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FWIW: This from "Fib" Timer:






[align=left]For Sunday, October 30, 2005 [/align]

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Current Strategy Positions
FibTimer currently has 11 successful timing strategies

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Aggressive S&P Position - BEARISH
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Aggressive Nasdaq Position - BULLISH
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Aggressive GOLD Position - BULLISH [/b]
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Aggressive BOND Position - BEARISH
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Aggress. SMALLCAP Position - BULLISH
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Conservative S&P Position - BULLISH[/b]
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Conservative REIT Position - BULLISH[/b]
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U.S. Dollar Timer Position - BULLISH
 
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smine wrote:
Yeah, that's how I usually look at their predictions too!!! LOL
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No, I just heard the Bush announcement. How is the impending war in Congress going to effect things? It can't help.
 
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Birchtree wrote:
And don't forget our friends at: FTSE +69.96, +1.34% , and DAX +66.52, +1.38%, and CAC +63.20, +1.46%. Could be a blow out day all around - whew!
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...4...3...2...1...BLAST-OFF !!! Hopefully this will be like the middle of May again and the market will keep climbing that wall of worry. Too many people in the G fund, lots of mutual fund money on the side-lines. Time for those investors who went away inMarch to come back in. Maybe others will see this as another chance to get an IRA before the market gets too high. Have to get people thinking, ' better jump in or you'll miss the start of the Santa Clause rally'.Technician also needs to keep that Doom andGloom hat on......... " I would expect anything to change from the recent market actions of late.....the accumulation is just not there...I really wouldn't stay in the market between now and mid of Dec.....you just asking for it...."
;)

big.chart
 
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The Technician wrote:
I would expect anything to change from the recent market actions of late.....the accumulation is just not there...I really wouldn't stay in the market between now and mid of Dec.....you just asking for it....

:dude:
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Nothing personal Tech but I think I might be able to use your statements as a contranian indicator. Here's another statement from Tech fromMay 16th, 2005, 1:33pm. The day the summer rally really started taking off again.

"I would like to bring to your attention the market is tempting right now, but I know the overall market condition and I want to check if I'm not seeing something....:s....its like I'm a fish smelling a lure and I am not sure if I see a hook.......

At the moment I have questioned everything I have seen and made sense of .......just to keep it justified....but I continue tostill seeevidence I was right....and therefore my questioning every minute of the day keeps me at bay......somethinglearned by experience....

it like......Right at the moment, someone wants you to buy.....while they get a better position later.....its a carrot and its looking for takers.....:shock: its just dangling out there....right in front of ya.......

There's plenty of room below this level in the S&P while the top line is trying to hammer it down.....so it is still evident to watch and wait.....:^

Keep you itchy fingers off the trigger all......patience is a virtue....;) wait until its quite evident that we have a definite moment to get in.....

I still feel aslide coming ........this week or a little later on......but I wouldn't put it past the market for a little reprieve right here......waiting for that moment when you know for sure....... its time.......

I can still wait some more.............

A moment in time can be a little exciting can't it........"

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=1646&forum_id=22&jump_to=20676#p20676

big.chart
 
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Yep....a cautious investor I am...;).....and I see the similarities in then versus now.....I've been looking it over for two weeks now....there is no doubt that there could be room for a rally....but I also have reason to believe it will be depressed....but a rally could be possible.....I still think its early, and the downtrend we're in is very very possible...just look at the economics driving us down, its so much more evident than then...and there is no way the accumulation looks like it did then.....it by itself raises an eyebrow....:%

Right at the moment, I feel like sitting out for a few days until we pass some events that may be coming our way.....I still think we're early for any sort of a recovering rally.....:^

You may also wish to remember that I was just cutting my teeth on the indexs back then, there has been a learning curve that has been ascended since.....and I'm still trying to get it ironed down....but if you read my call (I think it was in the Short term outlook forum) on the market back then, I mentioned it would go down with some ups and downs in the summer....and Aug 8 was a pivot point (I called it a black Monday for that reason) that I called something like a month in advance...we have been going my way the whole time.....

You call it as you see it....I see it differently....that is what makes this board so good...

:dude:
 
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As a matter of fact in the short term forum I posted this on May 18th.....



I posted this on Market watch today....

The market activity today has made me go back and take a look at the past...:?..this morning I really searched the past data and I find it uncanny similar in dates and market movement around this time in 2000 ..;)......if we can get thru this week without setting a new low.....which I'm still speculating in 1120's or lower, then I would be willing to bet that we will have a summer similiar to 2000.....up till the first week in Aug......again another cautious period.....but this one is even more cautious than at the moment......as a matter of fact I would say right now its a dead end........:shock:

This week has been a true test of the market strength.....if we don't get the down stroke here soon .....Ithink we will be going sideways through Augso certain market parties can sell out and go short......in the mean time we could just have some fun and play.....

You never know .... and I'll feel better next week....whether we are down or up...at least I will feel more assured how stable things will be.....:^

:dude:


Now I know
 
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The Technician wrote:
Yep....a cautious investor I am...( deleted to save space, full statement posted above).......that is what makes this board so good...

:dude:
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I agree Tech, you add balance and I for one appreciate your comments. My point in a humorous way, is I may be able to use some of your observations as a contranian indicator.I had good intentions, did not mean any ill will. I still have time to delete any above statements just give the word.:^
 
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Yeap :l....but I caution you, my trend analysis is in the midst of change....your contrarian indicator may become something other than that if you base it off my analysis....:l

So be careful and don't get caught in the sea of change....

:^
 
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Mike wrote:
SPX has been above 1205 most of the day. :)
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Yea, it sat there....this is the most frustrating day.....end of month, going nowhere, and above all of this, the Accumulation rate didn't make any attempt to recover....we'r wide open for a move in any direction.....only thing guiding us is the economic numbers.....and money powers to be.....which I would believe are strongly shorted.....correct me if I'm wrong here....anybody know???:?

That Accumulation rate is nil nil nil nil...and it could go either way.....given tomorrow on the interest rate change, we could explode in either direction.....even for a short period....which is a real gamblers bet....:shock:

Given we have been high of late in the funds, I would say we're due for a correction...how far we go as far up or down as the funds are concerned is a mystery .....:?

I guess you can say trick or treat.....

Happy Halloween!!!

:dude:
 
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