Market Talk

[Guest]

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Can the market close right now?

This sucker is turning, slow and steady. The shorts are starting to pick away at her.

:shock:

 

[Guest]

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The worm has turned.

Can a rally hold for one stinky day?

Can some ring up Greenspan to tell us inverted yield curves are ok this time?

Can Snow poke a stick at China about their currency?

Can we catch Osama?

Where is Captain Obvious when we need him?

 

[Guest]

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Hmm.

Capt Obvious has flown off to greener pastures.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum22/1718-4.html

The Captain and my writings were deleted.

Thanks I appreciate looking like Capt Idiotwhen I reference the abovepictureand it is not there.

 

[Guest]

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Shorts have taken hold and are dragging her.

Most of the volume is on the short side.

Can the market close early today?

G fund looks good rest of the week to me, IMHO.

 

[The_Technician]

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I'm basing this on the past performance of the funds.....I'd expect the C and Sreturns berather nill inthe near future....

Poorer/extended economics and extended long term market rise - thus virturally no runup on todays triple witching .....:?

Looking for that drop.....anytime starting tomorrow would be fine with me....

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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I was hoping if I talked about the market tanking that it would reverse for those in the stock funds.

This is going to be a bad week.

The rally that started Friday at 3pm has all ready fizzled out. Do not believe economic data this week is going to be rosy.

Drop started at noon. Just likeI thought. Bummer.

Private accounted I am short heavy. TSP just to gut it out. Bummer.

Feel trapped in TSP. Really.

 

[pyriel]

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Birchtree wrote:

Grandma,

I believe I will show up on the trackers at the end of June. I made my first post for allocation on 5/3 so it's not 2 months yet of data. I'm 100% C fund so the results should coincide closely with the C fund index. My actual results may vary some takinf into account the distribution for dollar cost averaging. Take care

Birch,

I am tracking you now. You are right. You will show up in June...

P

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date June 13th, Closing


Market News.

News:Yawn! Slow news day!

Elsewhere:Krude goes intoafternoontemper tantrum!


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1200.82 up +2.71.
CMF (money flow) at 0.299, up.
RSI (strength) at 58.6, up, in midrange.
MACD (trend) at 6.98 dn,at crossover.

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closing at 55.62 up +2.08

Tea Leaves: Yellow (caution). Money flow increasing. Moderate strength remains in the market. MACD is now questionable; bullish or bearish? Oil above 55 places it in alarm range.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 60/40. Trailing stop at 1180.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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That was called ikking out a gain.

 

[Birchtree]

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Dogdaddy,

I may have posted in DaveM account talk. My feeling is that we may see somewhere north of 1210 on the sp500 by COB Friday. Lots of folks sure are negative - just the sweet music a contrarian needs to hear. Reminds me of that song: Three Blind Mice, See How They Run.

The market did manage to close with a positive A/D line - like 9-7 maybe. Oil again was the purveyor of bad news - but when you own some energy the hurt goes away quickly. Noticed the S fund was up the most today - they should have many small and mid cap energy companies in that index. Still looking for liftoff this week.

 

[Dogdaddy]

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Dennis:

1210 is only a 10pt(.8%) rise in 4 trading days...that's not the "rocket ride" I thought you were predicting ?? Oil will continue to be a problem, and I still think we'll see the S&P down 20-30 points before it continues to trend on up...I'll jump back in when that happens. I think channel surfing will be the only way to make any money the next couple of months, with the last few months of the year bringing a rally like last year.......We'll see, won't we?

Regards...I respect your opinion

Nick

 

[Birchtree]

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Dogdaddy,

The rocket ride could start at any moment - probably depends how much noise the Fed makes regarding their rate hike plans. I still think they have paused - and if so the market will realize the benefits of such a strategy and off we go. There is so much money out there in mutual funds sitting scared in cash, money markets, and international money looking for gains. We are headed for a yield shortage and there will be only so many places left to get some of it. Stocks pay increasing dividends. Real estate is over priced and makes even me nervous. There will be no more testing of the sp500 lows.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

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Birchtree wrote:

The rocket ride could start at any moment

Dennis.... Hope you get your rocket ride!

