Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Oct. 23, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox in gloom? Stox in bloom?

Talk of Gross Kingdom Produce (GDP) could be up +- 4%. This could be rally good news if true.

Q-3 was reported to be fairly good.

Elsewhere:..... Storms and worries delayed the opening day for bear chasing season.

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

-> http://www.bullandbearwise.com/


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly, and ending.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at................... 1179.59, dn -6.98 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at...... -0.120, up +.110 for the week.
RSI (strength) at............ 39.6, up +2.50 for the week; [O.B.=70, O.S.=30].
MACD (trend)...... bearish
S-STO (signal)..... - - - -
P-SAR (signal)..... bearish
ROC (change)..... bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............ 60.63, dn -2.00 for the week.

Attachment:. S&P (3mo) chart ending 10/21. Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, S-STO, and ROC.


Tea leaves:................ Yellow. No trend established, stuck on ledge.


Yak.

Remarks:................... Holding 0/100 (0-0 | 35-35-30).
S&P Stops:................. Alert: NA, Trailing: {1177}.
Oil Markers:............... <64 = ok, 64-69 = worry, >69 = critical.

Weekly TSP Returns:........ G=+.01, F=+.05, C=-.07, S=+.03, I=-.48

 

[Greg]

imported post

Last Week's Returns - Oct 14-21
F-fund0.47%
S-fund0.20%
G-fund0.09%
C-fund-0.55%
I-fund-2.90% :s

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Spaf,

I notice you are going to make yourself some retirement money - a little or a lot extra always helps - steadfast is the rule today. You are it appears once again traveling at tree level without running lights - you must be having fun - hard to escape that old adrenalin kick. I see where the bullandbearwise index was below 40 recently - that is wonderful - takes me back to the April '05 lows. I read over the weekend where someone said "I find the small investor level of shorting which is now three times higher than at the October 2002 lows simply stunning, considering that the NYSE was testing all time highs just last month." Take care.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Dennis,
Ah, yes the old adrenalin kick!

Rgds Spaf

 

[learning]

imported post

Justremember,keep the blue part of the ball up!

 

[robo]

imported post

The S&P 500 is still below the uptrend line drawn from the April low, but it has managed to close for another day above the low reached last week. A close above 1196 will be bullish and, of course, a close above the 200-dayat 1199 will constitute an upside breakout capable of sparking a sustained move.

While the S&P 500 commercial hedger net position is still short, it is close to equaling the smallest short position of the last five years, the one reached in January 2004.S&P 500 and Mini Contracts, Weighted Commitments of Traders
Through Friday, October 21st

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 24, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox walley! Spuds & Peas up 1.68%

Horsemen Earnie sent packing!

New Cartel chief!

Opening day of bear chasing season!

Elsewhere:..... Lube down, Wilma missed barges.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1199.38, up +19.79
CMF (money flow) at.-0.060, up
RSI (strength) at......49.9, up
MACD (trend)....------
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.........60.32, dn -0.31

Tea Leaves:.................Green


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: NA, Trail: 1177.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[ATCJeff]

imported post

Wow, what a day. Glad to be 100% stocks today.

BTW, sure is quiet out here.

Beeeee beeerrrryyy, beeerrryyy, quiet. It's BEAR season!



Jeff

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

ATCJeff wrote:

Wow, what a day. Glad to be 100% stocks today.

BTW, sure is quiet out here.

Beeeee beeerrrryyy, beeerrryyy, quiet. It's BEAR season!



Jeff

no worries.....those gloom and doomers will appear at their regularly scheduled time tomm......

LOL

 

[Greg]

imported post

10/24/05TSP Fund Share Prices
G-fund$11.06
F-fund$10.58-0.02-0.19%
C-fund$12.96$0.211.65%
S-fund$15.42$0.291.92%
I-Fund$16.21$0.161.00%

Month-To-Date Returns for October (since 09/30/2005)
G-fund0.27%
F-fund-0.28%
C-fund-2.34%
S-fund-2.71%
I-fund-4.08%

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Yo....gotta hand it to the I fund.....glad to have stayed in it.....I will be looking for it to stay up tomorrow and will then drop some....

I will probably get out tomorrow....but I will have to take a looksee in the morning before I make that move.....

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

The Technician,

The Nikkei 225 is already up over 224 points - hope you can stay awhile. It's time to ride the train - sit back and relax. Don't resist the temptation of profit motive.

Dennis-perma bull #2

 

[Mike]

imported post

Robo stated that a close above the 200 MA (1199) = a sustainable move up.

The S&P closed fractionally above 1199, so does that count, or not?

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Mike,

Sure hope it counts, and sticks this time.

BTW a friend of your avatar wanted to say hello!


Rgds Spaf

 

[Skip]

imported post

Mike wrote:

Robo stated that a close above the 200 MA (1199) = a sustainable move up.

The S&P closed fractionally above 1199, so does that count, or not?

