Market Talk

[The_Technician]

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So Birch....how long do you think we have on this upswing...???

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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I fear if we don't break the 1230+ range in the next week we're going for that Halloween holiday!!! The Headless Horseman will come and its a black dark road ahead....

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

Not only did the S&P 500 200-day moving average turn up again yesterday, but the index actually closed above it by 0.31 when it reached at 1199.38. The 50-day moving average didn't turn up, but it reduced the amount of its previous decline to just half of what it lost on Friday. It closed at 1212.46 and is the next important milestone for the index to cross. If the S&P adds another 20 points it will turn up this week, if it adds just 10 it will turn up the end of next week. Interestingly, fifty days ago the index was on its way to test the 1245 high it had established a few weeks before, so its work is cut out for it now.

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

Closing Comment 10-24-05

With today's action, ithas become possiblethat 1168 was the low of the correction.

I am a little suspicious of the viability of this move. I don't know if it has "legs", as they say in the biz!! Any move which begins without meeting the 3 criteria which I set in the newsletter is suspect until it proves itself. Let's look at this move in that context:

1) Is the structure complete? An A-B-C-D-E (triangle) does not always require that "E" make a new low. Perhaps A-B-C was a zigzag (5-3-5), but I can't see it as that. So E may still be ahead of us as a test of the lows, or a new low. There is another possibility, and that is that the correction has taken the form of a flat (3-3-5) from 1245. But that's not obvious to me and I really would have to stretch things to make that fit!

2) 1168 could have satisfied the minimum 1166 projection!!!

3) I can't fudge on this one. I can't find divergence in any of my oscillators. Neither can I find it in Stockcharts version of the McClellan oscillators.

And we have not broken out of a downtrend line, mainly because it is still much higher, around 1220.

So what are we doing here? I think that this is still part of the correction, but the 12-month cycle has made its low and giving prices a lift. However, the current pattern which started at 1168 looks suspiciouly like the consolidation that I called A-B on the hourly chart of the newsletter, but larger. This is normal because, being more oversold, the marketusually has a better rally from a lower level of the same correction. We have broken out of the smaller channel, but we are not likely to break out of the larger one and resume the uptrend in earnest without more consolidation/correction.

Finally, besides breaking out of a downtrend line, to confirm a bona fide reversal, prices must not only move out of the down trend line, but they must also move above the previous correction high. And that would be1233!

So let's see if we have some good follow throughfor this move! There is a lot of resistance between 1200 and 1210.

 

[The_Technician]

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See article....I decided to wait out the next several days and see where we go from here...I'm still seeing a negative bias to the market.....

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/25/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
:dude:

 

[Skip]

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We have to close above 1200 on the sp500 like I have said in the past if we don't we might have a few more points to the down side.... BUT THE SP500)) is still at a p/e ratio of 14 which is very low and we should be much higher for the mid and long term...
there is a ton of cash on the sidelines just waiting.... 1177 or 1165 ????
early this year 1165 was a great entry point. Maybe again ?

Skip

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 25, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Confidence startles stox.

Horsemen Krude back in town.

Elsewhere:...... Day 2 of bear chasing season!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1196.54, dn -2.84
CMF (money flow) at.-0.050, dn
RSI (strength) at......48.7, dn
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.........62.44, up 2.12

Tea Leaves:.................Green


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100% stox
S&P Stops:.....Alert: NA, Trail: 1177.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

Closing Comment

There was essentially no follow through to yesterday's rally, andalthough you could consider today's action the correction of a short-term overbought condition,the A/D gave up too much ground. This is probably a sign that we are not ready to start a genuine uptrend and reinforces my view that the intermediate lows may not yet have been made.

The next 2 days will be critical to this advance. If we fail to make some substantial headway with good A/D numbers to back up prices, I would look for the market to have another good pull-back. In the meantime, the SPX could still move up to about 1205 before reaching a short term top.

On the other hand, if this correction extends for a couple of days without giving up much ground, it could result in a good extension to the rally.

I believe that there may be a time pivot point in 2 days, but I don't know if it will be a high or a low.

 

[robo]

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Ageneral thought from, "The Cyclical Trader".

A general thought… It’s not necessary to trade everyday and it’s not necessary to know exactly what the market is planning to do in order to trade profitably. I have people asking me, “what do you think NOW” or “did you change your mind since the market did this or that”. Getting caught in the short term fluctuations of the market is something that can only create problems. Staying focused on the big picture and being constantly alert is what can give an advantage over other traders.