IMHO we need to be a little cautious, because the daily and weekly charts have the market moving somewhat sideways around the S&P range of 1200.

In the last 9 trading days the daily candlesticks are full of reversals, which leads me to think the market is looking for a direction, but without any strong pointers.

The money flow indicators are very high at .290 Is this the smart and or dumb money being invested?

A rapid decline or advance in the S&P range of 10 points should show a trend.

However, oil has to stay under 55, otherwise we take the chance of a slip and fall.

 

[Mike]

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With the existing trading range going from 1190ish to around 1208 on the S&P, this is not the time to be buying in the short term. We are near the top of that trading range (unless you expect a breakout).

The more likely scenario is for the S&P to hit the resistance and fall back toward 1190. For those who think the range will hold at this level, you can try buying back in when it approaches the lower support. I continue to believe this sideways action is a precursor for a pullback below that level, so I won't even think about moving anything in until ~1170.

Remember last year's action - we kept going sideways in a steadily declining range for roughly 3 months. :shock:

 

[Guest]

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Today the economic news is behind us.

Tomorrow wow!!!!!!

MBA purchase

Business Inventories

CPI

NY Index

Industrial Production

EIA Report

Beige Book

Each and everyone a market mover lately - in ONE DAY.

WOW! Happy trading!!!!!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

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Hello,

It may be time to start recruiting for my "Lonely Hearts Club Band" very few bulls left in the pasture today. I think the DJ Utility Average put in a new high yesterday - soon to be confirmed by the DJ Industrials Average - with Transports play catch up. Why are we having such a cement shortage - too much global building. Noticed that BNP Paribas (French Bank) just bought Commercial Bancshares for a nice premium, this is their third bank purchase since 01. They must see opportunity. Still waiting for the channel breakout - lots of room now for riders. C'mon biggdog1 get on.

 

[The_Technician]

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Must be something in the water, because everybody says that inflation is contained...except myself and a few others.........Retail sales plunge

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,159493,00.html

I like this part...

"The drop in retail sales was the largest since a matching decline last June, the Commerce Department (search) said, and exceeded the 0.2 percent drop forecast by analysts. The decline was the first since last August and came on the heels of an upwardly revised 1.5 percent gain in April.":shock:

How cynic......add this to increasing property taxes and everybody in your pocket for anything....no wonder this wonder economy is going nowhere....

:dude:

 

[Dave M]

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<<...early strength fades again>>

That was Tom speaking of yesterday. Today we have no early strength, or very little. At noon we were up only two, so let us hope the late-day fade also is absent.

Two points at close would be fine with me. Two points per day times five days is ten points,very near my expectation of 1210 on Friday, but I alsoexpected more volatility.

Today'seconomic news was, of course, mixed. Maybe that is what has the market going in two ways at once.

Dave

 

[Birchtree]

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The Technician,

Bad news is actually good news as far as the Fed is concerned. They want to create harm for the benefit of the rest of us. The dollar has been strong because some heavy shorts are now bleeding and covering their positions. We may not see any more testing below sp500 of 1200. If we don't get a decisive breakout from here then we continue in the channel with higher lows. But I think investor salvation is apparent for the true believers - like this renegade contrarian bull. Sorry, I just have to act foolish and put my money where my big mouth is. But I'm cognizant that Yogi and company never rest with the be careful scenario. No pain no gain.

Dennis-permabull #2

 

[Guest]

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The Technician wrote:

Must be something in the water, because everybody says that inflation is contained...except myself and a few others.........Retail sales plunge

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,159493,00.html

I like this part...

"The drop in retail sales was the largest since a matching decline last June, the Commerce Department (search) said, and exceeded the 0.2 percent drop forecast by analysts. The decline was the first since last August and came on the heels of an upwardly revised 1.5 percent gain in April.":shock:

How cynic......add this to increasing property taxes and everybody in your pocket for anything....no wonder this wonder economy is going nowhere....

:dude:

I like how the trade balance report said crude was up 28.6 over the last four months and the PPI had a near double digit decline.

Can I get a massage next?

Hedious accounting is GREAT!