Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: July 24, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: US Economy on cruise control! Vestors will be hoping next week's earnings can add to the positive sentiment. Of the 200 or so companies in the S&P 500 that have posted earnings, 72% have come in above expectations, 15% have matched estimates and 13% have come in below. However, companies are not beating estimates by a wide margin. Generally by 3.3% and that's close to the long term average of about 3.2%. Next week a host of energy companies reports will be turned in.

Elsewhere: More carts were last seen on the trails. -> http://tinyurl.com/9y2rl

Caution the unknown factors: Terrorism the T factor.

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

-> http://www.bullandbearwise.com/


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1233.69, up +5.76 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at +0.100, up +0.113
RSI (strength) at 63.2, dn -2.5
MACD (trend) at 9.01, up +1.60 and still bullish.

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 58.65, up +0.56 for the week.

Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending 07-22. Added: 20dMA


Tea leaves:

Yellow (caution) due to the T factor, and oil in worry range.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 40/60

S&P Stops: Alert= 1223, Trailing= 1211.

Oil Markers: <55= Ok, 55-60= Worry, >60= Panic.

Weekly TSP Returns: G= +.01, F= -.01, C= +.06, S= +.22, I= +.13.

 

[Birchtree]

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Yes, one has to like those trucks and trains. Waiting for the DTA to hit a new all-time high past the previous high on 3/8/05 of 3872.06. Should happen this week. Also looking for the S fund to do a 12/04 correction soon to shake the weak hands loose. The problem is it looks like a trend and trends can often ignore fundamentals and can last far longer than the fundamentals may dictate. Maybe the trap has yet to be sprung - might be waiting for some more of our hold outs to get in - chasing the pretty girl at the dance. I'll walk the wall flower home.

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7086207

 

[Birchtree]

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Now that was some good Sunday reading. We certainly have the infamous wall of worry - but last week for me was anything but dull. If need be I'll take another week of that medicine. The Fed is closer to being done and I still think the market is in the process of pre-empting their moves. Anticipation is keeping them (investors) waiting. Looking at the sp500 bullish percent index and the NYSE bullish percent index leads me to believe the trend is intact and the momentum carries higher - there is ample room for future gains. More folks are nervous and that is exactly what the market wants - no more riders please. The sp500 stocks 200 MA now at 373.00 is headed for well over 400 to 450.

Because I'm already in up to my eyeballs I have the advantage at this time because I now have a profit locked in behind me and I don't have to make a decision as to when to get in. And no DMA or Technician I'm not ready to take profits and run. Actually feeling complacent and anxiety free for the moment - nervous of course - but fear - not yet. If we are getting ready for a correction so Tom can join the fun, I'll ride the thunder - it won't be deep. I wish I could say the same for the pretty girl. She is trouble waiting to cause misery.

 

[Spaf]

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Allocations
To each his/her own, but somewhat of a conservative prospective in a cautious bull market. I'll say cautious bull because of the factors of oil and terror.

Going 100% S and or I would be a very aggressive approach. It's probably the best approach based on recent performance, but also containing the higher risk of volatility and exit delay.

Going 100% C in a bull market is a good choice using a large cap index that performs well, and has the least volatility. C would be a good choice in a cautious bull. However, it also (generally) gives a slightly lower return than some of the other funds i.e., S and I.

However, I'll take somewhat of a different approach. It may comes out about the same as 100% C. Picking the best fund would be the S fund, more volatile than the C fund, but lately a better performer. The I fund would also be a pick, 2nd to the S fund, but having a double edge blade (market and US$). The 3rd choice would be the C fund. We have a bull market with factors of oil and terror. To safeguard funds (capital preservation) a % is locked in the G fund, a % to C for the least volatile, and a % to S for performance, and a % to I for performance and diversification to other markets.

What ever your pick or variation here is wishing you good trading!

Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

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A technical analyst on one of the other sites has stated that with both the DJIA and the DTA taking out their respective June highs, with the Transports leading the way, a classic short term Dow Theory Buy Signal was generated on 7/20/05. I certainly could use another good week - and yes I may be bordering on greedy.

