Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: June 19, 2005


Market News.

-> http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm
-> http://www.money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

Market Talk: Stocks rise, but so does crude!


Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles (weekly data):
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1216.96 up +18.85 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at 0.191 dn -0.82
RSI (strength) at 67.4 up 10.3
MACD (averages) at 8.41 up 1.33

Nymex
Closing at 58.47 up 4.93

Attachment: S&P (6mo) chart ending 06-17.

Tea leaves: Yellow (caution) signals mixed.

Yak.

Remarks: IFT 100%G
Stops: Alert(1%)=1205, Trailing(2%)=1193.
Bullish conditions pervail; smart or dumb?
Oil in alarm range (>55).

Signals mixed: Advances high. Money decreasing. Strength in midrange, nearing overbought. Averages returning bullish. Oil in high range.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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(sorry Spaf thought you were on vacation)

As you can tell the bulls are getting more bullish and the bears are getting more bearish. This normally happens at tops and bottoms - but we shall see.

Biggy out of the box will be the Leading Indicators.

Good thing it comes out prior to the deadline.

Pretty slow week for economic reports. Funny how we get a slew of economic reports during trip and quad witch weeks? Hmmm.

Retails sales data on Tuesday (normal weekly stuff)

Weds (fuel/petro report) that could be a biggy this week. (normal report)

Thurs job less claims (normal report)

Durable goods on Friday. Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders.

So the start and end of the week has an important report.

Hopefully you are on the right side of Mr Market.

Happy Investing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Dave M]

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I just voted, onebull: I say S&P 1230, ~+15.(It's just sentiment, remember.)

Dave

 

[Guest]

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I read a lot of boards.

Everyone is bullish.

I am short.

 

[Guest]

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USD has a strong bounce out of the box.

I fund looks like it is not the place to put new money into at this point.

As we know, no matter how well or bad the internationals do the USD is a strong headwind either way, i.e. the index can go up .5 or down .5 and the USD .3 move either way will wipe it out. :?

Why do they have to change the I fund back to USDs?

I posted a chart on major market performance and numero last was the U.S. (again). Two years running. You will not hear that on CNBS .

 

[Guest]

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Crude just went over 59.

US futures DOW down 22 all ready.

Anyone surprised?

 

[Guest]

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Precious metals areramping and so is crude. However, USD is also on a bounce.

I believe USD is going to lose. May go 100% I fund prior to close.



BTW: Crude was at 60 for about 5 minutes.

Thank goodness I am heavy in OIH sector.

BTW: Side note DOW futures down 38.

 

[Guest]

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Current contract on crude. They just moved the chart up to show 62.5 .

 

[Guest]

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Here is what the week has in store for us:

Looking Ahead: Week of June 20 to June 24

Monday
Many of the components of the index of leading indicators were negative in May. The factory workweek declined, new claims rose (but that is a negative for this index), vendor performance decreased, as did consumer expectations and the spread between the 10-year note and the fed funds rate. Stock prices did rise for the month.
Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for May 05: -0.3 percent
Range: -0.4 to -0.2 percent
Thursday
New jobless claims inched up 1,000 in the week ended June 11 to 333,000. The four-week moving average also increased marginally to 335,000 for the week. Thus far, the average for the two weeks in June is just a bit lower than the May average for new claims.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/18/05: 330,000 (-3,000)
Range: 320,000 to 330,000
Existing home sales jumped 4.5 percent in April to a 7.18 million-unit rate. Strong gains were registered in the South, Midwest and Northeast. Sales in the West were flat in April. As long as mortgage rates remain at low levels, housing activity could remain healthy. However, we may not see the same magnitude of growth that we have in the past.
Existing home sales Consensus Forecast for May 05: 7.20 million-unit rate
Range: 6.90 to 7.25 million-unit rate
Friday
New orders for durable goods rose 1.9 percent in April after declining in each of the three previous months. The transportation sector boosted orders in April. Aircraft orders have been healthy lately, and this could help boost orders in coming months as well.
Durable goods orders Consensus Forecast for May 05: 2 percent
Range: -0.5 to +4 percent
New single-family home sales were nearly unchanged at a 1,316,000-unit rate in April. New home sales jumped in the Northeast and rose in the West, but declined in the Midwest and the South. The strength in single-family housing starts in May suggest a potential rise in new home sales for May as well.
[align=justify]New home sales Consensus Forecast for Apr 05: 1,320,000
Range: 1,250,000 to 1,350,000-unit rate [/align]

 

[Guest]

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Note: Durable goods BA lost a 6B contract this morning.

Boeing Co. has lost a $6 billion Air Canada order for 777 and 787 jets after the members of the carrier's pilots union rejected a cost-cutting deal that would have cleared the way for the purchase.

