Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Oct. 2, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Dow gains in September with averages up for the Q3!

Elsewhere:...... Sentiment talk has it that storms + energy rise = a consumer hit; a slower economy.

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

-> http://www.bullandbearwise.com/


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at................ 1228.81, up +13.52 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at.. +0.033, dn
RSI (strength) at........ 54.3, up [O.B.=70,O.S.=30]
MACD (trend)...... at crossing
S-STO (signal)..... bullish
P-SAR (signal)..... bullish
ROC (change)...... bullish (+0.13)

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............ 66.20, up +2.01 for the week.

Attachment:......... S&P (3mo) chart ending 9/30. Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, S-STO, and ROC.


Tea leaves:.................... Yellow (Oil=worry).


Yak.

Remarks:..................... Holding 50/50.
S&P Stops:................... Alert: 1217 (-1%), Trailing: 1205 (-2%).
Oil Markers:................. <64 = ok, 64-69 = worry, >69 = critical.
Weekly TSP Returns:.... G=+.01, F=-.04, C=+.15, S=+.32, I=+.37

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7960868

http://safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=3866&pv=1


http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/4/9/70906994.html

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Many technicians are waiting for a breakout - only no one knows which direction the break out will take. The SPX must break out above 1245 to generate a raging bull BUY signal. This could easily be the week true colors show the direction.

 

[Quips]

imported post

It will be interesting how the employment figures this Friday will be interpreted. Analysts are looking for a net loss of jobs due to Katrina and an uptick in unemployment to 5.1% from 4.9%.

That said, one would need to determine how the financial powers that be interpret that: will the markets sell off under the presumption that the Fed has gone too far, or will the markets go up seeing that an increase in unemployment will check the inflation threat.

It will be spun one way or another ... and it would help to see crude oil prices drop a few percent by Friday for the icing on the cake.

 

[Greg]

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TSP Fund Returns for 3rd Quarter 2005
June 30th thru September 30th

I-fund 10.31%
S-fund 5.39%
C-fund 3.59%
G-fund 1.10%
F-fund -0.66%

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

Many technicians are waiting for a breakout - only no one knows which direction the break out will take. The SPX must break out above 1245 to generate a raging bull BUY signal. This could easily be the week true colors show the direction.

Dennis,

We bounced off the higher low! The direction is unsure with the high energy cost. However we are in 4Q which has generally been good. As far as a raging bull, I don't think so, not with the impact of the storms. However, seasonality, this is probably our better time frame.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Ring....Ring

Hello this is TSP

Hello TSP this is Spaf. I need a loan to buy a bass boat! I want to go croppie fishing!

Well Spaf how much do you need?

I think about $20K would do it!

OK! We can do a general loan, but will need the OK of your spouse!

My spouse, She doesn't contribute to TSP! Besides she wants a pontoon boat to party on. I want a bass boat to go fishing on!

Sorry Spaf, thats the rules, she has to sign off on it!

Thanks TSP <hang up>

[Well that is TSP, if only I'd invested in another source]

Woops! Just woke up, another bad dream! Spaf

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

I agree with your wife; get the pontoon boat you can fish and party.

I still believe there will be a down turn and like Tom I am waiting to get backin, I am alittle upset I let the I fund slip through my fingers last two weeks, I temporally lost my sense for adventure for the short term, while I was making some home repairs. The Bull run may be in the I fund and I believe we may be looking at the lows now.



More important issues:

I am looking for a tri- toon that will do well in salt water FL East Coast

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Oct. 3, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Averages Mixed! Aluminum weighs DOW.

Elsewhere: Manufacturing strong = bad. Vestors scared of Cartel and their creature horseman Rats.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at............1226.70, dn -2.11
CMF (money flow) at.0.034, up
RSI (strength) at.....52.6, dn
MACD (trend)....undetermined
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)...undetermined

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at...........65.47, dn -0.77

Tea Leaves:.................Yellow (oil=worry)


Yak.

Remarks:.....Holding 50/50
S&P Stops:...Alert: 1217, Trail: 1205.
Oil Markers:.<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[robo]

imported post

Some comments from analysts about the USD.... Current Price USD 90.13


U.S. DOLLAR ANALYSTS COMMENTS

Mitul Kotecha, head of global currency research at Calyon.
Monday, October 3, 2005

AFX News - "The ISM is consistent with positive momentum in the manufacturing sector despite higher energy prices and Hurricane Katrina. Given the strong correlation between the dollar and US rate expectations at present suggests that the dollar will remain well supported."



