Market Talk

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Spaf wrote:

I was a giving it a hard look see, why it was so important??
Because the shorts started to cover on the bad news which forced others to buy stocks.

It was the who was going to blink first thing. Market started to turn south and it was a chain reaction of the roaches jumping ship. Forcing the other roaches to buy stock and cover. As you can tell the market was not that short anymore because the move was really not that large.

It would of been fun if all this economic data did not come out during a quad/trip witch week. Great planning on the part of the releasers:^.

That was a very bad bit of news ahead of leading indicators on Monday.

The bond market action tells you what is going on.

Sometimes you have to look under the surface to read the tea leaves.

The estimated was lowered to 10 and it missed by a whopper.

And it is not only Philly as someone pointed out - it is the whole mid atlantic region - you know the ones that have all the ports and factories that ship to Europe - yeah that one (it is extremely important -a thing called trade):

Output at factories in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States slowed this month, a regional central bank said Thursday, the latest evidence that the U.S. economy may be headed for softer growth.

"(The numbers) were pretty weak except for the employment index which has been pr to -19 from -0.1 in May. The delivery times index fell to -13.2 in June from a barely positive reading of 0.5 in May and the employment index rose to 7.1 from 5.4 in May.

"The industrial sector isn't looking too hot," said Jason Daw, senior G-10 strategist at Merrill Lynch.
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak
Date June 16th, Closing


Market News.

News:Merchant ships arrive! Kingdom ships made port despite having to battle resistance from motors and lube.

Elsewhere: Krude was heard to be rallying future supporters. Uh Oh!


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1210.93, up +4.35
CMF (money flow) at 0.196, dn.
RSI (strength) at 64.4, up, in midrange.
MACD (trend) at 7.69, up,returning bullish?

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closing at 56.58 up, +1.01.

Tea Leaves: Yellow (caution). Money remains good. Moderate strength remains in the market. MACD possible returning bullish? Oil above 55 places it in the alarm range.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 60/40 (60G, 20C, 20S). Alert stop at 1199, trailing stop at 1187.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
 
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I got out a couple of days ago and am starting to feel stupid!! Not stupid enough to get back in but definantley Stupid.
 
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Philly fed is important.

U.S. Treasurys rebounded Thursday after a regional manufacturing barometer revealed its first negative reading in over two years.

Treasurys rebound on data surprise.

Unexpected negative result for regional factory measure.

F Fund move looking good.
 
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Spaf,

Did you catch the move in the Transports today - up over 39 points. If that keeps up there will be another Dow confirmation in less than 2 weeks. What I found interesting about the Philly Fed report besides the negativity that the Fed is hoping for, was the prices they paid for raw materials. Down now 4 months straight.
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Spaf,

Did you catch the move in the Transports today - up over 39 points. If that keeps up there will be another Dow confirmation in less than 2 weeks. What I found interesting about the Philly Fed report besides the negativity that the Fed is hoping for, was the prices they paid for raw materials. Down now 4 months straight.

Short covering on the bad Philly Report.

We were all short there. You have to match the action with the news and what happens tomorrow - options expiration. Someone blinked and got greedy and we had to buy stock to go cover.

This is just like on Tuesday when WMT went up 3% andGM went up nearly 5% on a bad retail sales report. Someone got greedy and covered forcing a chain reaction.

If you hate the hedge fund guys on the long side - you would really love them on the short side. :shock: The cover now when they are up .3 just to try to ikk out a gain to get back to even this year. This is the same grind game we played last year.

It makes trading very hard. I love it. :^
 
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I read this article on 10 June. Could this be why the market is slowing trending up this week? Any comments on this, "need to get in" by fund managers article. The market just keeps creeping up.




I’ve got to believe there are hundreds, if not thousands, of fund managers that are not nearly as invested as they want to be with only 15 trading days left in the quarter before they divulge to their clients what their portfolios are holding. My view is that this “need to get in” will lift the major averages to their March highs on a flurry of end-of-the-quarter-window-dressing buying fever and then consolidate in July and August.
 
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Normally the window dressing last for the most for two days closer to the end of the quarter.

I believe that will happen June 27-28ish.

Next week will be a fight that is for sure.

You can see the desperation of the hedge fund guys to get back to even. They are covering shorts with gains of cents instead of dimes.

This sucker is going to tank next month. IMHO.

BTW: Remember the need to get in talk the end of December???

History does repeat itself. I tend not to listen to the experts and run the other way. That is what contrarian means. Not running with the herd off the cliff.
 
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DMA,

Thanks for your comments! I hope your correct, andwe can get a nice buying opportunity soon.
 
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No flaming please!
teu42.gif
lest we get chased by Tom
sterb035.gif


We got better things to do! Rgds! ;) Spaf
 
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Good point on the window dressing by the fund managers...:^

I would give the market room until then... my data looks like it could drop anytime....but then again it has for a while, I just keep getting these unreasonable increases...goes against investment smarts........but it will happen, right after the market gets tired........

Since DMA has level II and he gets to see the daily minute by minute moves....I'm given it a break......

Things are too dicey to take unnecessay chances....there will be more gainer days later on.....getting greedy right now is against one playing the market.......;)


Good trading all....:dude:
 
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Problem: Everyone thinks we are going to have a window dressing rally.

Just like everyone thought there was goingto be a IRA/ROTH rally the first week of January.

With TSP you have to "guess'28 hours out the market will be up.

That is too big of a guess for me at this point.

I am thinking the market will ramp this morning with the reminder of the shorts squaring up in front of quad witch and a sell off at noon. Based on what I am seeing now.

:?
 
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The Technician wrote:
Since DMA has level II and he gets to see the daily minute by minute moves....I'm given it a break...... Good trading all....:dude:
What's a "level II?"
 
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DMA wrote:
I am thinking the market will ramp this morning with the reminder of the shorts squaring up in front of quad witch and a sell off at noon. Based on what I am seeing now.

:?
Tape is getting thick as glue.

She is turning. Earlier then I thought. Will not be able to post any more today here.

Need to slay a couple dragons now. Poppa needs a new bag.

Have a great weekend all!!!!!!!!:)
 
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looks like a great day for the i fund.. I missed the train :(
Does anyone know why the Dollar is falling?
Thanks
Tennisguy
 
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tennisguy wrote:
Does anyone know why the Dollar is falling?
RE: The Dollar: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7107326B%2DE8E2%2D45B9%2DBEF3%2D451B9E7BDC48%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

....................................................................................................................................

Next week looks like a lot of travel for me! I will be parking my funds in the G account temporarily. IFT 100% G. Capital preservation, being rule 1. Might have to skip a week on the Daily editions. At least they give me a credit card. Besides I need to get out of the office for a while. Talk later! :cool: Spaf
 
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