Got to close above the 1200 mark before you get to happy:^

Its a mind set thing with traders....even numbers... like the dow 10,000 or 11,000 ect.. Notice that 2 times in the last week we have come close to a 1200 close but no cigar.... Got to have that cigar....
Usually after a couple of test we will close above...

Skip

 

[robo]

imported post

Skip wrote:

Got to close above the 1200 mark before you get to happy:^

I agree, we need to get above the 1200 level as resistance, clear it, and turn it into support..... The big money is watching that level, if we clear it and it holds, there is a very good chancethat we are OFF TO THE RACES!!!!

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

brittish fuel crisis looming?....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/10/23/nfuel23.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/10/23/ixhome.html

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

robo wrote:

Skip wrote:

Got to close above the 1200 mark before you get to happy:^

I agree, we need to get above the 1200 level as resistance, clear it, and turn it into support..... The big money is watching that level, if we clear it and it holds, there is a very good chancethat we are OFF TO THE RACES!!!!

Generally under these conditions, where the average is approx 1200, the price makes the average and then turns south...but that's the condrum, are we in those conditions at this time....all my info indicates this but things turn around such as the attempt lately by the energy sector to get out of everyone pockets....this will have somewhat of a positive outlook as you know......but its a little late for the holidays I'm afraid...

I still have some room for the I fund to go up.....but how long will it take to get there is the question....I can see an upward trend in the market at the moment, but its short......

:^

 

[mlk_man]

imported post

What Bernanke says:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/25/news/economy/fed_interview.reut/index.htm

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Inflation scare
[font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Econoday Simply Economics 10/21/05

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist[/font]
Recap of US Markets
STOCKS
It was a mixed week as equity investors vacillated between considering the friendly news that economic activity was growing at a steady pace and considering the bad news that inflationary pressures were indeed percolating. Fed officials were outspoken in their view that the Fed stood ready to raise the federal funds rate target further to make sure that inflationary expectations would be wiped out. Indeed, most of the Fed officials were less concerned with actual inflation than with the prospect that investors and consumers would begin to expect accelerating inflation. It is the expectation that inflation will get worse that causes wages and prices to spiral higher. If consumers, employers, and workers believe that inflation is not engrained in the economy, then accelerating price increases are not likely to worsen. Right now, investors and consumers are indeed concerned that price hikes, which began in the energy sector, will seep into other sectors as well.
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BONDS
Oddly enough, interest rates dipped this week from the previous week. While it is understandable that interest rates decreased today after a bomb scare in Washington D.C., interest rates were generally on a downward path this week from last Friday's close despite news that economic activity was healthy and inflationary pressures are indeed on the horizon. Several Fed officials noted that the Fed must be wary of inflation and it is likely that the Fed will continue to raise the federal funds rate target in the near term. Thus, it really makes no sense that interest rate levels would dip this week, however slightly. Perhaps bond investors will view conditions differently next week when a several key economic indicators - including third quarter GDP growth - will be reported.
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Markets at a Glance

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Weekly percent change column reflects percent changes for all components except interest rates. Interest rate changes are reflected in simple differences.
The Economy
ENERGY INFLATION SPIKE ALSO IN THE PPI
The producer price index surged 1.9 percent in September, the largest monthly gain since recording a similarly large gain in 1990. Energy prices jumped 7.1 percent during the month, and are now 27.8 percent higher than a year ago. Food prices increased 1.4 percent in September after declining in the two previous months. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI increased 0.3 percent. This was slightly higher than the average 0.2 percent monthly gain recorded in the first eight months of this year. Passenger car prices and heavy motor truck prices jumped during the month, as did women's and girls' apparel prices, floor coverings, jewelry, transformers and power regulators as well as ships and railroad equipment. Incidentally, railroad equipment prices are up 13 percent versus a year ago, and transformers and power regulator prices are 11.8 percent higher than a year ago. Aside from energy commodities, these two items are posting the highest year-over-year gains in the PPI among finished goods prices.
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According to BLS officials, gasoline prices are not expected to spurt in October as they have in the past few months - (gasoline prices are up a whopping 63.6 percent from a year ago). However, it is certainly possible that fuel oil and natural gas prices will continue to post hefty gains. Residential gas prices are up 24.7 percent since last September and fuel oil prices are up 57.1 percent from a year earlier.
Economic data this week have been sparse, but most of the news does point to relatively healthy economic growth. This makes inflationary pressures more worrisome because sluggish growth would reduce demand for goods and services. Strong economic demand will only fuel price pressures. This is the primary reason that Fed officials on the speaking circuit this week have been of one mind - they are all indicating that the Fed will continue to raise the federal funds rate target in the coming months.
HOUSING STARTS STILL CLIMBING
Housing starts increased 3.4 percent in September to a 2.108 million-unit rate. This put housing starts 10.3 percent above year-ago levels. The Census Bureau believes that it takes five months to establish a trend in housing; consequently, the chart below depicts a five-month moving average of total and single-family housing starts. After dipping in July, starts resumed their climb in August and September. Both single and multi-family homes posted gains during the month. Mortgage rates dipped a few basis points in September to reach 5.77 percent. They have since climbed to 6.04 percent in the first three weeks of October. Levels of 30-year fixed mortgage rate loans surpassed the 6 percent rate in the second week of October for the first time since July 2004. Notice in the chart below that housing activity moderated in 2004 when mortgage rates surpassed 6 percent.
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September figures may have been held down by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but the numbers are small. In coming months, rebuilding in the Gulf region will likely boost housing starts. However, it will probably be difficult to tell how much of the new construction is directly due to hurricane rebuilding.
MANUFACTURING SURVEYS DIVERGE
The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing survey fell back to 12.1 in October after declining to 15.6 in September. Despite the decline in the general conditions index, the survey still points to an expanding manufacturing sector. For instance, the new orders index doubled in October from the previous month. The prices paid and prices received indexes both increased in October as well - confirming other inflation news.
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey improved over the previous month. The general business conditions index jumped to 17.3 in October from a level of 2.2 in September. New orders also surged after posting a slightly declining index in September. This survey also showed sharp gains in the prices paid and the prices received indexes. While healthy economic activity is usually positive for the equity market, it is less friendly news when it is accompanied by inflationary pressures.
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Even though both surveys did not post increases from the previous month, they are both in positive territory and still reflect an expanding manufacturing sector.
The Bottom Line
Inflation news has not been good lately. While it is true that most price indexes are primarily impacted by surging energy prices, it is also true that prices of other goods and services are also starting to show gains. While BLS officials suggested that gasoline prices were not likely to post strong gains in October - and might even drop a bit - these are not the only components of energy. Fuel oil and natural gas prices will probably still be rising in coming months.
Housing starts and the manufacturing surveys - along with the Fed's beige book that covers activity through October 11 - all suggested that economic growth is positive. While healthy economic growth is usually good news for the economy, corporate profits and the equity market, it is less friendly when the strong growth is accompanied by accelerating inflationary pressures. Several Fed officials were on the speaking circuit this week and they all agreed that the Fed would continue to raise the federal funds rate target further in coming months. Eventually, the rising interest rates will have a dampening impact on the economy in 2006.
Looking Ahead: Week of October 24 to October 28

