Market Talk

[bkrownd]

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Spaf wrote:

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 27, Closing


Market News. Translated

Kingdom Talk:. Horseman Earnie muddies waters! Mixed earnings in todays market. [There are 4 bad economic Horsemen:earnings (Earnie), rates (Rats), inflation (inflate) and energy (Krude). Krude's horse is named "Filler-up". The Federal Reserve Board is the Cartel. Vestors are market investors. Peasants are stock holders].

Market stuck in trading range.Temporarily we are in a trading range of about 1177 to 1199 S&P

Cart manufacturer catches flu!GM stock is somewhat sick.

Kingdom jesters involved with loose lips. White House folks may be indited for devulging CIA operative.

All right, I've been here a month or so, and I still have no idea what these postings are supposed to mean...

The Horsemen!


All in fun! Spaf

 

[Greg]

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10/27/05TSP Fund Share Prices
G-fund$11.06
F-fund$10.530.020.19% (AGG +0.23%)
C-fund$12.74-$0.14-1.09% (SP500-1.05%)
S-fund$15.00-$0.29-1.90%(WIL4500 -1.86%)
I-Fund$16.19-$0.13-0.80% (MSCI -0.153%) They cheated us big-time again. :*:%

Month-To-Date Returns for October (since 09/30/2005)
G-fund0.27%
F-fund-0.75%
C-fund-3.99%
S-fund-5.36%
I-fund-4.20%

L-funds Return since 08/01/2005 - Date that L-funds were started
L2040-2.42%
L2030-2.05%
L2020-1.58%
L2010-0.94%
L-Inc0.00%
G Funds1.00%

 

[Show-me]

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Greg wrote:

10/27/05TSP Fund Share Prices
G-fund$11.06
F-fund$10.530.020.19% (AGG +0.23%)
C-fund$12.74-$0.14-1.09% (SP500-1.05%)
S-fund$15.00-$0.29-1.90% (WIL4500 -1.86%)
I-Fund$16.19-$0.13-0.80% (MSCI -0.153%) They cheated us big-time again. :*:%

Took the wind out of my sail. Was hoping to hold on for one more day in the US market and got spanked. Risk/reward!

 

[tsptalk]

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bkrownd wrote:

Spaf wrote:

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 27, Closing

All right, I've been here a month or so, and I still have no idea what these postings are supposed to mean...

Sounds like you need the Spaf to english translation kit. He is the king of metaphors.

 

[teknobucks]

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[teknobucks]

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Gross: Bernanke will lower rates
Pimco bond guru sees Fed changing course next year
By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:29 PM ET Oct. 26, 2005

Bill Gross seems like he is desperate to hold of the bleeding in the bond markets as his well timed opinion piece came when treasuries gapped up and tested new highs today.

Not even 3 FOMCs away from taking the Chairman seat Bill Gross already has pegged Ben Bernanke as an accommodative dove of a Chairman who will let inflation run without a care in the world that prices grow at a rate unmatched by wages. Seems to me that Bill has leveraged himself heavily that inflation will go on forever and eternity and that eventually his 30 year treasuries will have a price value of $1000 per note at a yield of .0003% per year?

I wonder if Bill has any gold in his pockets as well? The guy is an absolute hack that is either the worst market time in history or is a hypocrite that buys when he says he sells and sells when he says he buys. I mean what can you think about a guy who give people price targets in a market where he controls a position large enough to impact price?


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bill is big on Ben.

Bill Gross, managing director of bond powerhouse Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco, praised Federal Reserve chairman nominee Ben Bernanke in published comments on Wednesday and predicted that a weaker economy would prompt the new chief to cut U.S. interest rates in 2006.

"We are due for what appears to be a 2% or less GDP growth rate in 2006, a rate sure to stop the Fed and to induce eventual ease at some point later in the year," Gross wrote in his monthly "Investment Outlook" column on the Pimco Web site.

"It will likely be Bernanke's first policy shift and an indicator of his willingness to address the Fed's dual mandate of inflation targeting and economic growth," Gross added.

Many central banks in the world, such as England and the European Central Bank, use inflation targets to guide interest rates and typically publicize their intent. But the Fed has resisted formally setting inflation targets. See related story.

Inflation targeting is controversial, but economies that use the tactic have lower inflation and lower long-term yields than the U.S. does, Gross noted.

Bernanke is a supporter of inflation targeting, which if adopted in the U.S., Gross said, "should help intermediate and long-term bond yields to stay low."

 

[The_Technician]

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Maybe its time for ....

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Could be some pressure midday and at the close..... Hopefully it will not rollover, and the 1170's hold.....

The most encouraging sign is the support being developed between 1176.84, reached on October 13, and 1179.54. The S&P has closed between those two levels in 6 out of the last 12 days, and they are arranged as a series of higher lows. Unless 1176.59 is significantly breached to the downside on a close, the advantage will remain with the bulls.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Special Addendum October 28, 2005

The Economy In Brief

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/InBrief.htm

Spaf

 

[Mike]

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Incredible volatility. :shock:

After dropping to support, the S&P is making another run toward 1200. Yeesh.

Thank you, GDP.

 

[robo]

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Mike wrote:

After dropping to support, the S&P is making another run toward 1200. Yeesh.

What a day!!!! The market is going to break-outearlynext week and head to 1225 Mike. The reason, I went to cash today, yes I sold into the rally.We always get nice rallies when I go to cash. Waiting for the direction to get clearer, or buying again around the current support levels.... Under 1180!!! Good luck next week for those that are long! Lots of resistancearound1210, and good support at 1175....





