Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Kingdom News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Nov. 20, 2005


Kingdom News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox advancing!

Vestors gaining confidence in economy and related strength: low inflation, good earnings, and lower lube prices.

Bear chasing season appears to be a big hit.

Elsewhere:...... Spuds and Peaches at 4 year high.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly, and ending.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.................... 1248.27, up +13.55 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at...... +0.219, up +.106 for the week.
RSI (strength) at............ 68.0, up +4.8 for the week; [O.B.=70, O.S.=30].
MACD (trend)...... bullish
S-STO (signal)..... bullish
P-SAR (signal)..... bullish
ROC (change)...... bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............ 56.14, dn -1.66 for the week.

Attachment:......... S&P (4mo) chart ending 11/18. Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, MACD, and RSI.

Tea leaves:................... Green


Yak.

Remarks:................... Holding 0/100 (0-0/35-35-30). Changing to 50/50.
Stops (C:S&P):............ Alert: 1236, Trailing: 1224.

Lube Markers:.............. <64 = ok, 64-69 = worry, >69 = critical.

Weekly TSP Returns:...1 Wk: G=+.01, F=+.03, C=+.20, S=+.23, I=+.30
2 Wk: G=+.02, F=+.09, C=+.32, S=+.34, I=+.27

 

[biggdog1]

imported post

I was just wondering why is there no sports and comix section in the weekly ?

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Hey, Skip...put your number in your personal thread....that a way we can find it again .....

I was kinda expecting a minor pull back Friday or an all out 2.5% rise in the S fund....looks like we got a minor increase instead ....then I would expect ahiatus for a few days.....could be we may experience a 4% drop sometime in the next week of so........then we should get on with it......


Of course that's all speculation at this point, but we all have them........I still think we're going to the 570's by or about early to Mid Jan....



:^

 

[Greg]

imported post

al-Zarqawi Killed by Explosives, Report
By Jim Roberts
Nov 20, 2005

Iraq's al-Qaeda terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi may have been killed in Iraq on Sunday according to a report that is posted on the "Jerusalem Post'web site.

Is al-Zarqawi dead?

As always take these reports with a healthy dose of skepticism as they have been wrong on every other occasion. However, this will be major news if proven true.

JPost:

The Elaph Arab media website reported on Sunday that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the head of the al-Qaeda in Iraq terror group, may have been killed in Iraq on Sunday afternoon when eight terrorists blew themselves up in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

The unconfirmed report claimed that the explosions occurred while coalition forces surrounded the house in which al-Zarqawi was hiding. American and Iraqi forces are looking into the report.

[align=center][/align]No confirmation or comment from any official government sources as of yet.

--Jim Roberts

© Copyright by NationalLedger.com

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Greg,

Thanks - this would be exceptionally great news. Maybe good intelligence finally paid off - we certainly needed a break from the political minority.

 

[robo]

imported post

Looks like the market is headed for the 1270's.... Buy the dips if we get any.... Maybe a chance early next week, but the support level continues to move up.....

Comments from a Tech:

***** Friday Nov 18 2:35 pm ET ************

The markets are overbought in all time frames; daily, weekly, monthly. We need to stick to our Stop levels. Perhaps next week will bring some selling, but it is beginning to look like we are entering a period where sell-offs will be bought back up. A retracement next week would be good, but is not a sure thing. Last hour trading is showing no weakness.

 

[robo]

imported post

Technician wrote:

could be we may experience a 4% drop sometime in the next week of so........then we should get on with it......

The Tech's I follow are now talkingearly to midDecember for that kind of pullback..... But as Birchtree pointed out no cares about overbought now.... Most are in the buy mode for nexk week.If Tom gets the pullback he is concerned about that could be the time frame..... Best thing to do is stay invested and put your stops in place.... Once we get to the 1270's thetechnicals for a pullback will increase dramatically.... This has been a nice run and fund managers will want to take some profits soon.... But for now, "Let the Good Times Roll."

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

imported post

overbought and oversold conditions can last for a long time..DWCP overbought from 10/27/04 - 1/03/05 with only one or two one or two daypullbacks inbetween.

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

Does anyone have any resources that speak to the potential movement of the US Dollar based on the possible interest rate rise in Europe?

 

[James48843]

imported post

Strong from here on out to the end of the year. I see a Santaclaus rally in the making here. I'm in fully. Hang on for the ride up.

 

[Skip]

imported post

JOVARN wrote:

Does anyone have any resources that speak to the potential movement of the US Dollar based on the possible interest rate rise in Europe?

Well if the euro rases their interest rate the dollar will drop for sure.... That will be a good time to be in the I fund.... Search msn.com as I read 1 or 2 news clips on it... How much movement is any ones guess.... ...

Skip

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 21, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox advance, again. Confidence is high, stox are overbought, and taxi cab drivers are beginning to offer tips.

Elsewhere:......Major cart manufacturer is regrouping.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at...................1254.85, up +6.58
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.181, up
RSI (strength) at...........70.3*, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............57.21, up +0.49

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 50/50.
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1243, Trail: 1231.
*RSI=O.B.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[robo]

imported post

Tom wrote:

I am still strongly leaning on the side of the market getting ready to pullback. But that pullback may have to wait until after the holiday.

The Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving have strong historic tendencies to see the market advance. One well-known technical analyst suggests that if there isn't a rally of at least a half of one percent for the two days combined, traders should be sellers at the close on Friday.


