Market Talk

[Skip]

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With the way the market took off late today I don't see much of a pullback you might see some small profit taking and sideways trading.... Support held like a rock today at 10800 for the dow... If you look at last years sp500 chart NOV DEC had only small dips and the buying jumped in so as not to miss the action.... I think the dow and sp500 will catch up with the other indexies... They have a way to go !!!! We can stay over sold for a long time.... New money coming in as the sideline was waiting to see the fed comments .... Looks good.... long since sp 1177.8 10-20-05 2005 has been flat.. maybe this is the breakout coming !! Dollar also pull back some...

Wait and see is all you can do and stay nibble...and trade the trend...

Skip

 

[Skip]

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This is what moved the market today..


Federal Reserve policy-makers worried about inflation risks at their meeting on November 1, but were mulling how to lay the groundwork for ending a rate-rise cycle that has lasted for a year and a half, meeting minutes released on Tuesday showed. "All members believed it important to continue removing monetary policy accommodation in order to check upside risks to inflation and keep inflation expectations contained, but noted that policy setting would need to be increasingly sensitive to incoming economic data," the minutes said.
Though no explicit timetable was discussed for ending the rate-rise campaign that began in June 2004, "some members cautioned that risks of going too far with the tightening process could also eventually emerge," the minutes said.
Stock prices rose on the hope that rate rises may soon end, as did prices for U.S. debt securities, as investors took heart from the Fed's wariness about going too high with increases. But the dollar's value slipped against other currencies.


msn.com

 

[Spaf]

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Skip wrote:

Wait and see is all you can do and stay nibble...and trade the trend...

Sorry Skip,
I can be nimble with my trader account, but not with TSP having a 1-2 day delay. I could be wrong but I see the possibility of a bubble (trend). To me the risk ain't worth it.
Call me conservative, tis my decision. Hope it ain't a bubble!

I want to eat the turkey, not the other way around!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Rod]

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Mike wrote:

Everybody continues expecting a pullback, and it just refuses to happen. :shock:

I will probably duck to (G) for next week on seasonality data alone.:^

God Bless

 

[Mike]

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I am bullish longer term and see no reason to step aside here. The pullback (if it materializes) is probably too difficult to try to time to buy back in at its bottom before the advance resumes. Who knows, we may end up going sideways for awhile instead of dropping.

Approaching the tail end of rate hikes and still seeing nice economic growth in the GDP, I don't see anything to justify jumping out of the market.

One thing to consider is the I fund - as we approach the end of these hikes, that will be bearish on the dollar, since foreign countries will now start to catch up to us in their interest rates - which makes our currency / t-bills less attractive to investors. I'm already 25% in the I fund and am reluctant to add to this position for the time being - but I might be singing a different tune in January.

 

[The_Technician]

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Today's action is on the verge of Out of Norm.....You know I've been expecting a pull back this week, even just for a few days.....the Fed announcement today was unexpected....I wanted to be in the F fund earlier but again I was waiting for a minor pullback which still may come.....only thing is, it may not pull back much at all....therefore a pullbackis not worth waiting for.....the F fund should be a goodie for some time to come and the G fund will underperform it....I almost transferred into it today since I pulled out of S the other day.....but I couldn't get over the fact this morning that it may take a 2-5 tenths of a drop and I didn't feel like taken a drop right away...

Now the S fund is in the extreme....it has to come to terms with a reduced number of willing buyers real soon, its time for such of an occurance to happen and the holiday should help it along, or we can just go unrealistic and continue to go skyward....this market is really unpredictable in a run up mode like this....You never really know what you will get tomorrow....its all a drastic speculative scene....that 8% drop in the S fund could be 11-12% drop by the time the market decides to settle some....

Its a good time to conserve and not get kicked in the teeth with the market as high as it is....

:dude:

 

[vectorman]

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Always great reading:


Primary Bull Market - Stage 1 - Accumulation
Hamilton noted that the first stage of a bull market was largely indistinguishable from the last reaction rally of a bear market. Pessimism, which was excessive at the end of the bear market, still reigns at the beginning of a bull market. It is a period when the public is out of stocks, the news from corporate America is bad and valuations are usually at historical lows. However, it is at this stage that the so-called "smart money" begins to accumulate stocks. This is the stage of the market when those with patience see value in owning stocks for the long haul. Stocks are cheap, but nobody seems to want them. This is the stage where Warren Buffet stated in the summer of 1974 that now was the time to buy stocks and become rich. Everyone else thought he was crazy.

In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg peaks and starts to head back down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement (a correction of the first leg up). If it is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.

Primary Bull Market - Stage 2 - Big Move
The second stage of a primary bull market is usually the longest, and sees the largest advance in prices. It is a period marked by improving business conditions and increased valuations in stocks. Earnings begin to rise again and confidence starts to mend. This is considered the easiest stage to make money as participation is broad and the trend followers begin to participate.

Primary Bull Market - Stage 3 - Excess The third stage of a primary bull market is marked by excessive speculation and the appearance of inflationary pressures. (Dow formed these theorems about 100 years ago, but this scenario is certainly familiar.) During the third and final stage, the public is fully involved in the market, valuations are excessive and confidence is extraordinarily high. This is the mirror image to the first stage of the bull market. A Wall Street axiom: When the taxi cab drivers begin to offer tips, the top cannot be far off.

