Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 31, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Breakout - Stox party!

Some Vestors remain fearful of horsemen.

Carts and CATs up, but Cereal was soggy!

Elsewhere:...... Peasants enjoying re-opening of bear chasing season.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1207.01, up +8.60
CMF (money flow) at.-0.142, up
RSI (strength) at......53.9, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............59.76, dn -1.46

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1193, Trail: 1183.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[bkrownd]

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puertorico wrote:

May Greenspans pass & give us a christmas gift
no to raise interes rate tomorrow :?

I count on it

There ain't no way on this Earth. He's got a steady hand on the rudder. They're talking about a half-pointer in the works sometime soon, too.

 

[Quips]

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Last Saturday Bob Brinker had a guest on the last hour of the program; his name is Wayne Angel. Angel is one of the Fed governors, but I don't know in what capacity he currently serves.

He agreed with Brinker that the Fed should either think twice or lay off any future rate increases after the one tomorrow.

So the FOMC is getting some resistance from its own to temper its obsession with inflation.

We see the price of oil falling below $60 a barrel now; that should help consumer sentiment going into the holiday season ... a mildseasonal weatherwould help in that regard too.

 

[Skip]

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OK.... WE got the close above 1200 and the 1205 mark... If we can hold it a new trading range of 1205 to 1216... will be in place.after that nothing is in the way for a new high ,for a least the 1245 mark...... fed we raise a 1/4 point for sure ,but see what their wording is for future raises or if thats it... oil going down below 60.... the cards are laid... lets see the flop and the river card...

Tech rally started up 1.46% today !!!

Skip

 

[Skip]

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We usually lead the rally not follow it... Maybe we got some catching up to do... High oil prices have not effectived other countries like the US...


Chart from one of tech's posts

Global Stock Market Recap

 

[Spaf]

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Where are we?

Yesterday we had a gap start and break-out from the upside trading range we were stuck in.

After breaching the resistance level of 1200 the market held firm until the end of trading and then traded back down, retesting the former area of resistance. As often the case, that former resistance level actually provides support after it is crossed.

This morning the support level was holding, so keep your fingers crossed!

 

[The_Technician]

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Spaf wrote:

Where are we?

Yesterday we had a gap start and break-out from the upside trading range we were stuck in.

After breaching the resistance level of 1200 the market held firm until the end of trading and then traded back doen, retesting the former area of resistance. As often the case, that former resistance level actually provides support after it is crossed.

This morning the support level was holding, so keep your fingers crossed!

I looked at the trend and if we don't get below 1178 on the S&P then I think we will make an attempt to move further up than the 1208 range....but we will have to wait for a couple of days I believe to verify this...

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Bring on the Fed and his minutes..... Still looks like 4.25% / 4.5% for neutral, I don't think the Fed will tell us anything new.....

Some comments from a Tech:

The S&P 500 cleared its 200-dayand stopped below the 50-day on its way to an expected gain of at least 1.9% above the top of the trading range just exited. Note that in addition to the 50-day average, there is likely to be resistance in the neighborhood of the last interim high at 1228.81

The NASDAQ waltzed through the 2092 resistance level that has been pivotal all year, and is on its way to a rendezvous with the downtrend line at 2135, less than 1% above yesterday's close.

Finally, the Dow also moved easily through its downtrend line, and is now on its way to test its interim high at 10568.70, just 1.2% above. All three indices have under a percent and a half to traverse before they reach technically prominent goals, and the probability is high that they will meet and beat all of them this week.

 

[robo]

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Closing Comment

The SPX quickly reached itstarget of 1202, took a 5-hour snooze while waiting for the Fed announcement, came back to life for 30m, and then went back to sleep for the rest of the day.

Since the hourly indicatorsare still declining (with the exception of the BSP index which has gone flat) and are not yet oversold,the odds still favor breaking 1202 and extending the correction before making another attempt at the upside.

The next up-move, whether it starts from here or lower, will do a lot to clarify the status of the short-term trend whichbegan at 1168.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 01, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Horsemenyak day!

Vestors mull over Horsemen. Cartel ships more feed to Horseman Rats. Horseman Krude and Earnie rportedly skipped town. And, Horseman Inflate allegedly to be in pokey.

