Market Talk

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Venezuela to Buy Two Tankers, Send Fuel to Argentina
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...r=latin_america

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela will buy two oil tankers from Argentina and swap as much as $200 million in diesel fuel for farm and industrial goods, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez seeks to expand his country's influence in Latin America.

The tankers, with a capacity of 300,000 barrels, will cost $112 million, the Argentine government said in a statement distributed by the presidential palace. Argentina needs the diesel to run electricity generators amid a shortage of natural gas. Venezuela this year also said it would buy as much as $500 million in Argentine bonds to help the country meet financing needs.

Chavez, who today met with President Nestor Kirchner, is tapping into a surge oil revenue to strengthen alliances in Latin America as a confrontation between his country and the U.S. escalates, said Sergio Berensztein, a partner at Poliarquia Consultores, a political consultant and pollster. International oil prices have almost tripled since January 2002.

``Chavez is taking advantage of oil prices to make inroads in its relation with regional leaders,'' said Berensztein in an interview. ``His presence in the continent has grown significantly.''

In April, Chavez ended a 35-year military training exchange program with the U.S., saying American soldiers criticized the government in front of Venezuelan soldiers, Associated Press reported. Last week, he ended Venezuela's cooperation with U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration because he said its agents were spying on his government.

Chavez alleges that the U.S. orchestrated a military coup that ousted him from office for two days in April 2002. U.S. officials deny the accusations.

Food Payback

Chavez, speaking at the presidential palace after the announcements, said he hopes Argentina will pay the diesel oil back with farm machinery to help Venezuela with needed food production.

Venezuela this year will buy as much as $500 million in Argentine Boden bonds, which President Nestor Kirchner plans to use to cancel similar bonds that mature this year.

``We are doing this out of responsibility,'' Chavez said.

Chavez announced plans to buy the Argentine bonds on March 2, saying ``it's a small sacrifice, but we'll do it because we know the weight of Argentina's debt, which is the fault of neo- liberalism.''

Venezuela has agreements to supply oil at preferential terms to countries including Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, Cuba and the Dominican Republic.

Chavez yesterday said Venezuela may help overhaul and expand a Uruguay oil refinery.

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Venezuela will guarantee Uruguay’s oil supply 4 nxt 25 years

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Venezuela will guarantee Uruguay’s oil supply for the next 25 years
www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=45511
Mercosur Press Agency reports that Venezuela will guarantee Uruguay’s oil supply for the next 25 years as part of an energy deal that also includes providing fuel to other countries in the region.

"We are going to support our Uruguayan brothers and the government of President Tabare Vazquez; we are determined to broaden our relations and do business together," said President Chavez in Montevideo following the signing of several joint bilateral accords.
 
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From another board:
If you take your annual expenditures for gasoline and compare it as a percentage of your home value over the years, $3.00/gallon doesn't look so bad after all!
Let's start with $0.25/gallon in 1960 and a house in SF in 1960, for example
We could also go with the $0.25/gallon in 1935 and a SFO house in 1935 too!


How much was gas in 1975 (during the gas lines) and how much was your hourly rate of pay that year. I think it is relative. :^
 
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ou81200 wrote:
EAFE down 60% :(.
I fund has went up 3.65% since Aug 1st. It's due a little pull back. Also the two factors USD and stock price. I am probably going to pull back a little myself.
 
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Any brave bets on a rebound today. The bull is starting to get lonely again. Who will do the buying this afternoon - Chinese hedge funds perhaps. Honestly, from a simply contrarian standpoint this wall of worry is just what the market doctor ordered. Wish I could be 800% long, but my G friends won't lend me any stale money. The Technician says that to be in this market you have to have gonads of steel - when in reality all you have to be is stupid. Count me in up to my eyeballs.
 
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What did Forrest Gump say Birch...."Stupid is ....."..:l

Well I hope you dig up a goldmine....I just can't chance it at this point...too high of a risk for my good common sense...:i

:dude:
 
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With the oil going up this much a less aggresive mix is called for
40f 20c20s20i
Thats it for now... Hope you got some oil stocks in your regular accounts....
Skip
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Any brave bets on a rebound today. The bull is starting to get lonely again. Who will do the buying this afternoon - Chinese hedge funds perhaps. Honestly, from a simply contrarian standpoint this wall of worry is just what the market doctor ordered. Wish I could be 800% long, but my G friends won't lend me any stale money. The Technician says that to be in this market you have to have gonads of steel - when in reality all you have to be is stupid. Count me in up to my eyeballs.
:^
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date August 12, 2005, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Bad news..Bad oil. Krude threats now worry vestors.

Elsewhere: Is there such a thing as a lube bubble??


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1230.39, dn -7.42
CMF (money flow) at 0.013, dn
RSI (strength) at 52.1, dn
MACD (trend) bearish
Slow STO (signal) bullish
ROC (change) at -0.52, dn

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 66.86, up +1.06

Tea Leaves: Yellow


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 50/50
S&P Stops: Alert=1233 [broken], Trail=1221
 
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dma is this your handle on tt????



by zentrader





PM

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Member


Group: Traders-Talk User
Posts: 1215



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I am LOADING THE BOAT with August 39 QQQQ PUTS... BLACK MONDAY CRASH coming! Oil Melt-Up causing GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.

Bullz dont say Zen didnt warn you
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here is a reasonable response to it....

hasn't this guy predicted 84 of the last 3 bear markets?....
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All of you naysayers and doomsdayers will be wrong ! As Wrong as you were for the past 3 years ! There is endless liquidity, and if needed Greenspan will print more !