Andrew Pyle, economist at Scotia Capital.
Monday, October 3, 2005

Reuters - "The gain in the headline ISM takes us back to levels seen in the third quarter of last year, which will reinforce for some the view that underlying economic conditions in the U.S. were and are still strong, despite hurricane-related damage."



Derek Halpenny, analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
Monday, October 3, 2005

Reuters - "The dollar has begun the final quarter of the year on a strong footing, with the key 1.2000 support for the euro broken and the dollar threatening to breach the 114.00 level against the yen."



Simon Derrick, currency strategist at Bank of New York.
Monday, October 3, 2005

AFX News - "Although a variety of reasons have been cited for the dollar's sharp rally over the weekend, it seems to us that the key to understanding the move lies, once again, in the interest rate markets."



Etsuko Yamashita, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.
Monday, October 3, 2005

Reuters - "After Katrina, people thought U.S. economic data would sharply deteriorate, but the numbers haven't turned out so bad."



Kazuhiro Nishina, foreign exchange manager at Aozora Bank.
Monday, October 3, 2005

AFX News - "While the Tankan report was not that bad, it did not contain positive surprises, at least to the extent of reversing the bullish sentiment towards the US dollar."



Josh Whiting, currency dealer at CMC Markets.
Monday, October 3, 2005

AFX News - "We're seeing dollar strength across the board this morning but the market is quite thin today with Sydney being on holiday. The trend of the US data major releases has been dollar bullish over the last week so if that continues then we will probably see more dollar strength."



Seiya Nakajima, chief economist at Itochu Corp.
Monday, October 3, 2005

Reuters - "People who had wanted to buy the dollar but had been waiting for the tankan are now rushing to buy it."



Mike Kaizer, currency trader at Manufacturers and Traders Bank.
Friday, September 30, 2005

Reuters - "Everybody was kind of expecting pretty bad numbers showing lower spending and when that happened they decided to exit their positions. It was 'buy the rumor, sell the fact'. When the numbers hit, people sold the euro. But there wasn't much movement. People are waiting for the (Michigan) confidence number, and then the Chicago PMI."



Naeem Wahid, economist at HBOS.
Friday, September 30, 2005

AFX News - "The dollar rally appears to be losing upward momentum."



Adam Myers, currency strategist at UBS.
Friday, September 30, 2005

Reuters - "The dollar has now had enough juice out of interest rate expectations, and it is not going to be the dominant theme for the market that it has been."



Cornelius Luca, economist at Global Forex Trading Ltd.
Friday, September 30, 2005

Global Forex Trading Ltd - "The dollar is overbought in the short term, but its attempt to pull back down in early trading on Thursday was thwarted by a better than expected weekly jobless claims report. It then slipped again, just enough to close little changed and choppy trading should persist during the last day of the month and of the quarter."



Piet Lammens, chief strategist at KBC Bank.
Friday, September 30, 2005

KBC Bank - "Regarding the dollar, we know that for the moment it isn’t an item, but the news reports coming out of Iraq seem worrying with bomb attacks galore. This is an explosive situation to watch out for. But that isn’t the most important item to watch out for concerning the dollar. Indeed, now the eco data coming up should at least show some resilience as everybody expects them to."



Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Financial.
Friday, September 30, 2005

Reuters - "The (Fed) comments are helping, but I think the market is well within recent ranges. The yen is the one which is perhaps looking a bit vulnerable at the moment as it's independently weak."



John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank.
Friday, September 30, 2005

AAP - "It was probably higher overnight but it's come off after those jobless claims in the US fell by much more than expected. The jobless claims fell by a lot more than expected and I guess the message there is that the impact of the hurricanes look to be temporary. While that's the case obviously the underlying strength of the US economy is for continued raising of interest rates."



Yasuhiro Takei, foreign exchange dealer at Hachijuni Bank.
Friday, September 30, 2005

AFX News - "As the market is getting bored of buying the dollar on expectations for further (US) rate hikes, any good Tankan headline numbers may send the US unit into a short downward trend. Emerging expectations for a possible exit from the prolonged quantitative monetary easing (policy) are also likely to weigh on the dollar, if the Tankan survey at least comes in line with the expectations."



