Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: June 12, 2005


Market News.

-> http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm
-> http://www.money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

Special: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050608/economy_fed_livingston.html?.v=2


Market Talk: Fundamental market conditions were mixed last week. Manufacturing profit margins indicated to be narrow with increase costs. Channel surfing is at moderate risk. Horsemen appear to becooling it, for the time being.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1198.11 dn -2.82
CMF (money flow) at 0.273 up
RSI (strength) at 57.1 dn
MACD (trend) at 7.08 dn

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closing at 53.54 dn -0.74

Attachment: S&P 500 (GSPC-3mo.) chart ending 06-10. Added: 50dMA, RSI, MACD, and notes.


Tea leaves: Yellow (caution). S&P encountering resistance. Some money (?) moving back into market. Strength in midrange, of overbought/sold. Averages at bear/bull crossover with a slant of negative divergence. Oil in worry range of 45-55.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 60/40 with paper stop at 1180 (alert semi-stop at 1192).

 

[Birchtree]

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Rome777,

Would you care to input on growth/value since I believe you are 100% S fund. Your thoughts would be appreciated. I'm currently 100% C fund and plan to ride it to $15 and perhaps beyond. My pistols are holstered for now.

Dennis

 

[Dogdaddy]

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A lot of numbers out this coming week for the Market to digest...I'm not sure all of them are going to be good......

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/10/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm#ahead

I'm Bullish for the rest of the year, but this might be a good week to retreat to G Fund and see what's in store for the next couple of weeks ? :%

 

[Birchtree]

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Fasten seatbelts liftoff coming - back to back hugh gains on Monday in 02 and 03 before tripple witching Friday. Anticipate good PPI and CPI numbers confirming Fed comment the inflation is well contained. Snort, snort.

 

[Dogdaddy]

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Birch:

I agree.......think we'll havea good Monday (I hope). I would be interested in your prediction of where the S$P will be at the COB Friday...starting the week at 1198.11. Care to make such a prediction?? I think 1180-1185, but hoping I'm wrong.

Dog

PS: From the poll, the consensus is obviously on your side..... 66% bullish, 22% bearish..that's what kinda scares me.

 

[pyriel]

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Dogdaddy wrote:

Birch:

I agree.......think we'll havea good Monday (I hope). I would be interested in your prediction of where the S$P will be at the COB Friday...starting the week at 1198.11. Care to make such a prediction?? I think 1180-1185, but hoping I'm wrong.

Dog

PS: From the poll, the consensus is obviously on your side..... 66% bullish, 22% bearish..that's what kinda scares me.

I'd say 1175 or less... 66% bull vs. 22% bearish... Isn't that what Tom had taught us that it is time to get out and be defensive? Just my .02 which is not really much... If it doesn't happen this week then maybe next week?

 

[Guest]

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This thread talk reminds me of 2000 when everyone thought the fed was done.

 

[Mike]

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We've had a trading range on the S&P for two weeks now - roughly 1190-1208.

I think we move below 1190 before we move above 1208. Where the stop point is on the pullback is anyone's guess. Mine is somewhere in the vicinity of 1170.

 

[Spaf]

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Birchtree wrote:

Rome777,

Would you care to input on growth/value since I believe you are 100% S fund. Your thoughts would be appreciated. I'm currently 100% C fund and plan to ride it to $15 and perhaps beyond. My pistols are holstered for now.

Dennis

This is a neat question?
Awaiting reply from Rome777?

In the mean time: Index families also categorize companies by valuation, as well as size. This is typically done by taking a simple valuation measure, like the price-to-book ratio, and then setting it at a cutoff level so that it divides the index into two halves of equal market capitalization. The cheap half is called the "value" index, and the expensive half is called the "growth" index. (Note that those names are euphemisms: there's no guarantee that cheap companies are really valuable, or that expensive companies will really grow.)
In ETFs iShares S&P smallcaps, the index is IJR, growth is IJT, and value is IJS. Midcaps you have IJH, IJK, IJJ. Large caps; IVV, IVW, IVE. Thus IVVwould correspond to the C-fund, and IJR to the S-fund. The performance of these funds can be compared at http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/ or individuallly analyzed at http://www.barchart.com/
Generally speaking, I'd stay with the index funds, REsmall caps.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

Fasten seatbelts liftoff coming - back to back hugh gains on Monday in 02 and 03 before tripple witching Friday. Anticipate good PPI and CPI numbers confirming Fed comment the inflation is well contained. Snort, snort.

