Market Talk

[vectorman]

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Birchtree wrote:

Robo,

Show'em what a breakout looks like - let's see a graph of the Dow Transports. It's simply perfect and beautiful. Now for the Industrials to confirm in the immediate future. It would appear too many folks were caught off guard - which of course is a normal event. We now have at least two days of 3 to 1 ratios to the up side - one more please.

Dennis

The big picture of a breakout.....but if the DJIA can't confirm movement... down we go....

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/dowtheory1.html

 

[Greg]

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2-Nov-05
C-fund $13.13 $0.13 1.00%
S-fund $15.71 $0.25 1.62%
I-fund $16.62 $0.12 0.73% ) this matched MSCI)

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Day to day Market Talk

It's easy to see how the funds of TSP are doing in recent history. www.tsp.gov is a direct link. However, http://www.tspmoney.com/is also a useful link.

For the last periods the S-fund and I-fund have been the top performers.

For your reference. Rgds and be careful! Spaf

 

[vectorman]

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For tomorrow....

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_York/employment_situation/year/2005/yearly/11/index.html



Below statement Tom usually puts out-


Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times. Its average return was minus 0.5%. Markets don’t like surprises because they create uncertainty.



Ten days after a negative surprise of 50K jobs or more, the S&P was higher 55% of the time. Ten days after a positive surprise of 50K or more, it was lower 58% of the time.

Ninety days after a large negative surprise, the S&P showed an average return of +5.1%. Ninety days after a large positive surprise, its average return was 1.7%.


The correlation between surprises in the jobs number and 90-day returns in the S&P 500 has been -.32. This means that the more positive the surprise, the more negative the performance in the S&P and vice-versa. Given the sample size, this is significant.

 

[vectorman]

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Question- Alot of new (dumb)money jumping in the market right now, what's the smart money doing today? Taking alittle off the table or shooting for the stars? What do you think Tom? Added- or anyone else?

 

[mlk_man]

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Might have to wait till the last half hour to see what the smart money is doing. If it drops it may continue into tomorrow.

Oops, my name's not Tom. :shock:

 

[vectorman]

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mlk_man wrote:

Might have to wait till the last half hour to see what the smart money is doing. If it drops it may continue into tomorrow.

Oops, my name's not Tom. :shock:

Thanks mlk_man, I just put Tom's name because I saw him peeking at the site, probably at work.

 

[robo]

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Commentsfrom a Tech:

Whatever one might have been waiting for before adding to one's long positions, it happened yesterday. There were breakouts above resistance, above moving averages, across downtrend lines -- you name it, it happened.

While the Dow was first to break out on Monday. The S&P 500 cleared its 200-day moving average on Tuesday and passed the 50-day average yesterday. Its next task is to close above 1228.81.

Not to be outdone, the NASDAQ cleared its downtrend line and is on its way to a test its high for the year at 2218. All three indices will encounter their recent highs within a two to three percent advance, and should they get through these obstacles it is likely that they will add at least another two or three percent before the new Quick Summary Index buy signal runs out of steam.

Finally, yesterday there was a buy signal by the indicator from Martin Zweig's classic book Winning on Wall Street, an indicator developed by Ned Davis which was based on the Valueline Geometric index. When it rises 4% or more in a week, a buy signal is given that in the past has occurred near market bottoms and has preceded rallies that have continued for months, before being reversed by a negative 4% move.

 

[vectorman]

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Just an observation- look at it and decide for yourself. The DJTA is having a great run right now, almost too good to be true. Looking at the chart, after the DJTA peaks it usually doesn't flatten out to long at the top like the other markets. Once the run is over, down she goes and theother markets will follow at least short term. How high will it go??? If you compare it to the other previous cycles, its pretty high.Ifthe DJIA can't breakout from its previous high,this may cause a problem. Just something to watch in the up coming days.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 03, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Economic data drive stox! But,,spike in oil nails gains

Elsewhere:...... Cartel chief hints of Horsemen.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at............. 1219.94, up +5.18
CMF (money flow) at.. 0.009, even
RSI (strength) at...... 58.64, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............61.78, up +2.03

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1208, Trail: 1196.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[robo]

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vectorman wrote:

Question- Alot of new (dumb)money jumping in the market right now, what's the smart money doing today?

