Market Talk

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Birchtree wrote:

This is just a correction precipitated by the hedgefund boys to try and get the "herd" folks to do some panic selling to bring the market down so they can cover with some profits. Don't think it will work though,





Birchtree,

If the 1190 support is broken do you think it might cause a small stampede in the

herd? If so, do you think the 1180's will hold? I'm trying to decide when to add

additional equities. I 'm thinking 1250 before 1150, and 1175 has lots of support... if

we even go that low... Still grazing watching Tom, Spaf,moves and reading all the

bull and bear comments on the board, Good Stufff.... Plenty to think about.....I'm

still bullish for the year... Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!! Decisions, Decisions.



Mike,

Are you holding out for the 1170's or lower?

All comments are appreciated?
 
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Robo

When the fundamentals ain't good, i.e., three of the four horsemen are loose (rates, earnings, and energy) with lube going for +-$60 a bucket. And, analysis indicators are down CMF, RSI, and the MACD. It's capital preservation time.

Look see the S&P 500 CMF indicator and you can tell the wash tub has a hole in it.

;) Spaf
 
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I'm thinking in terms of a drop down below 1150 as well before leveling out and headed back up.

Facts:

1. Oil up to $60, not yet showing in earnings of companies. That will take a month to hit the earnings reports- look for all the transports to get socked, as well as any company which uses oil in any fashion- airlines, trucking companies, plastics, etc. Oil is the lube on the economy. This price of $60 will take time to get digested.

2. Durable goods got socked. The up blip annouced this morning was simply airplane orders for Boeing. Besides that,durable goodfell by 0.2%, after being expected to rise by a point and a half. Not good.

3. The war continues to be an issue, and will continue for some time.

Next stop, below 1150.



JP
 
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I regret that I didn't get that 11:08 post in 30 minutes earlier.....I fear Monday thru Wed will be very negative....:?

Today was mostly negative.....a little dressing up at days end and the average investor won't know it.....:D

Of course the fund managers and such could wait another week for window dressing.....but that towel could be thrown in at any time......seen anything on that DMA???:%

:dude:
 
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Thanks for the comments. Looks like the 1190 support held. Hope I didn't miss the pullback. Buyers again come in and are not afraid to buy this market. Still grazing and watching next week.



I think I might just call "mad money"and see what Jimmmmmmmmmmy has to say about this pullback.
 
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I might not have to call Jimmy. Kudlow is explaining it now, ahhhhhhhhhh, clear as a bell. It's the Great China Debate!
 
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They explained it all last week!


MarketWatch

Last Update: 12:30 AM ET June 18, 2005

Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, predicted that investors will manage to push prices above the 1,229 mark on the S&P 500 and extend the rally. The Dow industrials and Nasdaq composite also are expected to retest their March highs, he said.


:oo Spaf
 
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Robo,

You are asking for the rath of the bears to include that cute Frog. This is their time to get some sun. Jimmy is saying back up the truck and load up. Kudlow is saying the Chinese are coming just like the Japanese did in the 80s. I welcome them - they will create one heck of a demand. Soon they will want to buy the Buick Division of GM. Then they will want to buy Timken, and a few drilling stocks as well as a few steel and chemical companies. This is a great time to be a capitalist.

I wouldn't dare to leave this market - where else can you get a return that has a yield attached to it. Real estate doesn't pay dividends that will be increasing over time - unless you are a land lord. Next week may be the week the Fed turns on a dime and gives us a great surprise. I'd be buying piece by piece all next week. I'm already 100% C so I'll just sit tight and be complacent and openly receive the beating if one is delivered. Otherwise, I may make some sacrifices in my private account and flip a few positions. I don't believe any index aside from the Dow has slipped below their 90 day moving averages yet. It certainly won't be a boring summer that's for sure. Frankly, we are putting in a good base for the next move to sp500 of 1250 - 1275. You are right, in my opinion.
 
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The Technician wrote:
I regret that I didn't get that 11:08 post in 30 minutes earlier.....I fear Monday thru Wed will be very negative....:?