 

[tsptalk]

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Birchtree wrote:

A technical analyst on one of the other sites has stated that with both the DJIA and the DTA taking out their respective June highs, with the Transports leading the way, a classic short term Dow Theory Buy Signal was generated on 7/20/05. I certainly could use another good week - and yes I may be bordering on greedy.

What was it that sent the transports flying on Wednesday, an earnings report? It was an impressive move.

I noticed that the transports chart looks more like the 1994 S&P 500 chart than the current S&P chart.The last pull back in the transports came much further down than the S&P, and that's what I was looking for in the S&P to get back in. Of course it never happened as we had a "premature" bottom seemingly triggered by the 7/7 attack. Maybe I'll post that in tomorrow's comments. I'm not sure what good it will do but the comparison is uncanny.

 

[Birchtree]

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Tom,

I believe that was the day the Chinese announced their GDP of 9.5%. Some see products moving both ways - soon to have a new all-time high in the Transports.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

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Re: Carts on the trail!

If I'm reading this correctly the DJTA / $TRAN looks like it's taking a breather at 3780. The last candle stick shows both bullish and bearish. The RSI is at 71, or 1 point in the overbought range. The MACD is showing very bullish!

However with the terror incidents, where they factor in. I don't know!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

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Spaf,

Currently the DTA is showing a reading of 3780.03 - very close to the last all time high of 3872.06 on 3/8/05. Now if we could just get DMA to suck start the DJIA to fire up for a move to above 10997 and then on to the last all-time high of 11723 on 1/14/00, we would have a clear green lite. Keep a lookout for a top, darn thing could be years from now.

 

[Spaf]

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Dennis,

Ur right 3780, I made a edit. Thanks! I'm going to have to do some research on tops! Haven't seen one in such a long time! I got the bottoms and cycles down pat!

Been having some trouble with my e-mail, so I've been writing it on the notepad first. When I get ready to reply and paste. Quite a few times you have made a similar post. :hHuh!

Good flying dar rocket-man

Spaf

 

[teknobucks]

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where are all the posters?

 

[dennypup]

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Could some of y'all offer an opinion on a good place to start buying again? I've been trying to keep up with the posts and I know not everyone is in agreement, but I don't even know what to look for. It seemstheveterans are cautious but some are partially in. I'm trying to be patient but I feel like I need to have something invested, the penny isdriving me nuts! :shock:

Also, could someone tell me wherethe tracking list is? Is it posted here somewhere?

Thanks!

 

[teknobucks]

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[teknobucks]

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dennypup wrote:

Could some of y'all offer an opinion on a good place to start buying again? I've been trying to keep up with the posts and I know not everyone is in agreement, but I don't even know what to look for. It seemstheveterans are cautious but some are partially in. I'm trying to be patient but I feel like I need to have something invested, the penny isdriving me nuts! :shock:

Also, could someone tell me wherethe tracking list is? Is it posted here somewhere?

Thanks!

midweek or so this week....should be a healthy entry point (just kidding of course)

know one wants to have your fate on their hands by calling out such sir.

pssst: wed cob

 

[dennypup]

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teknobucks wrote:

know one wants to have your fate on their hands by calling out such sir.

lol! I realize that, I was just wondering what some considered a healthly pull back point and why. I'd really like to put some back in but I don't want to buy the top as y'all say!

 

[grandma]

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teknobucks wrote:

where are all the posters?

I doe'no - I did notice that myself ... thought maybe I offended some by not sharing

a few days ago.........



Dennypup: Sign up for the weekly trackers by e-mail/PM Pyriel - W_W was gracious enough to send this past week's out while he is oo touch -

 

[dennypup]

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thanks Grandma, I thought I did, I'll try again!

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date July 25, 2005, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Lube spilled on market grain! A lot of the grain had to be tossed out. Market in flat range. Could be a consolidation. Could be something else!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1229.03, dn -4.65
CMF (money flow) at 0.126, up
RSI (strength) at 59.5, dn
MACD (trend) at 8.81, dn, bullish

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 59.00, up +0.35

Tea Leaves: Yellow (caution). Oil in high worry range.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 40/60
Stops: Alert= 1223, Trailing= 1211

 

[teknobucks]

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grandma wrote:

sharing

a few days ago.........

hope that's not that patron tequilla...lmao

tekno