When the trend is down and the market rallies, I look for opportunities to go short. And when the trend is up, and the market drops, I look to buy. Trying to impose our will to the market, is something that definetely doesn’t pay. Will this downswing end? Yes, at some point. Is that a reason to go and buy in advance? No. Let’s wait until the market proves itself first. There will be time to buy.

I don’t say that I don’t jump in against the trend from time to time. That doesn’t make it right and it’s something I would love to stop doing. But based from what I read on different boards, there are many that expect the market to go and make new yearly highs and buy as the market goes down. What if the market doesn’t make new yearly highs? What if the market ended the rally that started in 2002? I don’t say it did. I just don’t know. But what if it did?

All in all… Stay focused, stay alert and have a “reason” to enter the market either on the long or short side.

I think new highs are coming and that 1170's was a excellent entry pointas skip pointed out above.Great P/Eratio for the S&P of around 14.........Is the big money waiting till after the next Fed increase, breakout above 1200's or trying for one more push down??? Any thoughts?

 

[Greg]

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10/25/05TSP Fund Share Prices

G-fund$11.06
F-fund$10.55-0.03-0.28%(AGG -0.30%)
C-fund$12.93-$0.03-0.23%(S&P500 -0.24%)
S-fund$15.37-$0.05-0.32%(WIL4500 -0.29%)
I-Fund$16.28$0.070.43%(MSCI 0.988%)

 

[mlk_man]

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robo wrote:

I think new highs are coming and that 1170's was a excellent entry pointas skip pointed out above.Great P/Eratio for the S&P of around 14.........Is the big money waiting till after the next Fed increase, breakout above 1200's or trying for one more push down??? Any thoughts?

The "window dressing" that happened at the end of the quarter last month happens every month but to a lesser extent. One "semi" rule of thumb is to jump in the 3rd trading day before the end of the month and jump out the 1st or 2nd day of the month.

Just an observation. Doesn't always work, but what does............:*

 

[vectorman]

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Greg wrote:

10/25/05TSP Fund Share Prices

G-fund$11.06
F-fund$10.55-0.03-0.28% (AGG -0.30%)
C-fund$12.93-$0.03-0.23% (S&P500 -0.24%)
S-fund$15.37-$0.05-0.32% (WIL4500 -0.29%)
I-Fund$16.28$0.070.43% (MSCI 0.988%)

I Fund, short changed again!!!

 

[Skip]

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Big $$$ waiting until FED's next move ???

I think so and that will be a big move for the 4th Q..
Trading range until then
1191 to 1205 or 1177 to 1205 ?
see chart...

 

[Greg]

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vectorman wrote:

Greg wrote:

10/25/05TSP Fund Share Prices

G-fund$11.06
F-fund$10.55-0.03-0.28% (AGG -0.30%)
C-fund$12.93-$0.03-0.23% (S&P500 -0.24%)
S-fund$15.37-$0.05-0.32% (WIL4500 -0.29%)
I-Fund$16.28$0.070.43% (MSCI 0.988%)

I Fund, short changed again!!!

They have been pulling numbers out of thin air for the last 10 days. I just noticed it today. THEY HAD BETTER STOP. I'm thinking about calling my congressman.

 

[The_Technician]

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Hey, I got out if the I fund in the black!!!! WOW!

and thats not short for WOnder Woman.....!

:^

 

[Skip]

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Just got this from TD waterhouse

For what its worth...

[align=right]




[align=center][font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Trim Domestic Stock Exposure
By Joseph Lisanti, Editor, The Outlook[/font][/align]




[align=center][font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]We now see the S&P 500 ending this year not much higher than where it began 2005. Next year, we expect only modest gains.[/font][/align]


[align=left]
[font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"][/font][/align]
[font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the face of rising interest rates, persistently high energy prices that could restrain consumer spending, and several downbeat corporate revenue forecasts, Standard & Poor's Investment Policy Committee has lowered its stock market expectations for this year and next. We now see the S&P 500 ending 2005 at 1220 (previously we had predicted 1270) and 2006 at 1290 (formerly 1335). [/font]

[font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Because of the lower targets, we have reduced our recommended domestic equities exposure to 45% from 50% and increased our foreign stock allocation to 20% from 15%. To effect these changes in our model exchange-traded fund portfolio, we suggest that you reduce your holdings in the S&P 500 to 35% (from 38%), the S&P MidCap 400 to 6% (from 7%), and the SmallCap 600 to 4% (from 5%). We advise increasing exposure to emerging markets to 3% (from 2%) and adding a 4% position in Japan (via the iShares MSCI Japan ETF; ticker EWJ). [/font]

