Market Talk

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Just a look at the markets from Ed Downs...

Looks like we will have more weakness...
100%G waiting for a big drop...
If it comes or trade the rally
Will let the market tell me which way to trade.


[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow opened the session with a decline this morning, as the index pushed steadily lower toward the bottom of the large trading range at 10,500, as seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts. However, the index bounced higher off the key 10,500 level, which has been the clear fulcrum in the charts over the last six weeks of trading. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Daily Chart shows the Dow has rounded off the top of the trading range, which implies a saucer-like formation. This type of rounded top typically implies impending weakness. Keep an eye on the bottom of the range at 10,500, as a solid break through this level could finally set the index free from the six-week trading range. Such a break could spark a nice downtrend worth about 200 to 300 points. [/font]

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]However, look for the index to rally should the Dow break through near-term resistance at 10,560. An upside push through this level could spark strength back toward recent highs at around 10,640, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. [/font]

 

[Spaf]

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Off topic......but I just could'nt resist!.......... Not with football season so near!

Subject: OU-Texas

It's OU-Texas weekend 2005 and it's about time for the game. A Texas fan goes into a sports bar. He has his dog under one arm. The dog is wearing a mini Texas jersey and has on some mini longhorns. The bartender says, "You can't bring that dog in here." The guy says, "But he's the biggest Texas fan you ever saw." The bartender tells him to come on in.

The game starts and pretty soon Texas kicks a field goal. The dog jumps up on the bar and starts high-fiving everybody. The bartender says, "If he gets that excited when Texas kicks a field goal, what does he do when they win?"

The guy says, "I don't know. He's just five."

 

[Birchtree]

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We need new home sales today to come in on the soft side- make AG happy.

We need oil to start a roll over - just a slow progressive trend down ward in price.

We need to bounce off these current support levels - I wish this was August 1982 all over again - that was the start of the secular bull market - and we were still in a recession that didn't end until November 1982. You don't know how lucky your are boy to be back, back, back in the USSR. An old Beatle song. Slowly going crazy.

 

[robo]

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Tech wrote:

I wish I could have your faith Robo.....but being what conditions currently are with the weak market showing since Aug 8th......I have little faith in any rebound....if fully expect cuts to the negative on major moves for another month or so....any breakthrough the high 1190's should send a message of the trend reversal....

Keep your eyes open....I believe that the bull trap that started the 8th of Aug...is in motion.....o

I'm in for a very short term play, if the 1210 breaks down I'm going to sit back for awhile. I'm hoping it holds..... It very well could be tested today.... The futures are down...... I can't disagree with the Bull Trap yet, but we have a chance to climb the wall of worry....We need that bounce Birchtree mentioned above.

 

[robo]

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Testing the 1210 support hope it holds, and then we can get some bounce.... Not looking good.....

 

[teknobucks]

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Birchtree wrote:

We need new home sales today to come in on the soft side- make AG happy.

We need oil to start a roll over - just a slow progressive trend down ward in price.

We need to bounce off these current support levels - I wish this was August 1982 all over again - that was the start of the secular bull market - and we were still in a recession that didn't end until November 1982. You don't know how lucky your are boy to be back, back, back in the USSR. An old Beatle song. Slowly going crazy.

dennis

looks like an over-reaction 2 wx. forecast

now if this storm becomes a 2-3 in the gom and bee lines to theoffshore rigs...then the st crude price will prolly top at 70-72 range.

either way she need to come down and sooooooon:shock:

 

[The_Technician]

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Looks like a breakdown brewing.....suspect everyone will be out by the weekend if tomorrow doesn't pull up some....seeing they don't want to be in for a bad Monday.....

If tomorrow pulls up, then I would suspect Friday be par and Monday morning they will be trading off until late afternoon....

Birch....you there man...pick yourself up off the floor man....!

Personally I think its sick the way energy productsis being played with, If Greenspud & company wants to get a better control on the economy stick, then regulate the problem...not just the interest rates.....problem is ...not enough gas production!!! So get the greenies out of the govt ears....of course there also exist the market manipulation of energy to consider so a few can make a buck.:^

maybe if we all hit the skids the greenies can grow us some food and invite us over for dinner....we are all paying for some idea or someones pocket being overflowed!!!