Bush and Greenspan will never allow anything to happen to the market.

And everyone knows that in the years ending in 5 markets only go up ! Why bet against it ? Don't you see the trend ?

Economic cycles have been abolished !

Margin 4eva ! Long 200%

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Birchtree wrote:
Honestly, from a simply contrarian standpoint this wall of worry is just what the market doctor ordered.
Contrarian? Where is the worry? The59% bulls or the 19% bears?:)

Sure rallies could happen from here but I'll say it again, a contrarian would be selling this enthusiasm. ;)

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As bad as the EAFE fund took a hit, the I fund only lost a penny. I don't understand this.
 
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Ahh, the mystery of the I fund strikes again. Give it a day or two and it will make it up to you.
 
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Tom wrote:
Sure rallies could happen from here but I'll say it again, a contrarian would be selling this enthusiasm. ;)

I think your pullback is coming soon Tom.... The question is how much?? Do we break thru 1220 to 1200, or even lower... I'll be watching the 1220 level close... Irarely go 100% long, but if we get a breakdown of the 1200's..... I'm all in as they say in poker, and I'm still in the camp my hand is pretty good going forward.... S&P 1300 is my come card! Until then I'll be having fun playing the trading range, buying Monday if the Market is down........ Hoping for 1260 in August....
 
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Robo,

A TA guy wrote on 8/7 - " If the SP can stay above 1230 - 1220 over the next 5 trading days, the odds favoring a bullish resolution that will take the SP up to 1280 - 1290, will increase dramatically. " Well we held the 1230.39 level this week. There are so many cross currents in this market - enough to make me nervous - but not panic. " If the SP closes below 1220 for two consecutive days sometime over the next 5 - 7 trading days, the odds favor a bearish resolution that will take the SP down to the 1200 zone." I'll continue to let my dollar cost averaging do the walk.

Dennis
 
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Tom,

You can paint a Zebra - but it still remains a Zebra - even though it may look different. We are having a minor disagreement over definitions and semantics. I can only describe myself the way I see myself - and that is as a contrarian bull. I can't help how many bullish advisers or bearish advisers there are or what the latest sentiment readings indicate. Emotion changes rapidly and I'm not a sentiment trader. The indicators of sentiment you follow are your indicators - not mine. I don't make decisions based on what other people may being doing or what is popular for the investing moment. I usually go my own way and fortunately most of the time I'm investing againt the grain.

However, this time the "dumb money" seems to be leading the way at 59% bullish. I'm not following the "herd", they just happen to be in tandem with my current position. Their level of enthusiasm may be mostly talk and very little walk. The Bears are starting to become worried about a market top - why should I sell when for me the top is a long way up from here? I have been reading so much negativematerial from various sources that it is enough to scare the pee wee out of Herman. I know that I am at considerable risk staying in long, but when the weak money scatters with a good clean out, I'll still be holding my positions.

I bought the stink out of those triple bottoms - and did more buying on the April lows. That was very difficult to do going against the grain - and it's difficult staying long when the news is so negative. But that is the wall of worry. A bull can live in snow, but most bears hibernate.Yesterday I sold one of my energy companies with oil at $67 - now is that a contrary moveor a smart move? When the "herd" starts to abandon their positions I'll be buying their sales and will be dollar cost averaging my TSP allocations. Nothing will change for meuntil my targets are reached. Oh there is one thing that is different - you banned my contrary indicator on TSP. You know Marhet Vane folks have been bullish since eternity. It's like waiting for Godot - who really knows what will happen - but inertia can be an expensive opportunity lost.

Dennis
 
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From CNN

"Hirsch said that an unusually strong stock market in July was also likely to hurt stocks in September and October. Since 1950, when the Dow gained at least 3.5 percent in July, it's followed by a second-half of the year low sometime between mid-September and mid-December, Hirsch said. The Dow gained 3.6 percent this past July.

The good news is that a strong July typically brings a good buying opportunity in the fall as the market makes a low, Hirsch said, as it then leads into the November through January period, which constitutes the best three months of the year. irsch said that an unusually strong stock market in July was also likely to hurt stocks in September and October. Since 1950, when the Dow gained at least 3.5 percent in July, it's followed by a second-half of the year low sometime between mid-September and mid-December, Hirsch said. The Dow gained 3.6 percent this past July.

The good news is that a strong July typically brings a good buying opportunity in the fall as the market makes a low, Hirsch said, as it then leads into the November through January period, which constitutes the best three months of the year. "
 
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If one were to say that the current bull market is a cyclical one, one would mean that it is a sustained, sizable advance that is part of what is likely to be a broad, multi- year correction of the two-decade long secular upswing that peaked early in 2000.

The first leg of 3000 Dow points only contained six shallow entry points and an investor had to be quick to get invested. There has never in market history been back to back secular bull moves. If that is starting to happen this time around, and that is my opinion, the next 3000 points up may again only present limited entry level points. Take a look at the move for sp500 in 1995 - only shallow corrections - most times we were dealing with short sideways consolidations. Those that wait run the risk of continuing to wait. Market sentiments and seasonality adjustments are not playing the expected rules. There is so much negativity floating around that if I didn't have a semblance of confidence I would be scared to do anything. That is not a sacrifice I'm willing to make - folks you just don't realize the power that can propel this market higher - back to back 400 point days would not be uncommon. Get in now and stay in for the ride. Let your dollar cost averaging buy the lows if and when the arrive. The golden rule now is to face the fears and stay invested.
 
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