[font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]This year has been a disappointment for investors, with the S&P 500 now below where it started 2005. We still expect a rally in the traditionally strong fourth quarter, and do not suggest that you abandon equities. [/font]

[font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The advance we anticipate should cause the market to end the year with a gain of less than 1%. If that expectation and our projection of a 5.7% advance in 2006 prove true, few investors will be delirious with excitement over the next 14 months. [/font]

[font="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]That's why we suggest that investors now tilt their portfolios to overweight stocks in the consumer staples and health care sectors. Demand for the goods and services provided by companies in these sectors tends to be relatively stable, no matter the economic conditions. In other words, if the cost of heating their homes and driving to work leaves people with fewer dollars to spend, necessities like food and medicine probably will take precedence over the purchase of new gadgets. [/font]
[/align]

 

[Skip]

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[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"][/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]From my favorite TECH... Ed Downs...[/font]

[align=right] [/align]



Key DOW Levels for 10/26

UP
Above 10,450

DN
Below 10,300[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"][/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Holding..[/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Dow holds yesterday's gain, bases above 10,300.[/font][font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]
From prior commentary, "...The index continues to trade within the boundaries of the large, volatile trading range, which will likely persist until a violation occurs..." [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow opened the session with additional gains after yesterday's big session and was able to hold its own after a fairly large mid-day pull-back. Once again, the Dow traded back and forth throughout the session in another bout with volatility before finally closing the day lower by just 7 points. The fact that the index was able to form a base above 10,300 gives us a clear level to watch as a fulcrum between bulls and bears. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The 15 and 60 Minute Charts show the Dow continues to hold beneath the key 10,425 level, but has also found support above 10,300. A breakout from this tight range may fuel the next key move, especially if an upside break through 10,450 occurs. Such a break could spark a steady upside continuation in the medium term. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]On the other hand, a break below the current two-day support at 10,315 will make for another near-term decline back toward the 10,225 to 10,275 zone. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term Dow [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow broke a clear intraday upper trend line at 10,350 late in the day, which fueled strength to the Close. Look for continued strength above 10,350 tomorrow morning, unless this level is crossed to the downside. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term Dow [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will watch 10,450 up, and 10,300 down; using 20 point stops. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]NASDAQ & S&P [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The NASDAQ and S&P each pulled back from early highs today, but were able to recover late in the session. Each index formed possible higher lows, which could fuel another advance, unless today's lows are breached. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow closed the day with a nice late-day rally, thus securing most of yesterday's gains. The index is basing above the 10,300 level, which is positive heading into tomorrow's market. However, clear-cut strength will not enter the market until 10,450 is solidly crossed and held. A break below 10,300 should spur another steady decline within the large trading range. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com [/font]

 

[tsptalk]

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mlk_man wrote:

One "semi" rule of thumb is to jump in the 3rd trading day before the end of the month and jump out the 1st or 2nd day of the month.

1st three days in November are very strong historically but this year Nov 1st is the Fed meeting.

 

[Mike]

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Seasonality hasn't mattered much this year. Historically strong January was a horrible month. Historically weak September saw a nice move up.

The following is my "glass is half full" perspective:

In spite of the war in Iraq - costing hundreds of billions, the numerous hurricanes - costing over 100 billion, the war in Afghanistan - costing tens of billions, the numerous extra security measures - costing tens of billions, the rising tensions with Iran pursuing nuclear weapons, oil costing $60 or more, gas costing $3+ for awhile (still well over $2), rising interest rates / inflation, and on and on and on - our economy continues to grow at a 3%+ rate, and the market is relatively flat rather than down substantially.

I'd say we're pretty resilient, wouldn't you?

FWIW, I think we remain volatile and in a trading range of 30 points or so on the SPX for awhile... then break out to the upside. As for next year, I have modest expectations (5-10% gain on the SPX at most) - there's nothing indicating oil prices will plunge anytime soon, though I believe they have stabilized. With energy prices / profits remaining high, the incentive to ramp up investment in further exploration / production is there, and I believe in the intermediate term (1-5 years), we will see that start to take hold and keep costs from rising much further... and perhaps even start to send them back down a bit (once you account for the fact that behavior will shift somewhat the longer prices remain as high as they are and things become more energy efficient).

That's my $0.02.

 

[teknobucks]

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051026/ap_on_hi_te/remote_control_for_humans

LOL