I fund was up 0.23.

Been using the Parabolic SAR at Yahoo. There are certain rules in using it, and I need some more experience. I think I've got a handle on it now. It threw me a curve yesterday, until I revisited the rules, and saw what was on track for today.

There could be some smooth sailing in the future, and I'm always hopeful that it will be tomorrow. The fact is we are in a bearish market with up and down cycles, a trending market. A good market was the bull 0f 2003. Since Feburary we have had a very unfriendly market, it's a roller coaster! I've settled in on using the parabolic SAR, moving averages, and sentimentto time the market. I've just got to get the rules straight. I get nervous and have to remember to hold the emotion and abide by the rules.

Weare trying to play a market that is bigger then ourselves. When you think the market is going down, it goes up.

I have observed that predictions by the analysist (at various web sites) and most of the analysistincluded a "disclaimer". Really!

It's up to us! Good, bad, or indifferent!

Mike....Have a good day, and be careful out there!

 

[Mike]

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I'm a long-termer and don't have a very big retirement balance (yet), so I don't have to worry about this as much as the rest of you do. However, that won't stop me from keeping my eyes open for a profit opportunity (which is why I'm waiting for the I fund to retreat a bit and give me a better buy-in price).

This will be a nice test of the market's upward resolve. Interest rate hike + upbeat fed comments on the economy + continuing highoil prices andearnings warnings. If we can gain in this environment, look out.

 

[Spaf]

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Effecting a transfer today. The market is too choppy, up, down, up, down. I agree with Tom the market is uncommitted as to a direction. I thought I was getting sea sick, I'll be out of the boat, and sitting on the beach for a while (G=25%, and F=75%).

 

[Mike]

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Oil is up over a buck and the market is definitely doing its best impression of a pull-back. S&P is down about 14 points. Heh.

 

[tsptalk]

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My target for the pullback was / is 1110 - 1115. We have already pulled back to the 20-day moving average (1115)so I'm getting ready to get back in if I see 1110 or lower (50-day MA). Also, the 200-day MA is just below 1100, another possible target. This is healthy in my opinion... so far

 

[Spaf]

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I would agree that the market is healthy. The Fed said so too. But, ever since the hurricane, the market keeps slipping, slidding and falling on it's face in the oil. Until they get the oil problem solved? I been hearing about oil since the first of the year, would someone please buy the market a quart of oil!

 

[Cinderella]

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Spaf wrote:

Effecting a transfer today.  The market is too choppy, up, down, up, down.  I agree with Tom the market is uncommitted as to a direction.  I thought I was getting sea sick,  I'll be out of the boat, and sitting on the beach for a while (G=25%, and F=75%). 

You cancelled your stock sell off yesterday when the market was high, but today you are selling stocks. Are you making this transfer because you are sea sick or did the Parabolic SAR indicate a sell? Just trying to understand the SAR.

 

[Spaf]

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The parabolic SAR gave an elert day before yesterday (red dot) but the moving average was still upward. It was a maybe. Yesterdays market said good at start, so I cancelled. Today it is all down. Yahoo will not update their chart for the the current P-SAR until later this evening. But the chart at

http://www.stockchart.com/gallery/?$SPX

did not look good, It doesn't look like the P-SAR and MA will hold with the amount of down today. My system indicators are not all in, but enough were in to judge the drop today as too much for now. I feel that the sentiment on oilis too heavy. Maybe when they get the gulf wells going and the reserves back up, it won't be such a big factor. I hope not.

(The web page is not coming out right??????)

 

[Spaf]

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On Monday the Parabolic SAR (P-SAR) indicated a possible exit. However the total criteria was not met as the moving averages (MA) for 20 days was still trending upward.A Tuesday AM check of the market and the ralley that followed was a false indicator (from hindsight).Wednesday appeared to be a confirmatiom of Monday. Rechecking the market for Tuesday, the 5daychart athttp://finance.yahoo.com/ gave me a better picture of the Tuesdayfluke.

Ivan has returned to the gulf. And, there are a lot of his brothers and sisters off the south east coast. I feel that the oil problem is here as a plague, till etc., and the hurricane season plays out, this mess has been going on since the first of the year!

Company earningsseem to be all over the board. It's not good when Coke is down and Twinkies file for bankruptcy!Whats left?

Folks say that rising interest rates causes bonds to go down. Historically this may be true. However, someone forgot totell the bond market this rule. Shuuu!

Therefore I willbe staying at G=25%, and F=75% till I see a change for the better.

Chart attached. Be careful out there!

 

[Mike]

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The bond market is going against the historical norm because there is still a lot of hesitancy to invest in stocks right now (which leads people to go the bond route instead). I don't expect this to hold long-term.

 

[Spaf]

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Mike.

I agree with you. The bond market is on my screen too!

Pray tell what are you doing posting a reply at 2:53AM in the morning!

o

 

[Spaf]

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This is a recap of where we are at.

Also an update for new members!

Please see the attached chart on this post.

2003 was a good (bullish) year. You could make some profits if invested in some of the new TSP funds. However, a lot of TSP participants were in the G and C funds, missing a lot of $. Mainly, because the information was not out there. This site came into being because of the authors' (tsptalk) concern of as stated "come grow with us",and his programming skills of putting this site together.

The stock market was as fickle as fate. After 2003 the market was buffeted by turbulent economic conditions. And that is what we are trying to sort out, the turbulance continues. Since 2003 the market has been ever so sloping downward (bearish) but, it has gone through 3 up and down cycles where market timing (buying low and selling high) at certain points could produce a profit. Centerline (excluding the G fund) the stocks you had in January 04 would be worth the same price today. Some other web sites indicate a 0-4% profit (Wow!I'm not going to argue their stats).

The problem is to understand the big picture, and not to buy in on the deceptions.

Some say that historically the market has madean average increase of 10%. Wellunless your name is "historically" and you make up the stats then this is ok. For the rest of us humansit is false. When you got in was important, when you get out is importnt, and what you did inbetween was important, just for you, just for your own time frame. The big picture has to be understood.

Be careful out there!

 

[learning]

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I am out of the market looking at getting back in. Why do people chose the C over the S fund? The S fund seems to do better. I think that the run up will start soon. October. The gov is talking about opening the oil reserve and that will help oil prices. Down side hurricans seem to be comming out of the wood work big time this year.:X Pray all fair well in those areas.

(I'm learing give me time.)