Market Talk

[bkrownd]

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The Technician wrote:

Hurricane coming north bound right for the oil fields....gonna take what little wind out of the sails of the market ........

The projections I read were that it was headed towards Florida, where it can't really damage anything other than Disneyworld and the nation's supply of ugly tropical houseplants. <yawn>

 

[robo]

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Spaf wrote:

Hmm! This ought to be easy to figure out.

Maybe!

Now that's COOL!I asked him about tomorrow and he said," The market will be up tomorrow".

Closing Comment

VST-ST: The market pushed a little higher in what is still probablyan oversold rally.

The next resistance level for the SPX is 1192 and, if it goes through it, could extend to 1196-1198.

There is a lot tougher resistance at 1200 and it would be a sign of strength returning to the market if the SPX were able to move through that level right away. The corresponding level of resistance for the QQQQ is 38.50.

The hourly indicators are not quite as bullish as they were at Friday's close, especially the A/D, and the MSO is still overbought.

Intermediate term: Still in a correction phase. Both the daily MSO and A/D indexes are trying to turn up but are not yet in a position of decisively reversing their trend.

The QQQQ is undergoing a milder correction than the SPX.

 

[Quips]

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4%2Bshtml/145344.shtml?5day?large

5 day projected path of the storm

 

[The_Technician]

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I only hope thats the path.....but as all projections in the past have done is .....changed.....so projections are almost worthless except for a day or two out....

You really have to look at the weather 3-4 days from the center of the storm to really see the changes as they happen....

The market if it has any steam to it in the oil crises of this year, will determine if it will jump the oil price up or not....I found out this morning that gas dropped 20 cents to $2.59 for the cheap stuff in the local area....good news or temporary news.....only the oil and gas futures market can tell....


Greenspud and oil.....price will have influence for some time to come....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20051018/bs_afp/
japanuseconomyoilenergygreenspan_051018081705;_ylt=AiKeXEPoaF9
_AVAEzej6pLKFOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl




:dude:

 

[Greg]

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The Dollar Index made a new 65-day high last night.
This won't be a good day for the I-fund.

 

[grandma]

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Quips wrote:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4%2Bshtml/145344.shtml?5day?large

5 day projected path of the storm

Thank you, Quips, for the link. I've been trying to watch (friends in Dominican Republic, and, of course, Our Dear friend in PuertoRico-PR) but hadn't been able to tell if Wilma was coming from SE of Cuba or not. This shows that Wilma probably not a problem - am I right PR??

 

[grandma]

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bkrownd wrote:

The projections I read were that it was headed towards Florida, where it can't really damage anything other than Disneyworld and the nation's supply of ugly tropical houseplants. <yawn>

I have a feeling there are a few Floridianson this board that would take strong exception to your statement. ... arrogance is not an enduring quality.

 

[The_Technician]

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PPI numbers verifying inflation data....cost to consumers is passed on as you would expect...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/18/markets/markets_nyopen/index.htm

Its gonna be a hard road for any near future rise in the markets....

Bonds going up.....but for how long....not long in my book....G fund is on par on average with the F fund right now

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/18/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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grandma wrote:

Quips wrote:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4%2Bshtml/145344.shtml?5day?large

5 day projected path of the storm

Thank you, Quips, for the link. I've been trying to watch (friends in Dominican Republic, and, of course, Our Dear friend in PuertoRico-PR) but hadn't been able to tell if Wilma was coming from SE of Cuba or not. This shows that Wilma probably not a problem - am I right PR??

There appears to be a split in the weather just west of Tampa...right at the moment, I would expect the storm to aim in that direction.....

But that puts us in the thoughts of what the market may think.....do they preceive it as an oil supply threat or not.....it use to be be that presumptions were ridiculed, a corporation would always wait until its costs would go up before raising their product rates....but that was in the days of character.....today its all about making money.....a sign of the times apparently....only thing is when energy interest raise rates like they have here over the last few years without a product production cost to coincide with it, other parts of the economy pay dearly for it.....

So, if you lose your job or home due to higher energy costs, go knock on their door for costing you and your family so much........

They deserve the payback.

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Quoted from Econoday

"Friday's CPI proved the worst in 25 years though prices outside of oil remained quiet. But a similar spike in the PPI would indicate future pass through to the consumer level in what would be a very big negative for stocks and bonds but a likely positive for the dollar. "

So, down stocks and bonds but get a rise out of the dollar....I fund sinks then .....means everything sinks....except G fund...