 

[vectorman]

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If the Dowbreaksout like the NIKKEI, those waiting for a good entry point might not see a good oneverysoon. Even though we will eventually get a pull back, I wonder how long it will last or how deep it will go? Once the NIKKEI broke through 12,000 there wasn't much looking back. If the Dow breaks through 10,950 and holds, then the real big money might come rolling in, even from over seas. It will put those on the sideline under alot pressure to get inas the market keeps working its way up. Think about the peer pressure too, like from co-workers,' What!!!... Your still in the G fund....Your missing out....I've been in stocks and making a ton of money. The stock market is just giving it away'. Don't you just love the suspense. Hey, Birchtree, anymore room on yourark?

 

[grandma]

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vectorman wrote:

Primary Bull Market - Stage 1 - Accumulation
Primary Bull Market - Stage 2 - Big Move
Primary Bull Market - Stage 3 - Excess

Thank you for the reminder, Vectorman.

 

[Shaggy]

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I have a question. How can the I fund be doing so well when the Dollar is continuing to do well. I got out at $16.53 thinking it had to drop because of the dollars rebound. Now I look the fool!!

 

[vectorman]

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Shaggy wrote:

I have a question. How can the I fund be doing so well when the Dollar is continuing to do well. I got out at $16.53 thinking it had to drop because of the dollars rebound. Now I look the fool!!

Been there, done that.TheEuropean and Asian markets will still go up or down effecting the I fund. The strength or weakness of the dollar is a factor in the exchange rate, whichmay give you more gains on an up day with a weak dollar or less gains with a strong dollar. The big hurt is when the over seas market is down and the dollar is up. Also when the TSP police feel they have to make an adjustment to discourage market timing.Use link below after 3:00pm est for current date ( just enter the date, and click Go, if it still shows yesterday) to get an idea for how the I fund did. For today it shows up0.861%, but since an adjustment was made yesterday they may not showmuch of an increase for tonight, we see. The TSP police figured out that I was trying to get in the I fund yesterday at COB, when it was suppose to be down,to try and double dip off the US rally, so they showed the increase last night instead of tonight.:X


http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html

 

[ATCJeff]

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Well I forgot to do the IFT today. Work was a bear and time got away from me....

Anyway, everyone have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Jeff

P.S. I'll try and remember to do the IFT friday morning.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 23, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox continue advance. Dow at best level in over 4 years.

Elsewhere:......Oil prices down, stockpiles up.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at...................1265.61, up +4.38
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.309, up
RSI (strength) at...........73.8*, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...-------
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)...bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............58.71 dn -0.13

Tea Leaves:....................Green and Yellow (too far too fast)


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1254, Trail: 1242.
*RSI=O.B.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Skip]

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well we pulled back from the high today... broke that 10900 !!!

Dow and Sp 500 trying to catch up with the rest of the market....

Being that my system gave a sell sign today I will pull out a bit friday...
Unless we see more run up.... nice run , if we didn't have the sell off at the end I don't think I would of got a sell ... PS swing system 1177 10/20 in out "1265 "for 7.4% not the 5+% showed due to the delay getting in market.... it will be fridays close for the correct exit... Who knows might stay in....
See Chart

 

[Mike]

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Skip, what are your thoughts on the Nikkei chart posted earlier? What was going on that led to such a bullish run-up without any significant dips? :shock:

I think I read somewhere their monetary policy has a 0% interest rate...

 

[learning]

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I pulled out of the I fund for the most part and it was nice to me. However, if you pulled out of the I fund and put into the C or S fund which is what I did look at your profits before you kick yourself. I am happy with my move. However, I make a lot of mistakes I am not the best to follow. As the rush is about pulling out of the market I am thinking of putting more back in just for Friday. Put in today for Friday and pull out Friday for Monday. One day bet if you will. :s/? However I am not a big into a one day bet. So it will not be a lot.

RGDS and it is your retirement, be careful

 

[Greg]

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Tom always says that you can tell what the "Smart Money" thinks about the market conditions by the movement during the last hour (3-4PM). Well, on Wednesday there was a selloff that began at 2:30 and continued to go down till it closed. I didn't hear what caused the selloff. Think it may be a foreshadowing for tomorrow and Monday?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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Greg,

how did you come up with the +/- 1 cent call on the I fund on wednesday??

 

[Birchtree]

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Mike,

May I submit that I have been posting information on the Nikkei 225 in my Birchtree account talk for the past 2 months - might be worth a peek. Even though I'm 100% C in my TSP account, I own an international fund in my wife's retirement account and she is multi-thousands of shares deep.

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

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Dow futures have done a nice flip flop this evening possibly indicating another up day on 11/25.

Due to the so-called seasonality effect there is a good possibility of this rally lasting into the first few days of December. Any dips may be contained on an intra day market basis. That will help if you own individual stocks or ETFs, but not mutual funds. You hold outs may only have to wait 51/2 more days - that's not really too long to wait to get on board the Polar Express. Take care.

Dennis