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Tech wrote:

Looks like a breakdown brewing.....suspect everyone will be out by the weekend if tomorrow doesn't pull up some....seeing they don't want to be in for a bad Monday.....

The 1210 support failed to hold.... I might have to stay out for awhile.... I like to play the trading range , but it seems to be down or sideways for now. Hard to make money like that...... HOW ABOUT THAT OIL!!!!!! I wish I had energy in my Portfolio....

Some comments from a Tech on todays Market......

Closing Comment

The trend lines stopped the break-out one more time and with oil surging back to its former high, There was a sharp sell-off into the close.

So far, there is nothing really abnormal about the action providing that we don't continue selling offtomorrow morning. The projections were met but not exceeded, and the A/D was not that negative at the close.


However, tomorrow's action will tell the story.

It sure would be nice to get some help from oil. down,down,down down,

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date August 24, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Fererals are fussing. Storms scare lube barges. Leaks in US lube levels.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1209.59, dn -8.0
CMF (money flow) at -0.199. dn
RSI (strength) at 39.76, dn
MACD (trend) bearish
S-STO (signal) bearish
ROC (change) bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 67.32, up +1.61

Tea Leaves: Red


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 90-10-0-0-0
S&P Stops: Alert= NA, Trail= NA.

 

[robo]

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Is it time to add some I Fund? I'm thinking about a short term play if the international markets are down again tomorrow morning.... Any thoughts on this move? The I fundwas down again today.

 

[Brak]

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Hard to figure the I Fund. It looked to be down around 1% today but ended up only losing 2¢. I thought it lost more than it should have yesterday so maybe it evens out. ???

 

[coolhand]

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robo wrote:

Is it time to add some I Fund? I'm thinking about a short term play if the international markets are down again tomorrow morning.... Any thoughts on this move? The I fundwas down again today.

The I fund was down much harder than that .02 drop in price todayindicates. That means tomorrows price will factor in today's market action (at least that's the way it seems to work). If the international market is down again tomorrow the eafe is probably going to get whacked good.

That 1200 cutoff makes it impossible to know whether one can sell at a profit or not.Going into the close today we fell off a cliff.

Yeah, MM had it right today...hitand run seems to be the play at the moment and we don't have the ability to move quick enough under those circumstances.

 

[robo]

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Coolhand and G-man,

Thanks for your comments.... I don't play the I fund to much, but I do like to play trading ranges..... I thought if it pulled back again under 16.10 a share I would spin the wheel.... I always play this at the low end of the trading rage.... It gives me the higher percentage for short term gains. It didn't help me today on the C fund.....Igot in at 1217 closed today under 1210..... Knocked the heck out of my trading range.....Thought for sure I had a nice gain early in the day....

I made some money last week in the I fund when it was 16.07. I got out with .07 a share gain at 16.14.... Should have waited one more day it would have been a very nice gain.....




Thanks again....

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

Before Todays decline.

The index has again dropped below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, a pattern that projects a decline to 1203. Putting it all together, a likely scenario is a low volume decline to 1203 before Labor Day, followed by a high volume advance after the holiday.

 

[vectorman]

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Possible bad news for tomorrow. Oil- $68

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050824/oil_prices.html?.v=25

Hope the US markets don't get too shook up. TheI fund might get hammered tomorrow, Japan and Australiastarted way down, but like other Asian markets look like they are trying to climb off their lows.

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh89951_2005-08-25_03-35-26_t205979_newsml

 

[teknobucks]

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Storm sweeps in oil record



Wednesday August 24, 3:37 PM EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices surged more than 2 percent to set a record on Wednesday, after an unexpectedly large drop in U.S. gasoline stocks added to worries that a gathering storm in the Atlantic could damage U.S. oil production platforms.

News Iran's parliament had thrown out the new president's choice for oil minister added to the market's uncertainty and drew a big question mark over oil policy in OPEC's second-biggest producer.

U.S. crude settled at $67.32 a barrel, up $1.61, shortly after hitting $67.40, the highest level in 22 years of oil futures trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil hit its previous record, $67.10, earlier this month. London Brent settled $1.36 higher at $66.01 on the International Petroleum Exchange.



U.S. data released Wednesday morning showed gasoline inventories in the world's biggest energy consumer tumbled 3.2 million barrels last week, or nearly 2 percent, with two weeks of the peak U.S. driving season to go.

