Market Talk

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I thought maybe a wordon accumulation on the S&P indexwas in store....;)

Accumulation numbers have droppedto levels we obtained in the first week of March....doesn't look like there is interest in the market and when a market is spooked it keeps running down.........:s


Looking for the S&P to be in the low 1180's by end of next week Birtch.....keep your shorts on!!! (Hmmm, I think I made a pun and a funny at the same time...:l)


Bull trap is in play.....and the Bears claws are taken a swipe!!!! :^

:dude:The Technician
 
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Some comments from a Tech:
Thursday 8/25/05 Morning Comment

There is no follow through weakness from yesterday's sell-off. This is a small positive which adds itself to other small positives that, so far, have not been able to turn the short-term trend around. It is still confined to very clearly defined down channels.

Yesterday's low did not quite make itto the bottom of the channel on both the SPX and QQQQ. It would be very bearish if we broke through the lower channel trendline, unless it came as a result of a quick, climactic action on heavy volume which reversed prices to the upside immediately. But since there are no conventional cycles which couldfoster this type of action in the very near future, this is not a likely scenario. More likely is either a continuation of this drifting pattern, reaching a VST projection, reversing, but being unable to move through the channel's top line, until it is finally penetrated.

The positive divergences are still there, especially in the hourly A/D which, believe it or not, made its low 3 weeks ago, and has been making a series of higher lows since.

Since so much of the market action seems to be tied to oil (???) what can we say about that commodity?
On an daily chart, the current pattern is almost identical to the final topping pattern made in July. There is obvious deceleration, and the point and figure chart did show a potential for 59, as I mentioned previously. But the 90-minute chart shows that it is capable of one more little up wave to complete a 5-wave pattern. So, the equity markets will probably make their lows in conjunction with a crude oil high, and this could take a couple more days to accomplish.

Slightly lower lows in the SPX and QQQQ are very possible and the cycle window of which I spoke earlier extends into tomorrow with the convergence of a 90 and 180 TD CIT cycle turn date.

Still 30 min to close, and it looks like the 1210 support is ok.... It's been ugly lately the last 15 min.....

Marketstillsellingoff.

A rally the last 15 min would be nice for those going to defense today.....


Tech could be correct about tomorrows sell off. Is oil going to 70?
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date August 25, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Kingdom worries as Krude takes vestors into the deep dark swamp.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1212.37, up +2.78
CMF (money flow) at -0.225. dn
RSI (strength) at 42.1, up
MACD (trend) bearish
S-STO (signal) bearish
ROC (change) bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 67.49, up +0.17

Tea Leaves: Red


Yak.

Remarks: Holding90-10-0-0-0
S&P Stops: Alert= NA, Trail= NA.
Oil Markers: <63= ok, 63-68= worry, >68= panic.
 
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Some comments from a Tech:
AT A GLANCE: We are still looking for a rally after the Labor Day holiday, and an attempt at a new high above 1245. However, more evidence is accumulating to support the expectation of a serious decline thereafter. The timing is still unclear since the expectation is based on long term indicators, but as we get closer, our shorter term indicators should help us respond in a timely manner.



[align=left]The S&P 500 broke below the 1216.96 June high, and fell below its 50-day moving average. The head and shoulders pattern projects the decline to 1203, and it is very likely that there will be at least a bounce before the index drops below that level. If 1203 is broken, we have the 200-day moving average and the support band to provide support. I do not envision a drop below 1190 before a solid attempt is made to regain the 1245 high after the Labor Day holiday.st 2

25derfSP.gif
[/align]
 
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well everything sure looks coiled up 4 something....... just have a bad feeling this market is ready to roll over 5-7%:s
 
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teknobucks wrote:
well everything sure looks coiled up 4 something....... just have a bad feeling this market is ready to roll over 5-7%:s
and i thought it was just me...lol
 
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Urine Battery Turns Pee Into Power

John Roach
for National Geographic News

August 18, 2005
Before you next flush the toilet, consider this: Scientists in Singapore have developed a battery powered by urine.

Researchers at the Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology created the credit card-size battery as a disposable power source for medical test kits.


Scientists have been scrambling to create smaller, more efficient, and less expensive "biochips" to test for diseases such as diabetes. Until now, however, similarly small batteries to power the devices remained elusive.

Diagnostic test kits commonly analyze the chemical composition of a person's urine to detect a malady. Ki Bang Lee and his colleagues realized that the substance being tested—urine—could also power the test.