Nas Nijjar and Enis Mehmet, economists at CMC Markets Plc.
Friday, September 30, 2005

CMC Markets Plc - "Traders remain squarely committed to the dollar as we approach the mid-point of the financial year. Messages keep coming out of the Fed that underline the fact there’s going to be a need for monetary policy to remain quite aggressive well into 2006 as inflationary pressures continue to apply."



Chotaro Morita, chief bond strategist at Deutsche Securities.
Friday, September 30, 2005

Reuters - "What's more important is (industrial output) figures after September when companies start boosting production ahead of the Christmas season. There are expectations that growth may slow in overseas economies towards the end of the year, and how that may affect production data needs to be monitored carefully."



Haseeb Ahmed, U.S. economist at JP Morgan.
Friday, September 30, 2005

Reuters - "The message from these (jobless) numbers is the labor market has not shown any broad-based deterioration in the aftermath of Katrina."



Joe Francomano, vice president of foreign exchange at Erste Bank.
Thursday, September 29, 2005

Reuters - "With this jobless claims number, I don't know what the final figure would be, but some economists may have to revise their payrolls estimates."

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Woops! Just woke up, another bad dream! Spaf

hahaha...that was funny.

Both of you are wrong: get a speedboat with a couple of Mercurys.

...and another $10K for gas.

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

I made my IFT today the same way I always do and I put my e-mail address the same way but this time I got a e-mail message confiriming my transfer had taken place with the breakdown.



This is the first time I ever got a e-mail confirmation regarding my IFT and they have taken place in the past.

Anyone know whats up with this?

A pontoon boat trip to the sand-bar---> priceless

 

[Spaf]

imported post

JOVARN wrote:

I made my IFT today the same way I always do and I put my e-mail address the same way but this time I got a e-mail message confiriming my transfer had taken place with the breakdown.

This is the first time I ever got a e-mail confirmation regarding my IFT and they have taken place in the past.

Anyone know whats up with this?

A pontoon boat trip to the sand-bar---> priceless

Jovarn,
Normally I get a e-mail confirmation around 9PM CT, listing the old and the new breakdown. Is this what you are referring to?

A lot of us use the e-mail confirmation to save TSP the postage, and delays in the mail.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Spaf wrote:

Normally I get a e-mail confirmation around 9PM CT, listing the old and the new breakdown.

Ditto.

Use the attached decoder wheel to convert your e-mail to readable format for Quicken, Money, etc.

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

RE: E-mail confirmation of IFT

The only confirmation I ever got was once when I did a IFT by phone. I never get them by snail mail or E-Mail. Yesterday was the first time.

Thanks for the information

They delivered my new screen room yesterday that Iordered following; last years hurricane when mine blew down, they were to install it today. Guess what, as I look out my window the palm trees are bending and the winds are gusting to 30 MPH. I walked up to the beach and there isn't one there anymore. Guess I will have to wait a bit longer for my screen room. Tropical force winds and up to6 inches of rain predicated. Could be worse

Lets go I fund; Lets GO!!

My beard is getting longer I have been waiting for the C-fund and the Dollar to both drop. Whats up with that

 

[teknobucks]

imported post

Storms destroyed 108 offshore platforms



Tuesday October 4, 4:19 PM EDT


By Tom Doggett and Chris Baltimore

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A total of 108 low producing oil and natural gas offshore platforms were destroyed by hurricanes Rita and Katrina and some of the other 53 heavily damaged platforms could be offline until next year, the U.S. Interior Department said on Tuesday.

The destroyed platforms likely will not be rebuilt, Interior Secretary Gale Norton told reporters, adding that repairing damage elsewhere would run into the "billions of dollars."

In a briefing on the damage done by the hurricanes, the department also said that 90 percent of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is still shut-in and 72 percent of offshore natural gas production is still offline.

Norton said the destroyed platforms account for about 1.7 percent of oil output in the Gulf of Mexico and 0.9 percent of natural gas production.



Repairs to platforms with major damage could run into next year, while restaffing unmanned rigs that escaped damage so they can operate again could take another 10 days, she said.

"Major repairs may take months and some facilities into next year," Norton told reporters. Some 50 platforms were damaged by the two hurricanes.