"The gasoline draw is a bullish number, without doubt. The decline was much bigger than the 1.1 million barrels draw the Street was anticipating," said Jim Ritterbusch, analyst at Ritterbusch and Associates.

The market was also watching Tropical Storm Katrina gather strength over the Bahamas and take aim at Florida's southern tip and the oil-producing Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for up to a quarter of U.S. oil output.

"The peak period for hurricanes is usually from August to September, so the oil market is concerned about the risk of weather-related production losses over the coming weeks," said Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital.

U.S. crude stocks rose 1.8 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst forecasts for a fall. Heating oil supplies built, as anticipated, ahead of the winter.

$50 OIL IN 2006

Assurances by top exporter Saudi Arabia that it would pump as much oil as its customers need failed to take the sting out of a rally that has lifted oil toward the inflation-adjusted $82 a barrel of 1980, the year after the Iranian revolution.

And there is no sign of a let-up next year. Analysts polled by Reuters predicted for the first time on Wednesday that prices would breach $50 a barrel in 2006.

The perceived vulnerability of supply lines is a major factor supporting prices.

Crude oil exports from Iraq's southern Basra terminal resumed late on Tuesday, after a power cut earlier in the day.

In Ecuador, which mostly supplies crude to California, output was still down to around 80 percent of its 530,000-bpd level after attacks on oil infrastructure last week.

Traders were also watching for any disruption in Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest crude exporter, after the state pricing agency instructed the national oil company to recover costs on sales, implying consumer prices are set to rise dramatically. Previous fuel hikes have led to general strikes.

With some production in the UK North Sea and India already offline, dealers worry that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping flat out and would strain to make up any unexpected outages.


©2005 Reuters Limited.

 

[teknobucks]

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Chavez offers cheap gas to poor in U.S.

HAVANA, Cuba (Reuters) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, popular with the poor at home, offered on Tuesday to help needy Americans with cheap supplies of gasoline.

"We want to sell gasoline and heating fuel directly to poor communities in the United States," the populist leader told reporters at the end of a visit to Communist-run Cuba.

Chavez did not say how Venezuela would go about providing gasoline to poor communities. Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA owns Citgo, which has 14,000 gas stations in the United States.

The offer may sound attractive to Americans feeling pinched by soaring prices at the pump but not to the U.S. government, which sees Chavez as a left-wing troublemaker in Latin America.

Gasoline is cheaper than mineral water in oil-producing Venezuela, where consumers can fill their tanks for less than $2. Average gas prices have risen to $2.61 a gallon in the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Chavez said Venezuela could supply gasoline to Americans at half the price they now pay if intermediaries who "speculated ... and exploited consumers" were cut out.

Venezuela supplies Cuba with generously financed oil and plans to help Caribbean nations foot their oil bills.

Chavez, in Cuba to attend the graduation of Cuban-trained doctors from 28 countries, was seen off at the airport by Cuban President Fidel Castro. Washington has accused the two leaders of being a destabilizing influence in South America.

Chavez and Castro offered to give poor Americans free health care and train doctors free of charge.



http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/americas/08/23/chavez.gasoline.reut/



yo.....pat robertson now what????? LMAO
- - - - -

 

[Spaf]

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Tekno,

U better be careful. The idea may set in for the Chevrolet-Chavez and the Ford- Castro, oh yah and the Dodge-Sadai!

I'll take one of each, maybe not! Spaf

 

[teknobucks]

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storm track has shifted well rightof rigs in gulf.... http://tinyurl.com/bx94z

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a oil trader:

I'm a Seller'

``The likelihood that there will be any damage to the oil and gas industry from this storm is absolutely minimal,'' said Mike Armbruster, co-founder of Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Laguna Hills, California. ``There is no fundamental justification for this rally,'' he said. ``At $68 and above I'm a seller.''

Natural gas for September delivery fell 10.9 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $9.875 per million British thermal units on Nymex, after yesterday rising above $10 for the first time in 30 months.

Crude-oil supplies jumped 1.9 million barrels, the fourth- straight increase, to 322.9 million in the week ended Aug. 18, according to the report. Stockpiles are more than 10 percent higher than a year ago.

Distillate supplies, which include heating oil and diesel, rose by 1.43 million barrels, the 14th straight increase.





We shall see! We need a break from these oil prices!