Some comments from a Tech:

The SPX could have another couple of points to the upside because the hourly indicators are still oversold,but much more than that would be a sign of strength returning and question the probability of further weakness. The problem is that the QQQQ is much weaker than the SPX, and that is NOT a positive.

 

[robo]

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Comments from a Tech:

Closing comment

This morning, I explained that the current VST trend gives insight into what comes next. Today's (and the past week's) action couldbelie that statement. Withthe VST being all over the place recently,it looks as if the VSTdoes not have any predictive value. But if you move "over" one, to the QQQQ, you can see that today,the QQQQ is saying clearly that we are not ready to go up just now, andthis makes today's "relief" rally in the SPX suspicious. You can also move "up" one to the short-term trend, and that is clearly not going anywhere, yet, but is caught in a slightly slanting upward trading range, which, by definition has bearish implications. I think that we may still need to "square the base".

And then, if you bringcycles into your analysis, don't forget that we still have some cycles bottoming in about 2/3 weeks, and the overall market action indicates that they will continue to restrict any attempt at breaking out until after they have made their lows.
This is where it pays off to be ecclectic. The market can fool some of the analysts some of the time, but not all of the analysts all of the time!

Re. the relief rally, we may be just about done!Divergence is beginning to show up in the 5-minute chart indicators, and the hourly indicators are no longer oversold and approaching overbought, but they are not quite there yet! Of course, they don't have to become completely overbought. All they need to do is to begin to roll over.

 

[Greg]

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10/28/05TSP Fund Share Prices
G-fund$11.07

F-fund$10.52-0.01-0.09%
C-fund$12.96$0.221.73%
S-fund$15.23$0.231.53%
I-Fund$16.21$0.020.12%

Last Week Returns - Oct 21 - 28
C-fund1.65%
I-fund1.00%
S-fund0.66%
G-fund0.09%
F-fund-0.75%

Month-To-Date Returns for October (since 09/30/2005)
G-fund0.36%
F-fund-0.85%
C-fund-2.34%
S-fund-3.91%
I-fund-4.08%

YTD Returns (since 12/31/2004)
I-fund4.72%
G-fund3.65%
S-fund3.39%
F-fund0.96%
C-fund0.39%

L-funds Return since 08/01/2005 - Date that L-funds were started
L2040-1.43%
L2030-1.17%
L2020-0.83%
L2010-0.31%
L-Inc0.26%
G Funds1.10%

 

[Skip]

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What a ride...

From support to close at the high of the day... Looks like we might be here to stay awhile....
Still need to close above 1200 and break to the upside of 1205...

Skip

 

[robo]

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The NASDAQ is in a symmetrical triangle around the pivotal 2092 resistance level that turned it back several times this year as it came up from below. The breakout from the triangle will be significant, and until then I have no plans to modify our positions.

For the rally to get going Techneeds to be partthe party.

 

[tsptalk]

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robo wrote:

For the rally to get going Techneeds to be partthe party.

Anyone notice that the semiconductor index was down Friday? Very strange considering the market strength, although it did look sort of like a downside exhaustion gap. It will be interesting to see whether it rebounds Monday.

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

robo wrote:

For the rally to get going Techneeds to be partthe party.

Anyone notice that the semiconductor index was down Friday? Very strange considering the market strength, although it did look sort of like a downside exhaustion gap. It will be interesting to see whether it rebounds Monday.

Tom,

Semi's [IGW] was a 80% sell the last time I looked (RE: fundamentals). We ain't broke through the trading range of 1178 - 1200 (S&P). Trying as we might, we gotta get through 1200, with out a bull trap; agree with Skip [above].

With all the news coming in next week, it could berather volatile.

However, after seeing that the economy was growing, the GDP being up, the storms behind us and the political scandal easing, maybe some of the market worries will subside. BTW, energy futures are also calming down [shock and greed].

My outlook is turning optimistic bullish!

.............................................

Hopefully the Kingdom warden will re-open bear chasing season!

Rgds Spaf

 

[mlk_man]

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tsptalk wrote:

Anyone notice that the semiconductor index was down Friday? Very strange considering the market strength, although it did look sort of like a downside exhaustion gap. It will be interesting to see whether it rebounds Monday.

I noticed Tom.............I'm hoping investors will forget about the lowered guidance. :shock:




[align=right]
Posted: Fri Oct 28th, 2005 11:54 am


BTW, I'm alittle concerned about semiconductors being down today and most of the ones I follow have delivered lower 4th quarter guidance. We're not going to be able to get much of a rally without them. They sometimes tend to lag a day or two behind so hopefully this is the case and not a sign of things to come.

Didn't someone say something about the market being up in years ending with 5? :%
[/align]

 

[robo]

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mlk_man wrote:

Didn't someone say something about the market being up in years ending with 5? :%

I was thinking 1300 plus on the S&P, but I would be happy with 1265-1285.... Then maybe a rally in the 1st quarter of 2006.... The technicals are starting to line up, but we need to put the final pressure on the shorts and convince those in cash to join the party. Could be a tough sell for a few more weeks until the trend is clearer..... The BAD NEWS BEARS will do their best to bring the market downnext week, but the technicals back-dropped byeconomic good news is putting pressure on them. I think the wild ride continues next week!!!!!!!!!

 

[tsptalk]

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Spaf wrote:

However, after seeing that the economy was growing, the GDP being up, the storms behind us and the political scandal easing, maybe some of the market worries will subside. BTW, energy futures are also calming down [shock and greed].

Now if we can get the Fed to stop trying to slow the economy down.