The reversal in long positions by commercial hedges is once again most clearly seen from inspection of the holdings in NASDAQ 100 futures. As a group they have switched from 35,000 contracts long to 15,000 contracts short in this space of four weeks.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Today looked like a steady Freddie: new all time highs in transports (4156) Wilshire 5000 (12,570) and NYSE composite (7676). This is not a rendition of 4Q 2004. This market will have a natural propensity to try and headfake as many participants as it can. Are we in a Santa Clause rally that will get stronger and last into the New Year? I really think so - it'll soon be time to pay if you want to play. More new highs to come just around the corner - R2K, S&P400 Mid cap again, OEX, and eventually the DJIA will confirm at 10,997. I believe I saw somewhere that S&P 500 at 1368 was a Fib 61.8% retracement. Only the bulls will be buying on Friday - market closes at 1300 hours. I'm finally past hope and into relief trying to relax a little. Take care.

Dennis

 

[Wimpy]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Elsewhere:......Major cart manufacturer is regrouping.

I talked to my schmuck buddy with the comb over today and he said the regrouping of GM (he drives a Vette) was just a head fake. He feels GM is actually going to hire an additional 30,000 employees, versus laying 30,000 offand additionally offer a two for one sale onVettesto anyonewho can fog a mirror.

I'm not buyin'his baloney. And as far as other equities go, the old saying, "As GM goes, so goes the country", probably applies.

 

[Mike]

imported post

The "big three" auto companies represent a shrinking market share and a diminishing portion of the US economy. Why choose any of them as a primary indicator as to where the economy and country are headed? :?

Pick a bigger company that is involved in more than one part of the economy if you want to find an indicator. Better yet, just look at how the various sectors are performing - there is plenty to look at: semiconductors, financials, pharmaceuticals, energy, retail, et al.

Why you'd pick automobile manufacturing (an area the economy has been moving away from for years) is beyond me.

 

[puertorico]

imported post

the market right now right here is unstopable
look unstopable
onlygreeennnnnnnnnn
Im very very happy
this month have been good to me
babystep indicator are green for the rest of the week.

 

[Rod]

imported post

puertorico wrote:

the market right now right here is unstopable
look unstopable
onlygreeennnnnnnnnn
Im very very happy
this month have been good to me
babystep indicator are green for the rest of the week.

It's been good to me too, Bro! I've gained nearly 5% since Oct 25.:^

Now I'm contemplating what to do for next week...:shock:

God Bless

 

[puertorico]

imported post

Rod I'M happy you got it :^

Mine Is luck but have been
my best month ever .

...in october I was looking november action for 2004
after I saw that november was a pretty good 2004
and I decide to get full invest in november no matter what
& a least to be invested 30% . So, I have
been 100 % to 30% a least .Right now 100%. THinking
to get out on friday .Because have to be a little pullback
then get in after the first week of december . Is a good
season to be in & the market already was down months
ago.Ant nowtHE WAY IS UP I think we have to be in ,no matter
some days down because is coming the best on the way up.
We are in the way up .

The olnly think is let me thinking is 1 dec euro want to
get rate hike . Wonder how gonna affect the dollar or euro.

Plus the dollar hikes on dec 13.

But for shure I want to get full invest again after the first
week of dec. or after the second week . Is to good to miss
that one plus we are in the way up .

That was my history ,after I see november 2004 & this nov.
has been identically the same action .

Good luck Rod for the rest of the YEar :^

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

FOREX - US DOLLAR WEAKER VS YEN - NOV 22, 2005 Tuesday November 22, 2005, 7:49 pm

Yahoo: TOKYO, Nov 22 Asia Pulse - The US dollar was buying 119.09-11 yen at 17:17 Japan time, down 0.18 yen.

ASIA PULSE

___________________________________________________________________________________

Business Report:

Dollar stabilises as ECB rate hike prospects dwindle
November 22, 2005

Tokyo - The dollar steadied in Asian trade on Tuesday after clawing back lost ground against the euro as prospects of a series of rises in eurozone interest rates were seen as fading, dealers said.

The dollar edged up slightly to ¥119.05 in Tokyo morning trade from ¥119.01 in New York late Monday.

The euro gained to $1.1730 from $1.1726 in New York and to ¥139.64 here from ¥139.60.

Trading was somewhat subdued ahead of national holidays in Japan on Wednesday and the United States on Thursday, dealers said.

The euro retreated from a two-week high of $1.1832 recorded on Monday, hit by remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) chief Jean-Claude Trichet which dampened expectations of a series of interest rate increases in the eurozone.

"The comments from Trichet were a trigger for the market squaring dollar-long (bought) position," said Toru Sasaki, currency analyst at JP Morgan Chase Bank.

"The market trend remains for a strong dollar and the US currency is expected to rise moderately this week with little new incentives," he said.

In comments in the European Parliament in Brussels, Trichet said that the central bank was "ready" for an interest rate increase but that he did not see a "series" of hikes.

Markets were caught by surprise after Trichet said Friday in a speech that after holding its key lending rate at 2.0 percent since June 2003, "I consider that the governing council is ready to take a decision on interest rates."

The remarks gave the euro a brief fillip as dealers bet that the ECB would raise interest rates on December 1 for the first time in over five years, narrowing the yield differential with the United States.

But with the US Federal Reserve expected to continue raising its key lending rate from the current 4.00 percent, dealers said it would take more than one rate rise in the eurozone to halt the greenback's ascent.

"Without a series of ECB rate hikes, the US will maintain a juicy interest rate advantage over the eurozone, serving to support the US dollar," National Australia Bank currency strategists said in a market note issued in Sydney. - AFP

____________________________________________________________

When to make the Jump. Its easy to make money in a Bull run keeping it is another issue

Good Luck to all