Tuesday
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index plunged nearly 20 points in September to 86.6 after showing more optimistic consumers during the summer months. Many economists blame the CNN effect on September's pessimistic consumers, but high gasoline prices probably also had a lot to do with the plunge.
Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for Oct 05: 89
Range: 84 to 91
Existing home sales increased 2 percent in August to a 7,290,000-unit rate. Single-family housing starts increased in September, suggesting virtually no impact from the hurricanes. The August pending home sales index had increased from the June and July levels - perhaps suggesting a rise in existing home sales in September.
Existing home sales Consensus Forecast for Sept 05: 7.25 million-unit rate
Range: 7.00 to 7.39 million-unit rate
Thursday
New jobless claims fell 35,000 in the week ended October 15 to 355,000. Labor Department officials estimate that about 40,000 new claims were related to Katrina and Rita. This was the seventh straight week in which jobless claims were affected by the hurricanes.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/22/05: 340,000 (-15,000)
Range: 320,000 to 360,000
New orders for durable goods jumped 3.4 percent in August. The bulk of the August spurt was not due to aircraft orders, but in fact, durable goods orders were up sharply across the board during the month. Healthy orders are necessary for a pick up in industrial production in coming months.
Durable goods orders Consensus Forecast for Sept 05: -1.0 percent
Range: -4.5 to +1.5 percent
New single-family home sales fell a whopping 9.9 percent in August to a 1,237,000-unit rate with declines in all regions of the country. Single-family starts rose in September, and the MBA purchase index has been on the rise as well. Perhaps this will point to a rebound in activity in September.
New home sales Consensus Forecast for Sept 05: 1,250,000 unit rate
Range: 1,150,000 to 1,300,000-unit rate
Friday
Real GDP expanded at a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter of 2005. Retail sales moderated significantly in the third quarter, pointing to slower consumer spending. Industrial production also rose more slowly in the July-to-September period, hampered by hurricane activity. Nonetheless, economists are expecting more rapid economic growth for the third quarter than in the previous quarter. The GDP deflator probably accelerated in the third quarter from the second quarter pace due to sharp gains in energy prices.
Real GDP Consensus Forecast for Q3 05: 3.8 percent annual rate
Range: 3.0 to 5.1 percent annual rate
GDP deflator Consensus Forecast for Q3 05: 3.0 percent annual rate
Range: 2.4 to 3.5 percent annual rate
The employment cost index increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter of 2005. This put the yearly gain in the ECI at 3.1 percent. Wages and salaries are increasing at a moderate pace, despite inflationary pressures.
Employment Cost Index (Q/Q) Consensus Forecast for Q3 05: 0.8 percent
Range: 0.7 to 1.1 percent
At mid-month, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped modestly to 75.4. With inflationary pressures, it remains to be seen whether consumer attitudes will improve quickly.
[align=justify]Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for Oct 05: 76
Range: 75 to 78 [/align]