In contrast, the price indexes for consumer goods and for foods, feeds,
and beverages increased in May, rising 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent,
respectively. Consumer goods prices were up 1.4 percent for the year ended
in May. Higher meat and vegetable prices led the price index for foods,
feeds, and beverages up for the fourth month in a row. Prices for foods,
feeds, and beverage increased 8.2 percent over the past year.


Prices for import petroleum had risen 28.2 percent over the previous four months, which led a 4.9 percent increase in import prices.

------------------------------------------------

Wanted to bring this over from another thread (above).

If the PPI and CPI started reflecting the trade balance report numbers that talk about inflation ---- lights out for stocks. :shock::shock::shock: Inflation is in check, no inflation, fed is going to stop? Hmmm. 28.2 four month gains and 8.2 year on year is NOT CONTAINED. :^

U.S. futures are up. A lot of my trader friends are going to go short at noon and short with both hands.

I hope the rally lasts one day for those in stocks.

Rolling the dice in TSP is breath taking. Roller coast afternoons lately.

Have a good day!

 

[Dave M]

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The pattern lately has been for news to be mixed -- some good, some not-so-good, some neutral. Since this has been true on a day-to-day basis, it ought to be true for the quarterly summaries coming this week, too.

So I look for dailyswings in both directions, perhaps on the same day as we saw last week: up in the morning, down in the afternoon or vice-versa. It could get wild. Yet I think that, so long as traders don't lose their heads, we will be up for the week. (That's how I voted.) A net gain of one percentwould be nice, S&P ~1210 at 400 PM Friday.

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

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Grandma,

I believe I will show up on the trackers at the end of June. I made my first post for allocation on 5/3 so it's not 2 months yet of data. I'm 100% C fund so the results should coincide closely with the C fund index. My actual results may vary some takinf into account the distribution for dollar cost averaging. Take care

 

[Birchtree]

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I'm with DaveM on the direction of the sp500 - actually looking for a breakout to anywhere above 1210 - that would be satisfactory for me. Or maybe we just stay in this channel for a few more months putting in higher lows on the way up - anyway both would be fine - but I think a breakout is coming.

 

[Guest]

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I am going with breakdown starting Tuesday.

Economic data and seasonality suggest this to me in my research.

 

[Guest]

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USD just went over 89.

 

[Guest]

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DMA wrote:

I am going with breakdown starting Tuesday.

Economic data and seasonality suggest this to me in my research.

U.S. futures just turned due south. :shock:

USD spiking above 89.

Crude falling.

Chicken 13 has meet his expiration date on the 13th. :?

 

[Guest]

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Dow futures down 23.

Keep me away from a window.

 

[The_Technician]

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Couldn't help but notice the volume on the EFA last week......the volume has been higher that it has been in 5 years and it looks like its going down!!!!

A signal something is in the works.....I wouldn't be inthe I fund right now for nothing!!!!:shock:

I am still looking for a drop in S&P to the lower 1150's to the mid to upper 1140's.....more likely around 1147 around the 15th!!! :^



:dude:

 

[Dogdaddy]

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pyriel wrote:

Dogdaddy wrote:

Birch:

I agree.......think we'll havea good Monday (I hope). I would be interested in your prediction of where the S$P will be at the COB Friday...starting the week at 1198.11. Care to make such a prediction?? I think 1180-1185, but hoping I'm wrong.

Dog

PS: From the poll, the consensus is obviously on your side..... 66% bullish, 22% bearish..that's what kinda scares me.

I'd say 1175 or less... 66% bull vs. 22% bearish... Isn't that what Tom had taught us that it is time to get out and be defensive? Just my .02 which is not really much... If it doesn't happen this week then maybe next week?

Hey Birch:

Never saw your prediction on where the S&P will end up COB Friday ? The consensus(poll) has now shifted to 30%Bullish vs. 45% Bearish.....What do you think..We'd all be interested in your prediction ???

Nick

 

[Guest]

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DMA wrote:

I am going with breakdown starting Tuesday.

Economic data and seasonality suggest this to me in my research.

If the rally can just hold to the close. She is starting to lose some steam. Like I posted earlier the shorts are going to start hoping on board here soon.

Those in F fund today :shock:. Rates are spiking.

Cross fingers for a nice up day.

Happy trading!