"In order to address this problem, we have designed a disposable battery on a chip, which is activated by biofluids such as urine," Lee wrote in an e-mail to National Geographic News.

The research team describes the battery in the current issue of the Journal of Micromechanics and Microengineering.

Daniel Kammen, director of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley, said the technology is a welcome innovation in a time of rising energy prices.

"All jokes [about] urine aside, what is needed are low-cost batteries. …" he said. "The other neat thing about this is the fact that it's basically a biodegradable battery."

Urine Power

To make the battery, Lee and his colleagues soaked a piece of paper in a solution of copper chloride and sandwiched it between strips of magnesium and copper. This sandwich was then laminated between two sheets of transparent plastic.

When a drop of urine is added to the paper through a slit in the plastic, a chemical reaction takes place that produces electricity, Lee said.

The prototype battery produced about 1.5 volts, the same as a standard AA battery, and runs for about 90 minutes. Researchers said the power, voltage, and lifetime of the battery can be improved by adjusting the geometry and materials used.


CONTINUED 1 | 2 Next >>

Urine contains many ions (electrically charged atoms), which allows the electricity-producing chemical reaction to take place in the urine battery, said UC Berkeley's Kammen. Other bodily fluids, such as tears, blood, and semen, would work easily as well to activate the battery.

"Little bags of urine may generate chuckles," Kammen said. "But really urine is just a nice example [of] a whole variety of compounds that do this stuff." Even children's lunch-box fruit-juice packets are sufficient, he added.


Alternative Energy

While medical devices inspired the urine battery, it can activate any electric device with low power consumption, according to Lee, the battery's co-inventor.

"For example, we can integrate a small cell phone and our battery on a plastic card. This can be activated by body fluids, such as saliva, during an emergency," he said.

According to Kammen the technology could even be applied to laptop computers, mp3 players, televisions, and cars. Body-fluid-powered batteries "can do all kinds of things. The issue is how they scale up" to produce more power, he said.

One approach is to simply build larger batteries. Another method is to link lots of little battery cells side by side, which is how the batteries in laptop computers work, Kammen explained.

Kammen, who advocates government funding for alternative energy research, says the wide number of applications for cheap and efficient biofluid-powered batteries illustrates the value of research. "Investigation leads to innovation," he said.

Free E-Mail News Updates
Sign up for our Inside National Geographic newsletter. Every two weeks we'll send you our top stories and pictures (see sample).

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0818_050818_urinebattery.html
 
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My initial concerns for the DMA going away golden praise party was that he might drown, but I realize now that concern was misdirected - I should have been considering the possibility of inadvertent electrocution from all that golden praise.

DMA is now on a forum from Market Thoughts .com known as Dubious - still same bs.
 
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I must take a moment to say I like the way TSP-Elvis makes his moves - he has the right idea. Tekno is coming back in leveraging down - go Katrina.
 
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Birchtree wrote:
My initial concerns for the DMA going away golden praise party was that he might drown, but I realize now that concern was misdirected - I should have been considering the possibility of inadvertent electrocution from all that golden praise.

DMA is now on a forum from Market Thoughts .com known as Dubious - still same bs.
hehehehe:)knew u would like this article

dma on market thoughts huh?? what is dubious saying now...no sunrise tommorow?? or was it that houses, stocks, bonds,guns, and butter all worthless in two weeks???:?
 
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At around 1500 hours the DJIA was down over 50 points and within 15 minutes it rallied to negative 17 points - held for a minute and began falling back to eventually close at negative 54. The rally was caused by oil dropping $1.36 and the pull back was caused by Greenspan's nonsense - wants to hurt the newly minted home owner. This market is very emotional and sensitive - just the opposite of how I want to function. As long as we don't get a Dow Theory sell signal with the DJIA retesting the 10,012 level and the DJT retesting the 3379 level - I shall continue to do dollar cost averaging and dividend reinvestment until the psychology changes for the better. There is always a silver thread.
 
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Birchtree wrote: There is always a silver thread.

Jamie Dlugosch wrote :Or we're walking on sunshine....
Some comments from a Rational Investor: 8-24-05

Shining profits in a stormy market
With all the talk of trouble in the market today, from rising gas prices to inflation to Hurricane Katrina, you'd think things were looking bad out there.

