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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
The S fund has finally been hammered down and I think any rebound in small caps will be slower than large caps. The C fund may be ready for some sunshine along with the I fund. The race will be exciting from this point forward. I'll be back to ground zero on the C fund at $12.60 - oh well at least the year isn't over yet.
The S fund has finally been hammered down and I think any rebound in small caps will be slower than large caps. The C fund may be ready for some sunshine along with the I fund. The race will be exciting from this point forward. I'll be back to ground zero on the C fund at $12.60 - oh well at least the year isn't over yet.
mlk_man
Banned
imported post
Tom, I just read your and RevShark's market comments and you pose some good questions. I have a question also. I'm wondering if these Fed guys are allowed to play the market themselves and if they do, do they have to report what they invest in? I"m not saying they might be manipulating the market for self gratification, but it seems it would be quite easy to short the market and then come out and say "We are going to keep raising rates".
I think I need a friend on the Fed.......................:^
Tom, I just read your and RevShark's market comments and you pose some good questions. I have a question also. I'm wondering if these Fed guys are allowed to play the market themselves and if they do, do they have to report what they invest in? I"m not saying they might be manipulating the market for self gratification, but it seems it would be quite easy to short the market and then come out and say "We are going to keep raising rates".
I think I need a friend on the Fed.......................:^
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Rolo wrote:
Ya'll watch it.....it don't have tendencies to move up at all during this time period over the next month or so.....
Just ask Mike if he misjudged it.....
:dude:
Rolo wrote:
Ya'll watch it.....it don't have tendencies to move up at all during this time period over the next month or so.....
Just ask Mike if he misjudged it.....
:dude:
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Some comments from a tech:
Some comments from a tech:
Rolo's 1180 could provide lots of support when we sell off again, but it's to early to tell without being tested.Looks like April all over again when it sold off to 1130's and hit the trend line.We discussed a possible bouncein yesterdays reportand while it looked like it was happening during the first two hours of trading, for the next four hours the market declined relentlessly until a final rally in the last twenty minutes. We are much closer to getting a bounce today orTuesday at the latest. For the nimble trader, one who is willing to gamble on a quick one or two day turnaround, buying today will provide a limited risk trade close to a logical stop loss. We'll take a look at the trade below.
The next chart shows the relationship of the S&P 500 and its support band between 1190 and 1194.90. The ovals highlight the passages through the band and the reversals within the band as well. There is a good chance that yesterday's close within the band will lead to a tradable reversal. A reasonably safe way of playing it is to use the trendline from the October 25, 2004 low through the April low as a mental stop loss. Doing so limits the risk roughly to the 1% between yesterday's close at 1191.49 and the trendline at 1180, plus the slippage resulting from the buy and sell.
vectorman
Active member
imported post
Can anyone verify if the stock market is closed on monday. I keep hearing on CNBC that just currencies and fixed income is closed? Thenews that I'm seeingshows stocks and futures open on monday.
Monday Oct 10
USA Holiday: Columbus Day - Stock and Futures Open
Click link, then checkToday's Calendar for Oct 10th
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Can anyone verify if the stock market is closed on monday. I keep hearing on CNBC that just currencies and fixed income is closed? Thenews that I'm seeingshows stocks and futures open on monday.
Monday Oct 10
USA Holiday: Columbus Day - Stock and Futures Open
Click link, then checkToday's Calendar for Oct 10th
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
Show-me
Well-known member
imported post
vectorman wrote:
http://www.nasdaq.com/about/schedule.stm
vectorman wrote:
Stock market is open on Monday! I made the same mistake. TSP has nothing about the holiday!
http://www.nasdaq.com/about/schedule.stm
robo
Well-known member
imported post
mlk_man wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
The chart I posted was the closing price 1191 S&P, but the low for the day was around 1183... Tom's chart shows that low point.... If it closes below the trend linewe could head down to the 1150's. If we test the trend line again and it holdsthis could be bullish.
vectorman
Active member
imported post
I noticed in todays market comments, that Tom did not include that statement about if the job report differs by more than 50,000 than what is expected.....
Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times. Its average return was minus 0.5%. Markets don’t like surprises because they create uncertainty.
Ten days after a negative surprise of 50K jobs or more, the S&P was higher 55% of the time. Ten days after a positive surprise of 50K or more, it was lower 58% of the time.
Ninety days after a large negative surprise, the S&P showed an average return of +5.1%. Ninety days after a large positive surprise, its average return was 1.7%.
The correlation between surprises in the jobs number and 90-day returns in the S&P 500 has been -.32. This means that the more positive the surprise, the more negative the performance in the S&P and vice-versa. Given the sample size, this is significant.
I noticed in todays market comments, that Tom did not include that statement about if the job report differs by more than 50,000 than what is expected.....
Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times. Its average return was minus 0.5%. Markets don’t like surprises because they create uncertainty.
Ten days after a negative surprise of 50K jobs or more, the S&P was higher 55% of the time. Ten days after a positive surprise of 50K or more, it was lower 58% of the time.
Ninety days after a large negative surprise, the S&P showed an average return of +5.1%. Ninety days after a large positive surprise, its average return was 1.7%.
The correlation between surprises in the jobs number and 90-day returns in the S&P 500 has been -.32. This means that the more positive the surprise, the more negative the performance in the S&P and vice-versa. Given the sample size, this is significant.
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