Elsewhere:...... Some Vestors spent profits at the pub, celebrating bo.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1202.76, dn -4.25
CMF (money flow) at.-0.096, up
RSI (strength) at......52.0, dn
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............59.85, up +0.09

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1193, Trail: 1183.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Birchtree]

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I don't want to seem premature or jump the gun but I think the Dow Transports +24.58 today to 3840.04 are trying to send a prescient message. This could be an early Dow Theory signalthat has yet to be recognized. Combine this activity with the ISM reading of 59.1% down from 59.4%, essentially unchanged along with every global market in BULL synchronization - and what do you have - good times on the way. Remember you have to be in to win. The stupid Fed is after housing - the GDP will continue to strengthen and company earnings will continue to grow for several years without another recession. I can't keep my feet on the ground.

Dennis - perma bull # 2

 

[plpjap]

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...but if housing does crash, stocks are in big trouble.

 

[The_Technician]

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Disturbing trend on the Funds.....noticed since Oct 7th that the divergence from day to day rate changes has widen substantially over the divergence established over the last year or so....

Is this a preliminary to that drop or to that rally....it goes along with a higher daily volume on the S&P since then also....

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 02, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Bulls got loose!

Elsewhere:...... Warden explained that bad weather in October and high temperatures, kept leaves from falling. This allowed the bears to hide behind every bush. Now that storms are over and leaves have fallen, the bears don't have any place to hide. Consequently they expect a good bear chasing season. Warden said season could last till mid December. And may get up to chasing some 1,280 bears a day.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1214.76, up +12.00
CMF (money flow) at.+0.013, up
RSI (strength) at......56.7, up
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............59.75, dn -0.10

Tea Leaves:................Green.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1203, Trail: 1191.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Skip]

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The Technician wrote:

Spaf wrote:

Where are we?

Yesterday we had a gap start and break-out from the upside trading range we were stuck in.

After breaching the resistance level of 1200 the market held firm until the end of trading and then traded back down, retesting the former area of resistance. As often the case, that former resistance level actually provides support after it is crossed.

This morning the support level was holding, so keep your fingers crossed!

I looked at the trend and if we don't get below 1178 on the S&P then I think we will make an attempt to move further up than the 1208 range....but we will have to wait for a couple of days I believe to verify this...

:dude:

Looks like the Tech turned BULLISH... !!!!


Skip:^

 

[Skip]

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Great close... now looking for a run like the July to Aug run...

Look for a resting place aroung 1228- 1230.... after that look for a test of 1245...

Or MORE ?

As long as 1205 holds as a bottom.... We should be in for a nice run here.

Hello Santa:^

Skip

 

[Quips]

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The FED is not after housing.

The Fed is after pseudo-growth and trying to make that more costly. and on the other hand it is trying to convince the other nations holding our debt/bonds to continue to hold it and then to continue to buy more of it.

Like buying a bill of goods imo, haha.

Hey, there are some people on this board who are very pessimistic, but long-ish term I'd say. It is hard to disagree with what they say.

But now I would hope that it is not too late for the FOMC to find a sweet spot slightlyto the right of center and make make credit cards and creative real estate financing much less attractive, if not Fugly.

If the current headline inflation rateis driven by debt more than anything else,-- national as well as personal --it has to be douced, and the sooner the better. Better to take losses while they are still managable and who knows, it may make for a better environment for those who remain.

 

[Rod]

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Yeah, it was a great close.:^ After being out for so long, it feels good to finally be making some $$$ again. Let's hope the market rallies from here.

God Bless

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Robo,

Show'em what a breakout looks like - let's see a graph of the Dow Transports. It's simply perfect and beautiful. Now for the Industrials to confirm in the immediate future. It would appear too many folks were caught off guard - which of course is a normal event. We now have at least two days of 3 to 1 ratios to the up side - one more please.

Dennis

 

[robo]

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Dennis,

The market is performing well!!!!!! I think a pause or small pull-back is do soon, but it looks likethe 1200's are here to stay!!!! I'll post the charts tomorrow, getting ready to head to work..... Man I hate night shift, but it pays the bill's...

Some comments from a Tech:

Closing Comment

Overbought + negative divergences + reaching the target zone + top of channel resistance line= very probable top!

BUT... we need confirmation! And the fact that we went all the way to the top of the channel means that there is still plenty of strength left --or at least was, today, although in the last couple of hours there was a stand-off between buyers and sellers.

1202 has now become an important level and there are some similarities between this wave and the one which started at 1174 and went to 1204.In particular, the fact that the last small up wave (in this case from 1202) was considerably shorter than the previous one. This is deceleration, and this is what is causing the divergences.

That a top is forming is highly probable. But what kind of a top? One that should bring a 15 to 20 point pull-back if we break 1202. And that could be only the first (a) wave of a larger correction. But I don't want to get ahead of myself. We'll discuss that later on.