In fact, Jamie Dlugosch, our and defending Strategy Lab champ, reminds us this week, it's the talk that can take you down. "Could this be the calm before the storm? Maybe. I just wonder how many investment gurus, pros and press are pulling their hair out as this market convolutes day after day with ultimately no movement," he writes. "It really is enough to drive one crazy."

"Of course," he adds, "that is what the market will do to you if watching on a daily or minute-by-minute basis. Trying to guess the direction in such a choppy environment is futile. Stake your claim and let the chips fall where they may is the order of the day."

Dlugosch has staked his claim with a 17-stock, all-long Lab portfolio that has lost ground over the past couple of weeks. Four of his positions are now in the red -- last week it was just two -- and his portfolio, at $114,000, is down about $4,000 from the start of the month.


But he still doesn't see the sort of risks -- of inflation, of recession, or of a consumer collapse -- that would lead him to change course. "As for stocks, my take is that downside risk is minimal. There is no clear reason to sell," he writes. "With my diversified portfolio, I am positioned to be rewarded as the underlying businesses continue to grow. I’ll be the first to sell if things become irrationally exuberant, but there is no sign of that today."

He's also still sitting on the kind of gains that help you weather a storm -- up about 35% on PortalPlayer, Geron and Giant Industries, to name just three.

Indeed, while pessimism is growing, it may very well just be a case of the summer blahs. Yes, the market is in go-nowhere mode. But the major indexes are down at worst 1% over the past week and the past month; over the past three months, the Dow is flat, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up. Hardly a tropical storm-sized blow-off.

Meanwhile, despite this summer slump, the Nasdaq remains up 11% since we started Round 12 of Strategy Lab, and the other two major indexes are solidly up as well. Four of our traders are well ahead of all those benchmarks and a fifth Jon Markman, is beating the Dow and the S&P.

Not a bad market at all, it seems, despite all the storms out there. You might say -- to borrow a line from another Katrina and different Waves -- we're walking on sunshine.
 
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This fourth weekly decline in the equity index averages -- if anything good can be said about it -- is that it has been an orderly retreat. It hasn't been a rout.

I think the market is still piecing together the effect of higher petro costs

While China has become the world's largest sweatshop and has flooded the market place with "inflation fighting" low, low prices, China has been fueled by all kinds of commodities -- from oil to iron ore -- to do that.

Well, seems like the market has reached a tipping point between those two forces. I doubt if the equilibrium between the two has shifted where China's consumption of those commodities has surpassed its production of cheap goods for use in the West i.e. the rising cost of commodities has not offset the low cost of labor and production in China.

What percentage of China's economic base -- outside of agriculture -- produces for its own domestic consumption? Not much of it is my guess.The vast majority ofChinese workers earn subsistance wages. And their standard of living is way low.

So we are seeing an orderly retreat. I don't think anyone is really buying into a time of "stag-flation" now, but they are looking for signs of subdued inflation. Last month's rate of 1% spooked the market. Plus the increase in oil prices is not comforting either.

Anyway one puts it, as far as the cold, hard numbers go, any increase in China's consumption of natural resources and commodities andits effect on Western markets and consumers still results in productivity increases -- the dollar goes farther -- despite the rise in gasoline prices.
 
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]Market ListenerUpdate ForFridayAugust26,200512:20PMCDT


TODAY'S MARKET:The SELL signalis stillin place. Changing the Stop Level? Not yet! More volatility ahead.
The equity marketscontinue in a slow motion sell down. The SPX is down 1.13% and NDX down 0.92% on the week (at this moment). University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 89.1 down from a prior 92.7. The consumer is struggling.The Retail Index ($RLX) is moving down with the rest of the market.The Durable Goods number this week was disappointing and may still be crushing institutional optimism. There are two interesting "attitudes" of this market which have developed in recent weeks.


First, the VIX and CPC (put/call ratio) have been in a very consistent uptrend without the market selling of in any dramatic fashion. Since there have not been any real fear "spikes" in the VIX as we saw back in early July and mid-April, this move is beginning to appear to be a solid and longer termharbinger of a change in market attitude and price level. A readjustment is taking place.


Secondly, the markets seem to be drifting lower since the first of August as oil prices ($WTIC) drifted above $60 and floated higher. The higher oil prices cannot be attributed only to hurricane Katrina. It appears that my premise in my Aug 19 report of supply/demand kicking in is working its way into the broader market. Again, an attitude adustment seems to be taking place which is implying that the markets are re-valuing everything because the rising oil prices appear to be here for the long term.