Some comments from a Tech at the close today:

We have chart evidence of a possible new Buy signal in the $RUT/$SPX ratio andSMH/$SPX ratio from last week's report. BUTother chart evidence is that the "smart money" (OEX) is selling. ($OEX / $SPX).

Still plenty of cashon the sidelines!!!!!! Some Bears still have a wait and see attitude, so things might slow down some from here.... Maybe some small pull-backs and breathers are in order....

 

[robo]

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Comments from a tech:

Closing Comment

It is not clear if the mini-correction --probably a wave 4 of the VST move which started at 1180 on 10/28 -- is complete or if it will go on a little longer. When it is, we should see slightly higher prices before a much larger correction sets in.

Today's action did little to relieve the overbought hourly condition, and nothing to address the daily, but ithas given me some ammunition to fire new projections at you when we start up again, and after the short-term top is in.

 

[Greg]

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3-Nov-05 Returns
C-fund $13.20 $0.07 0.53% (S&P500 0.43%)
S-fund $15.78 $0.07 0.45% (WIL4500 0.38%)
I-fund $16.73 $0.11 0.66% (MSCI 0.686% )

 

[Birchtree]

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Stocks jumped after the government reported that productivity in the 3Q surged 4.1% and unit labor costs unexpectedly fell, suggesting that core inflation is likely to remain contained and economic activity remains firm. The Fed will most probably stop hiking sooner rather than later.

Watch the cumulative A/D line during this sequence, if we make new price highs, and the NYAD does not confirm these new highs, we then are technically in a bear market again for the first time since 2001. The Dow Transports +45.40 today to 3973.44, another record high. This is starting to get noticed - looks like lift off.

 

[JOVARN]

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I have to make a change in my wifes 401K and the Smith Barney broker said that to keep expenses down I should stay within the family of funds she pesently belongs to. She has been in Bonds for the past 2 years and It looks like equities mshould have a goon run for the next few months (I HOPE)

The Pioneer Bond fund is within the Pioneer family of funds and the Bond Fund of America is a fund within the American Funds family.

ANyone have any suggestions within the aboveoptions

Jo

 

[bkrownd]

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Birchtree wrote:

The Fed will most probably stop hiking sooner rather than later.

But not until they get to the >= 4.5% they're aiming for.

 

[Birchtree]

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Jovarn,

Would suggest staying out of bonds - consider the Pioneer Fund A and the American Europacific Fund. These two funds are pertinent for today's times.

 

[The_Technician]

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Hmmp....errored on the side of safety....what a pass up....never would'a figered it to jump this away and this strong......there were two chances this thing may go and with the economics going every which away.....seems to me the marketmakers need some cash...

Looking for a rest here at 1225...and maybe get a reprieve to mid to low 1200's.....

I still wouldn't put it past some market players the yank the rug right out of market....but if and when is a question.....depending on the energy prices and further economic data coming.....

Passed up a good'un....thumbs up to those who stuck with it....:^

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Comments from a Tech:

The markets are moving rapidly towards their August highs and are reaching intermediary goals almost daily. Expect to see mini-pullbacks as each goal is tested and hopefully penetrated. These little pullbacks provide opportunities to acquire stocks at somewhat better prices than trying to buy them while they are attempting to advance through a resistance area.

While the S&P 500 penetrated its downtrend line from the August high, it still has other obstacles on its way to an attempt at a new high. Next on the list is the first reaction high following the September decline.

 

[robo]

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The survey of the members of the American Association of Independent Investors reflects the solid gains made in the last week. We can consider it to be in a positive mode until the 8-week average (blue line) clears the 70% level.