:?

 

[The_Technician]

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A divergence in the funds...indicated with the S fund plot of std dev levels as shown here recently...plot is of the last 350 days.....

This would indicate the market weakness...

:^

 

[robo]

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The S&P 500 bounced from below its uptrend line so it may take a little longer for it to make a sustained venture above the support band, but the index is likely to explore the four point range within the band for a day or so. The band is now serving as overhead resistance."

The bigger test is whether or not the index will manage to close above the upper border at 1194.90 -- I will have my doubts until there is a pullback and another test.

 

[The_Technician]

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The Technician wrote:

Quoted from Econoday

"Friday's CPI proved the worst in 25 years though prices outside of oil remained quiet. But a similar spike in the PPI would indicate future pass through to the consumer level in what would be a very big negative for stocks and bonds but a likely positive for the dollar. "

So, down stocks and bonds but get a rise out of the dollar....I fund sinks then .....means everything sinks....except G fund...

:?

Well if you look closely at my allocation I went I fund for a short period....the dollar value has some challenges ahead and the current is swiftly against it gaining strength.....it will take time with all the economics for the strength to show....is it the Euro or yuan or is it the Dollar.....only time will tell......seeing the M3 has been pumping along, the most likely scenario in the near future is the dollar gets weaker....it dictates it so.....and Greenspud will have to come to the Mexican standoff....is it the dollar strength with economics on our side or is it the national debt....wanna bet he goes with the national debt.....this really comes down to forced taxation.....of course we could just go broke!!!!

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

Closing Comment

With the SPX MSO overbought since Friday, and the inability of the index to rise above 1192, the current pull-back is perfectly normal.

Since the market has already retraced just over 50% of its rally, and with the MSO very close to being oversold, it would be very bullish short-term, if the selling dried up by tomorrow morning. If it does not, we'll have to figure out what plan B will be.

The Qs continues to outperform the SPX, even on the very short term.

The only positive about today's market was the 1178 held on the S&P. I hope it holds tomorrow, and the selling has dried up as the Tech pointed out. Plan B doesn't sound good!

 

[Spaf]

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AH!

Whats plan B?

 

[robo]

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Spaf wrote:

AH!

Whats plan B?

I hope the Tech has one of these. I'm also hoping he does not need a plan B..... If he does, I'm sure it's SELL, SELL, SELL. It would be nice if the 1178 held and we could get a nice little rally...

Hmm! This ought to be easy to figure out.

Maybe!

 

[Skip]

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Someone with 30million shares of exon dump them today....
would that be smart money ?
Wonder who else is going to follow suit with more sells ?
Will the other funds start to dump holdings also ?
Plan B is wait till OCT is almost over and buy back in:^

Support held today and has been bouncing off of resistance at 1191
So a trading range of 1177 to 1191 is what we have for this week... A break out to the downside has support at 100% of this rally 1139 a long way to go.... but it will be a nice ride up as companies have more cash than ever.... We need to beack out above 1200 for a upside run... 2006 will be real nice... Nov and dec might get the sp500 a 8%
10% run So be ready with your cash....
holding 50% g 50% f
Skip

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 18, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Prices jump ~ Market slumps!
More fear about Horsemen (Rats and Inflate).

Elsewhere:.... Hurricane ebbs, lube eases.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at.............1178.14, dn -11.96
CMF (money flow) at.-0.143, dn
RSI (strength) at......34.4, dn
MACD (trend)....bearish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.........63.20, dn -1.16

Tea Leaves:.................Yellow


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 0/100
S&P Stops:.....Alert: NA, Trail: {1177}.
Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[bkrownd]

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grandma wrote:

I have a feeling there are a few Floridianson this board that would take strong exception to your statement. ... arrogance is not an enduring quality.

The point is that a track through Florida won't effect energy prices, and won't have any effect on the economy in other states. That's a fact, Jack.

 

[Greg]

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YTD Returns (since 12/31/2004)
I-fund4.72%
G-fund3.46%
S-fund1.63%
F-fund1.34%
C-fund-1.39%

Month-To-Date Returns for October (since 09/30/2005)
G-fund0.18%
F-fund-0.47%
C-fund-4.07%
I-fund-4.08%
S-fund-5.55%

L-funds Return since 08/01/2005 - Date that L-funds were started
L2040-2.42%
L2030-2.13%
L2020-1.66%
L2010-1.02%
L-Inc-0.09%
G Funds0.91%