Today was mostly negative.....a little dressing up at days end and the average investor won't know it.....:D

Of course the fund managers and such could wait another week for window dressing.....but that towel could be thrown in at any time......seen anything on that DMA???:%

:dude:
it will be a good week 2 buy then:^
 
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The Technician wrote:
Oct wasa mist of negative impulses in which the S&P dropped 4.5% in just the month itself.

The take-home point is that October ended pretty much right where it began.

Robo - I'm waiting to see where the support holds... ~1190 is the first test (holding thus far).

I don't think we'll plunge all the way back down to the yearly low, but I'd say the 1170s are likely with the 1150s also being a possibility with oil sitting at $60, earnings warnings coming, and another rate hike looming.
 
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The Technician wrote:
A simple inquisition is not being antagonistic.....maybe in your book Mike......

Tek
x
$'s.....I've been keeping up with that fact ......seems to be a trojan horse for one to comtemplate.....;)

:dude:
Sweet dreams are made of this
Who am I to disagree?
I travel the world
And the seven seas--
Everybody's looking for something.
Some of them want to use you
Some of them want to get used by you
Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused.
smile.gif
 
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off tt:

The current sell-off pattern is bullish. I wouldn't be surprised to see SPX 1219 by Tues/Wed next week. The cycles work a-b-c from here with 'a' due Tues/Wed and 'b' due around July 7th (1205?) and 'c' due near July 14 or maybe early July 15th near 1255.

The last pattern has continuation pattern written all over it. My prediction: the bears will get slaughtered in the coming weeks. Wait until after July OPEX and we may retest these lows again in late July.

I bought with both hands late this afternoon and I'll sell on the next rally (early next week) which should prove to be very strong.
 
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links and an essay from tt:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/DowLT.png

I’ve only been viewing this board for a couple of days, but I'm happy to have stumbled upon it and I am very impressed by the level and quality of analysis being presented here. I’ve seen chart analysis based on price, indicators, waves, etc. I am impressed, however, by the effort and detail imparted upon these beautiful pieces of art, rather than by the product which these presentations are intended to produce.

I’ve been in the business for over a half-century now and have had experience with all of the above mentioned tools and methodologies. I began trading and investing in stocks at the age of 14 (I guess I’ve given away my age!). My father was a broker for Whitaker & Co. and I began to take great interest in his work at that age.

After many stumbles during my first 10 to 15 years, which were mediocre at best, I’ve had what I would like to consider to be great success in the business, and, without giving the impression that I’m boasting, have been able to compound my personal wealth by 25 percent per annum fairly consistently through the trades and investments I have make in the markets over this time period. I’ve had my share of loosing years, but fortunately, most of my years trading, and investing, especially over the past 40 years, have been winning years. I have also started or co-headed nearly a dozen investment and trading related businesses during this time period.

I bring up my experience so that I can at least have an ounce of credibility in what I am trying to relay.

First, indicators, whether they be RSI, MACD, CCI, ABC, XYZ, or what have you, are very ineffective tools and will fail you terribly in the long-run (over the course of 10 years or longer, or even in less time than that at market turning points). Candlesticks have never been proven to possess some type of collective wisdom, and will do you even worse quicker. ‘Divergences’ upon which you may rely to make trading decisions will fail you in the long-run because they can continue on and well outlast the balance of your account. When a technician sees a divergence and places a trade based on the expectation that price will follow that divergence, and it doesn’t, he tends to hold the belief that the strength of the expected move will be even stronger. This creates a psychological trap which not only prevents him from relinquishing the position, but may lead him to increase it. When, as often is the case, the divergence is eradicated by a strong move in price accompanied by strong or weak (depending on the direction of the move) internals, the trader is severely underwater and will be forced to sell much lower than he intended, or cover a position at a much higher level.

Next, I must address pattern recognition methodologies such as Elliot Wave. Excuse my French, but (and I spent several years studying and applying it with some success) in reality, Elliot Wave is the most elegant piece of hogwash ever incarnated. Elliot, to his credit, did discover the fractal nature of the markets, and that trends tend to unfold in three or five wave sequences, but that is all. He merely uncovered some of the possible patterns that may play out in a market. How one presumes that he can take a set of keys and determine the combination (order) of keys that will open the next 10 doors that appear with even a 20% rate of success is beyond me. A better example would be, if you were to see a set of buildings on one block, would you surmise a guess as to what type (height, width, number of windows, etc.) of buildings would appear around the corner on the next block ahead of time? I think not, and trading with Elliot Wave is just as silly. I throw Trident and other such methodologies in this pile as they require a great deal of consistent luck to not only make you money in the long-run, but to save you from blowing your account’s balance.

