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DMA

Liked ur Pic of last week!Hope we don't have a bull trap play. Fundamentals and Technicals are not showing a trap. So here's hoping the stox continue to advance!

Rgds, and be careful! :D Spaf

Attaching ur Pic:
 
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Spaf wrote:
Mike

DMA wrote:
It appears we are a board of six or seven now.:(

The Magnificent and Disfunction Six.

The Sloppy Seven.
Are you a member of the group? It might be more then 6 or 7! With my dyslexia I have to turn my mouse around.

Do you happen to know where I put my monitor?

trink14.gif
Spaf
I'm the lone gunman. :P
 
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My personal message to DMA, The Technician, and other cautious bears... :D



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Gents,

I must admit this is great - what a way to start the day- with a nice chuckle. So can we name the friendly bull with tradition - Ferdinand. Smell the freshly made money. No snorting or stomping - just a slow progressive pace upward. Have a good day all. Regards,

Dennis
 
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Fed Minutes May Not Show Big Split on Inflation (Update1)
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee probably wasn't as split on the threat of inflation at its May 3 meeting as bond traders may think, economists said.

Minutes of the meeting, to be released today in Washington, may show that data signaling weakness in the economy had some members fretting about the impact of further interest-rate increases. The dominant view probably reflected that of Fed Governor Donald Kohn, who in an April 22 speech said rates remained below a level that would keep inflation in check. At the meeting, central bankers agreed to raise the benchmark rate a quarter point to 3 percent.

``Markets think the FOMC is divided,'' said Toshiyuki Suzuki, New York-based senior economist at UFJ Bank, Japan's fourth-largest bank. People ``will see something on the hawkish side'' in the minutes, he said.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.05 percent today, near the lowest in three months, signaling bond investors see little risk of inflation accelerating. Ten- year securities are among those more sensitive to expectations for inflation, which erodes the value of bonds' fixed payments.

Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said on May 18 that the 10-year yield may reach a half-century low of 3 percent on expectations inflation will stay contained through 2010. By contrast, most bond strategists predict the yield will rise as economic growth spurs inflation.

The median of 60 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey published May 9 is for the yield to rise to 5 percent by year-end.

`Stick With the Script'

The Fed said in its statement following the meeting that data showed the ``solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat, partly in response to the earlier increases in energy prices.'' Still, the committee saw the threat of inflation as stronger than the threat of a slowdown: It reiterated a plan to continue to raise rates at a ``measured'' pace as ``pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months.''

``The minutes are expected to stick with the script given in the press release on May 3,'' said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York. ``The minutes could throw some cold water on this bond market rally that is partly based on some slow growth stats from the regional purchasing manager surveys'' for manufacturing.

The yield gap, or spread, between two-year Treasury securities and 10-year notes yesterday reached 44 basis points, the narrowest since February 2001. Two-year notes are among the securities most sensitive to changes in the target rate. The narrowing spread suggests bond investors expect the Fed's rate increases will keep inflation contained.

`Rampant' Pessimism

Since June, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has fallen about half a percentage point, even as the Fed tripled its overnight lending target and continues to signal more increases are ahead.

Dallas Fed Bank President Richard W. Fisher said in a speech on May 10 that the committee was aware of the ``pessimism rampant in the marketplace about the pace of the economy and rumors about the return of stagflation.''

The FOMC ``did not allow itself to get frazzled,'' Fisher said. ``After looking at the data and considering the tenor of the markets, it was the considered judgment of the committee to stay the course.'' The May meeting was Fisher's first as a voting member of the FOMC.

Three days after the May 3 meeting, the Labor Department reported that employers had added 274,000 jobs to payrolls in April, 100,000 more than expected. The Labor Department also boosted its initial estimate for job growth in March and February by a combined 93,000.

Job Report

Before the employment report ``the financial press was full of articles on the prospects for a soft patch in the economy,'' said William Poole, president of the St. Louis Fed Bank, in a speech on May 11. ``The large increase in employment in April and upward revisions of employment data for February and March dispelled much of the soft-patch talk.''