Thedata from above stated: Aircraft orders have been healthy lately, and this could help boost orders in coming months as well.

Opps. They probably wish they could change that line now.

BA (Boeing) is a member of the DOW. The shorts are all over it on this bad news.

 

[Guest]

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WOW USD is up .7, crude is up and the precious metals are up.

It is really strange that they are all up huge.

If it was not for crude going to I fund here looks like a good move for a short time.

Remember FOMC rate high next week. I fund normally does not like that.

Normally if precious metals is up USD is down and if oil is up USD is down.

Really a disconnect here. I do not know why. That is what makes this fun.

 

[Guest]

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Oh boy.

All ready hearing "this is a healthy pull back" by the "experts". What happened to it will only go up talk all ready?

:shock:Next will be buy this dip. It never stops. What does a use car sales man do? Try to sell you the lemon of the lot - the hunk of junk taking up valuable space. What does an "expert" do? Try to keep you invested, not move your money and have you add more.

I am on margain 300% short now. :^

 

[mlk_man]

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Doesn't look like anybody is gonna make money today. TSP wise that is..........

 

[Guest]

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Performance (% Change)

 

[Dave M]

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And the lights turn green in the late going. I was resigned to a small loss today given the great week just ended, but it seems that was premature.

Spaf, we have to advance theoil lamp. <55 now isgreen, 55-60 caution, >60 red alert. I speculated onceas to whether we would all get used tohighoil and then move on. Maybe this is happening?

Dave

...Yet manage to close down a fraction, essentially unchanged.

 

[Guest]

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And the lights turn green in the late going. I was resigned to a small loss today given the great week just ended, but it seems that was premature.

Seems like your premature post was premature - that is what makes investing fun!!!

 

[Dogdaddy]

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Never mind....my post was really screwed up by the system???
Dogdaddy


]

 

[Guest]

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Crude touched 60.10.

Prices at the pump will be creeping up. Maybe a good idea to think about filling thee ole gas tank.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date June 20, Closing


Market News.

News: Stox down, Lube up! Market value lower as Krude rode through market area. One vestor said we ought to make him a full member.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1216 dn -0.86
CMF (money flow) at 0.188, dn.
RSI (strength) at 66.6, dn.
MACD (trend) at 8.82, up.
W%R (trend) at -12.1 overbought.

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 59.37 up +0.90

Tea Leaves: Yellow (caution) mixed indicators.


Yak.

Remarks: Recalibrating crude pump: click, click, click, click, click.
Safe range=<55, Caution=55-60, Panic alarm=>60.
Holding: 100%G.
Stops: Alert=1205, trailing=1193

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Ladies and Gents

A while back Teckno found some articles at pcquote.com. One of the articles/definitions concerned the Williams'%R indicator. I have copied the portion pertaining to that indicator:


Williams' %R

Williams’ %R (pronounced "percent R") is a momentum indicator that measures overbought/oversold levels. Williams’ %R was developed by Larry Williams.

The interpretation of Williams' %R is very similar to that of the Stochastic Oscillatorexcept that %R is plotted upside-down and the Stochastic Oscillator has internal smoothing.

To display the Williams’ %R indicator on an upside-down scale, it is usually plotted using negative values (e.g., -20%). For the purpose of analysis and discussion, simply ignore the negative symbols.

Readings in the range of 80 to 100% indicate that the security is oversold while readings in the 0 to 20% range suggest that it is overbought.

As with all overbought/oversold indicators, it is best to wait for the security's price to change direction before placing your trades. For example, if an overbought/oversold indicator (such as the Stochastic Oscillator or Williams' %R) is showing an overbought condition, it is wise to wait for the security's price to turn down before selling the security. (The MACD is a good indicator to monitor change in a security's price.) It is not unusual for overbought/oversold indicators to remain in an overbought/oversold condition for a long time period as the security's price continues to climb/fall. Selling simply because the security appears overbought may take you out of the security long before its price shows signs of deterioration.

An interesting phenomena of the %R indicator is its uncanny ability to anticipate a reversal in the underlying security's price. The indicator almost always forms a peak and turns down a few days before the security's price peaks and turns down. Likewise, %R usually creates a trough and turns up a few days before the security's price turns up.

I was interested in the "phenomena to anticipate a reversal"

Would anyone care to follow along on this adventure?

If so, go to http://www.stockcharts.com Select style = SharpChart, Symbol = $SPX for the S&P 500. When you get the chart up, change one of the bottom indicator windows to the Williams %R indicator, and then update the chart.

Additional information about this and other indicators can be found at http://www.incrediblecharts.com

Rgds, and Shall see! Spaf