Restoring production to platforms with minor damage could take several more weeks, she said.

Johnnie Burton, the head of the Interior Department's Minerals Management Service, said that 30 percent of offshore oil and gas production may be shut-in because of damage to onshore oil refineries and natural gas processing plants.

A dozen oil refineries and 21 gas processing plants remain offline after the hurricanes.

Norton added the department will not know for several more weeks exactly how much shut Gulf production is due to damaged facilities onshore and how much damaged offshore platforms and underwater pipelines are at fault.

Burton said the damage done to underwater pipelines by the two hurricanes was not as severe as the damage done from underwater mudslides caused by Hurricane Ivan last year.

Some 342 offshore platforms are still evacuated after the hurricanes plowed through the heart of oil and gas producing region, she added.

The Interior Department and U.S. Coast Guard are investigating why Chevron Corp.'s (CVX) Typhoon tension leg platform capsized, while similar platforms remained intact, Burton said.

"There's no reason to think that the wind was strong enough to capsize it," Burton said, speculating that another rig could have collided with the Typhoon platform, which had produced 40,000 barrels per day of crude oil.

The MMS is focusing on methods of anchoring offshore drilling rigs to the sea floor, after 19 rigs slipped from their moorings during Katrina and Rita and dragged their anchors, possibly damaging underwater pipelines.

Regulators and industry will meet on November 17 to discuss the issue, Norton said.

Katrina churned through the Gulf of Mexico with winds of over 155 mph before striking the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts on August 29. Rita hit the Texas-Louisiana border on September 24 with winds of 120 mph.


©2005 Reuters Limited.

 

[Citizen]

imported post

I have a dumb question.

I know that somebody from the Fed today said that inflation was about as high as the Fed would tolerate, meaning that interest rates would go up soon. Very shortly after this, the humongous stock market shifted direction like a hummingbird heading to a close near to or a full percent down across all the domestic indices.

How is it that the entire stock market can pivot like that based on interest rates going up? Isn't it self evident that the Fed is raising interest rates and is going to continue? What is the surprise and how can the rumor of interest rates drive the market down like that?

BTW, I'm not unhappy about it, I am just curious to how the machine works. I've been playing with some stocks, and it's really weird to see how erratic individual stocks move in comparison to the market in general. Hansen's Natural lost5% today, which is on a lot of buy lists out there, and Can West Petroleum Company gained 3% for a total of 34% up in 3 days and that stock is considered very high risk and speculative.

Wow, this is fun.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Citizen wrote:

How is it that the entire stock market can pivot like that based on interest rates going up?

The question assumes a fact; how do you know the rate hike is the onlycause?

 

[mlk_man]

imported post

Citizen wrote:

I have a dumb question.

I know that somebody from the Fed today said that inflation was about as high as the Fed would tolerate, meaning that interest rates would go up soon. Very shortly after this, the humongous stock market shifted direction like a hummingbird heading to a close near to or a full percent down across all the domestic indices.

How is it that the entire stock market can pivot like that based on interest rates going up? Isn't it self evident that the Fed is raising interest rates and is going to continue? What is the surprise and how can the rumor of interest rates drive the market down like that?

BTW, I'm not unhappy about it, I am just curious to how the machine works. I've been playing with some stocks, and it's really weird to see how erratic individual stocks move in comparison to the market in general. Hansen's Natural lost5% today, which is on a lot of buy lists out there, and Can West Petroleum Company gained 3% for a total of 34% up in 3 days and that stock is considered very high risk and speculative.

Wow, this is fun.

Could be all in the wording. From looking at this statement, I'd think there was no end in site as far as rate increases. Most people saw only a couple more at most. If this person you mentioned is legit, then the impression I get is they will raise rates past what most thought was the target. Of course this leads us to the next fed meeting and allows Greenspan to look like a hero if he raises the rate .25% and includes a statement like "the need for continued measured rate increases may be coming to an end".

Sort of like Bill Parcells saying "we are going to make an extra effort to run the ball this game" and then ends up throwing it 50 times..........

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

We all need the ability to see what is happening in June 2006 - that is probably exactly where the market may be looking - to the future. Today's trading sell off was probably program trading nonsense - nothing to be overly concerned about. The hedge funds try to create volatility so thay can trade to try and make quick $.