Kohn said last month that ``the federal funds rate appears still to be below the level that we would expect to be consistent with the maintenance of stable inflation and full employment over the medium run. And if growth is sustained and inflation remains contained, we are likely to raise rates further at a measured pace.''

Since then economic statistics have also shown stronger retail sales and little inflation in April. Retail sales increased 1.4 percent in April, the biggest gain since September, after a rise of 0.4 percent in the prior month, the Commerce Department said on May 12.

Care Needed

At the same time, consumer prices excluding energy and food were unchanged last month, the Labor Department said on May 18. Some economists and Fed officials prefer to strip out costs for food and energy because they are volatile from month to month. It marked the first time since November 2003 that core prices failed to rise. Including energy and food, prices jumped 0.5 percent.

The government's initial first-quarter growth estimate of 3.1 percent at an annual rate is forecast to be revised by the Commerce Department on May 26 to a 3.6 percent pace, according to a Bloomberg survey of 65 economists. The revision would follow a shrinking of the trade gap in March to $55 billion, the narrowest in six months.

The Fed's Poole said policy makers must be careful not to react too strongly to ``high frequency data'' such as monthly jobs and retail sales reports because they are volatile and often revised.

Today's minutes will show a ``reaffirmation that the Fed is trying very hard to look through the short-term fluctuations,'' said Nigel Gault, director of U.S. research at Global Insight, an economic research firm in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``Growth over the year may not be as strong as they thought but the Fed's still pretty optimistic.''
 
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Hello everyone, I am semi new to the tsp talk and just wanted to say hi. I have a feeling we are going to have a down day today the S & P 500 is down 3.90 for the pre-market. I was 60% C and 40% S for the longest time now I moved to 100% G yesterday before the 12:00 deadline. Hopefully I made a smart move.
 
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Crazy Henry wrote:
Hello everyone, I am semi new to the tsp talk and just wanted to say hi. I have a feeling we are going to have a down day today the S & P 500 is down 3.90 for the pre-market. I was 60% C and 40% S for the longest time now I moved to 100% G yesterday before the 12:00 deadline. Hopefully I made a smart move.
Hi Henry -
Looks like a good move so far, and you should get your penny in the G fund today. But don't get too conservative here. Maybe a couple three days of digesting for the market imo.

Tom
 
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Thanks Tom, I plan on jumping back in here in a few days, for the last 6 days we have had 5 up days so I am kind of expecting a few down days this week. Thanks for the all the help! :^
 
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Welcome aboard. You did well to get out for today it looks like. I am waiting to put some more money in. I do not have enough in the stocks right now. I see going in around Thursday or Friday as it stands. I will be able to watch the market tell 11 today and make a move. Perhaps sooner is the time to go in. If I see a huge drop and looks like it will be for the day then it is time to go in. Luck to you.

P.S. (No attack on any person on the board.) There are some people here that have it together and others that appear to be in their own world or have their own agenda. Take all with a grain of salt. The best on this board do not appear to attack the other people. My opionion only. Do not let any attacks turn you off to the sight. This place is for learning and sharing ideas. That can and does happen when you open yourself to it. Just learn the people before you take their word for it. Translation, make us prove our selves to you. Those that know what they are doing will do it. I am learning. I am just that and a slow learner. Welcome to our sight and hope to learn from you.:D
 
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There is no room on this board for taunting ridicule....if someone doesn't get it right they don't get it right.....if they get it right they get it right.....

So let it lay....
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Gents,

I must admit this is great - what a way to start the day- with a nice chuckle. So can we name the friendly bull with tradition - Ferdinand. Smell the freshly made money. No snorting or stomping - just a slow progressive pace upward. Have a good day all. Regards,

Dennis

Ferdinand sounds good to me!

Birch.....U know once you name it, U can't kill it. The rule of the farm! ;)

............................................................................................................................

Elsewhere:

Comments about the market from various folks:

1. "If the Fed softens its tone towards inflation, I think that could be bullish for the market,"

2. "Breadth holding up on the pullback remains the key for the market to keep the uptrend intact,"

3. "Barring any dramatic change in the economic or inflation data, it looks like there's probably more upside ahead before this recent move ultimately runs out of gas,"

:cool:
 
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