Lastly, those who are relying on the movements of the planets upon which to base their trades are sadly misguided by how chance may at times enables markets, which are subjects of chaos as all things in this universe, to move in synchrony with some derivate of planetary position or movement. Forget about it, and save yourself years of frustration and money. If it wasn’t taken so seriously, it would be perhaps the most humorous form of market analysis!

To sum up, indicators, divergences, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, patterns, and other such voodoo (all of which I have tried and tested over the course of a decade earlier in my career), are the incorrect methodologies by which trading and investing should be approached. Also, there is not necessarily always a clear set of answers to which way the market may move. Sometimes, there is simply insufficient information, and saying on the sidelines until sufficient information presents itself. Those who trade based on patterns and indicators tend to have their money on the line nearly all of the time because of what their methods are suggesting to them, when in reality, the market itself has no clear direction yet. This introduces additional risk to this type of trader.

I would like to impart the following keys to trading success onto the members of this board. You can rest assured are presented to you after 53 years of investment and trading experience. These are the undisputed truths which line the road to trading and investment success, and anyone who disputes even one on the list does so only until he and / or she accepts it. In other words, time will teach that individual that this list is correct and comprehensive. The following is an ordered list of the most important factors upon which to base a trade:

1. Price
2. Breadth
3. Trend
4. Leadership
5. Sentiment
6. Volume

The following is an ordered list of the most important factors upon which to base your investments:

1. Buy Strength, Sell Weakness
2. Buy Leaders in their Sector (top 2 or 3 at most)
3. Mind Liquidity
4. Mind Seasonals and Large Timeframe Cycles

I present these here because I am concerned and disturbed by the direction in which a majority of those who are posting here appear to be headed. Like all crafts, the next trading and investing generation should be more capable and wiser than the last, not the other way around.
unsure.gif






for dma and technition: http://www.maui.net/~mauiben/june22dow2005.swf

be sure to turn up vol.:P
 
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going out on a limb here.....next week fomc will hold rates steady and markets will POP UP!;)

tekno

ok guys go easy on me now....LOL
 
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teknobucks,

Nice comments on investing!



Mike,

Thanks for your recommendations, next week should be interesting. I get Fred Goodman and Andre Gratian's daily technical reports. They both are close to recommening a sell signal, but neither one has generated one. Both tech's are also watching the 1190 support, and Fred Goodman will not sell unless it's violated, and I'm waiting for Andre's weekend comments. I hope we get some more pullback, butthe strenght of this market,the 1190 could hold. This 2% pullback is small, but if the market rallies to 1250 from 1191 that's a 5% gain. I sure hope I don't miss this one..

Still Grazing..... and hoping for some more pullback. I 'madding to my Vanguard Total Market Fund next week.. When your in Vanguard it's almost buy and hold. Only 2 moves a year, and I already made 1. When you get 2% pullbacks and your dollar cost averaging it's a sweeeeeeeet time to add to your long range portfolio. I call it my Bob fund, for Bob Brinker. I acually do some long range investing. I know people at work that are down over 5% ytdfrom too many emotional moves. Unlimited moves has hurt some investors in TSP, but I think helped more.Back to Bob. Bob Brinker recommended getting out of the market at it's peak, and gave a buy signal when the S&P was at 800. The Bob account is the leader of my accounts.. He has a great web site with lots of good books on his recommended reading list, for any new folks watching the board, check it out. I make to many emotional moves on my mad money accouts... I'm still positive for the year, but only 2.5%........ That's Adding all my funds together including my fixed income. I'm 52 and keep 30 to 40% fixed income.



The cost of my Vanguard Fund is .18 percent.What's the cost of TSP? I thought it was .5 percecnt. Is that correct? Lets see .5 percent of 800 billion annually hmmmmmmmmmmm, got a calulator handy...... Have a good day.


http://www.bobbrinker.com/
 
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