Our model is making money for us because the markets are acting rationally without extremely volatile movements. I would be more concerned about a rally if we sold off dramatically. Volume is light.


Next week should alsobe a low volume week as we head into the long Labor Day weekend. (Monday Sep 5 - Markets will be closed). There is a load of economic news next week including GDP and payrolls numbers. It could be a very crazy and volatile week. Remain cautious and protect your profits !!!! But remember, we are on the correct side of this market with our SELL signal. There could be more profit ahead on the downside.

Another possible reason for the sell-down is that we are coming up on the 4 year anniversary of Sept. 11th. Are the markets worried that Al-Qaeda could be ready for another event on U.S. territory?A similar run-up in the VIX and sell-down in the markets occurred before 9/11/2001.Does somebody know something? Probably not, but the markets are being unnaturally cautious.


RISK: The downside market risk (probability of a sell-off) is dominated by geo-politics, oil and the vulnerable consumer. There is very little risk to our sell signal on the upside (probability of a huge rally). We are pretty safe here with a Sell signal and close cash stop.


FAULT TOLERANT CASH SAFETY STOP -Our stop levelshould stay the same for now. NDX=1606 Go to cash (RYMXX) on any daily close above 1606. The higher volatility predicted by the rising VIX is telling us thatmarket prices could "whipsaw" inthe near future and therefore we need to keep a wider exit stop point. Let's keep our exit level at 1606. Watch for my weekly report. I may have an update on this in that report based on today's closing prices.

Should the market sell off dramatically today or any day next week, I would be tempted to temporarily reduce my short/RYVNX position (dramatic sell-off of 2% or more on a daily basis accompanied by a peak in the VIX - over 18).

GOLD Bugs: $HUI / $XAU / NEM,gold mining stocks arestill onaSELL signal.We got stopped out of our NEM position at 39.40. Traders should exit your gold mining positions. Let's wait for the next signal before re-entering any gold position. There is no trend at this time.


Disclaimer: ThisMarketListenerservice is free and is intended to be purely for our own education. It is not intended to be trading or investment advice. We do not publish ourmodel's back-tested results since past performance is no predictor of future gains.
 
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Robo,

Good comments from a rational investor. As a side note I currently own a nice block of Giant Industries that I am saving as a possible sacrificial lamb in case I am presented with opportunities that are irresistibly priced during a correction - my silver thread. I made the majority of my purchases in the lower $20s - but sometimes one has to ring the register, even though I hesitate to take the profit. But when the sacrifice becomes a necessity I let 'em go. Still waiting for a better environment.

Dennis
 
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Hmmmm.....been at the house today........ya'll been looking at Hurrricane Katrina.....now I wonder what oil prices are going to do Monday do to that Hurricane :shock:.....betcha it isn't going down any and if that is so...betcha the market isn't going up any......

as if I don't already have that feeling....don't miss this one eitherBirch..........

Strange.....how timely.....:^

:dude:
 
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The Technician wrote:
Hmmmm.....been at the house today........ya'll been looking at Hurrricane Katrina.....now I wonder what oil prices are going to do Monday do to that Hurricane :shock:.....betcha it isn't going down any and if that is so...betcha the market isn't going up any......
Talk about buy the rumor, sell the newswith oil down big today.
 
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Do you follow the waves:

Closing Comment 8-25-05


Monday will be an important day. The SPX looks as if it wants to complete a 5-wave pattern from the Wednesday top. The QQQQ had a better rally than the SPX, but may have to re-test today's lows.


So far, both the top and the bottom trendlines of a well-defined channel have contained prices of both indices. But now that the SPX has broken out of the up trend channel going back to May,The intermediate trend has to be considered down and the best we can probably hope for short term, is a rally tothat trend line. Making a new high before the bottoming of the 12-month cycle in October is no longer realistic.
 
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G-Man wrote:
Hard to figure the I Fund. It looked to be down around 1% today but ended up only losing 2¢. I thought it lost more than it should have yesterday so maybe it evens out. ???
Too bad we can't take advantage of these obvious needed, or anticipated, adjustments when they present themselves. It would be a nice advantage that very few would even know about (considering the tens of millions of participants). Shouldn't we be rewarded for our due diligence? :)
 
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The F-fund
Maybe a false alarm but check out AGG at www.barchart.com Its now carrying a sell opinion and the chart is showing a possible topping out. At Yahoo the P-SAR is still long.
Will probably check it out again Monday morning for long or short. :? Spaf
 
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