Market Talk

[teknobucks]

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enough already!!

 

[teknobucks]

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comiing off a contraction if fed keeps the trend:

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.asp


http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOSP500Chart.asp

 

[teknobucks]

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WHERE IS EVERYONE?:%

one would thinkat least a few more buy and hold types would be players here....come on TSP tAlk!

 

[teknobucks]

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Technician

did u turn the volume up on that link 10 posts ago?

here u go again....

http://www.dynamicbear.com/dynamicbull/badday1.htm

Got C Fund?

tekno

 

[Rod]

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pyriel wrote:

I'm going to have to agree with you Rod. All indication seems to be pointing upward which is why I turned my attention for Monday. I went back and looked at all the Mondays fund price for c fund and it seemed that the c fund went up 11x vs. down 6x since the beginning of the year. With the rebound happening, I really like that almost 2 to 1 chance percentage of c fund going up so I will be staying 100c even for Monday. Currently 100c right now.

Pyriel

Futures are looking really healthy this morning. I believe I'll be maintaining 40C 30S and 30I. It's days like this that I wish I didn't work graves... I'll be going to bed shortly. If I was worried about my allocation I'd set my alarm clock for 1130, but I believe we'll be alright for today and possibly Monday.

God Bless:^

 

[SkyPilot]

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This market has not generated many signals that would move trend traders off their current positions. So, events and sentiment and seasonality are the drivers at this point. The waters are choppy, yet the doldrums prevail. These are very strange seas indeed.

 

[ou81200]

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Awhile back,Tom posted an interesting fact about how the maket reacts after unusually high or low job reports. Can someone post it again please.

 

[Birchtree]

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Skypilot,

Jobs look healthy this AM and previous month is revised upward, futures are strong. Several of us(maybe 4 ) are 100% C fund riders for the moment. As I look out the rocket window I can see and feel the thrusters kicking in and momentum gaining. And I ponder a question: how much gravity force can I handle before I pass out? I don't want to miss a moment of this perhaps history making ride. Wonder Woman, go get the cape out of the closet, you can catch up, there is plenty of time and we saved you a seat.

 

[Rod]

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AWESOME AWESOME JOBS REPORT!:^

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,155691,00.html

LOOK FOR THE MARKET TO ROCK-N-ROLL TODAY!:dude:

GOD BLESS

 

[Rod]

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Today is not the day to be stuck in (G)!

I hope everyone will get a nice slice of this pie.

 

[Birchtree]

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teknobucks wrote:

WHERE IS EVERYONE?:%

one would thinkat least a few more buy and hold types would be players here....come on TSP tAlk!

To answer your question they may be sitting in the warm cozy shelter waiting for the next storm to arrive. There is always another storm coming-sometimes it wll blind side you-but for the near future the sky is clear. Besides, there is only so much room on the rocket.

 

[Show-me]

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ou81200 wrote:

Awhile back,Tom posted an interesting fact about how the maket reacts after unusually high or low job reports. Can someone post it again please.

During the past three years:

• 
  
  [align=left]Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times. Its average return was minus 0.5%. Markets don’t like surprises because they create uncertainty.
  [/align]
  
  
• 
  
  [align=left]Ten days after a negative surprise of 50K jobs or more, the S&P was higher 55% of the time. Ten days after a positive surprise of 50K or more, it was lower 58% of the time.
  [/align]
  
  
• 
  
  [align=left]Ninety days after a large negative surprise, the S&P showed an average return of +5.1%. Ninety days after a large positive surprise, its average return was 1.7%.
  [/align]
  
• 
  
  [align=left]The correlation between surprises in the jobs number and 90-day returns in the S&P 500 has been -.32. This means that the more positive the surprise, the more negative the performance in the S&P and vice-versa. Given the sample size, this is significant.
  And, perhaps most important of all…
  [/align]
  
• 
  
  [align=left]If the market did cartwheels for the jobs report and closed higher by 0.5% or more, there was only a 33% chance that is was still higher 30 days later. If it fell out of bed and declined by 0.5% or more, there was a 93% chance of it being higher after 30 days.
  
  source http://www.sentimentrader.com[/align]

 

[grandma]

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pyriel wrote:

.....c fund went up 11x vs. down 6x since the beginning of the year.

Pyriel, did you notice if any those six `down Mondays' were the Mondays after the Friday job reports??

 

[teknobucks]

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http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/050505/12566.html

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/05/news/economy/yuan_revaluation/index.htm


and right after they passed those bk reform bills....u read stuff like this LOL:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GE05Dj01.html

 

[SkyPilot]

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Birchtree wrote:

Skypilot,

Jobs look healthy this AM and previous month is revised upward, futures are strong. Several of us(maybe 4 ) are 100% C fund riders for the moment. As I look out the rocket window I can see and feel the thrusters kicking in and momentum gaining. And I ponder a question: how much gravity force can I handle before I pass out? I don't want to miss a moment of this perhaps history making ride. Wonder Woman, go get the cape out of the closet, you can catch up, there is plenty of time and we saved you a seat.

Birchtree, don't kick in the afterburners just yet. It feels like a gravity well is underneath the ship. In the words of a famous Star Fleet engineer, "Captain, I'm given it all I got, andthe shipcan't take much more"

 

[teknobucks]

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[The_Technician]

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No Tek....got no C fun today....

I'm at home today....doing some yard work and playing with the horses....I see the market is iffy....

U guys are brave!!!

The Technician

 

[Rod]

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Rod wrote:

Today is not the day to be stuck in (G)!

I hope everyone will get a nice slice of this pie.

Well, I guess today was NOT a bad day to be in (G)!

What happened??? The jobs report looked promising for the market early on.

 

[pyriel]

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grandma wrote:

pyriel wrote:

.....c fund went up 11x vs. down 6x since the beginning of the year.

Pyriel, did you notice if any those six `down Mondays' were the Mondays after the Friday job reports??

Grandma, Here is the fund statistics for 2005. It includes:

c/s/i up or down market for all Mondays in 2005

c/s/i up or down market for all Fridays in 2005

c/s/i up or down market on Friday job reports were released

c/s/i up or down market on Monday following the release of job reports the previous Firday

I really don't know if this helps but the fund statistics supports why the c fund went down today (Friday job report was released).

Pyriel

 

[Guest]

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teknobucks wrote:

Tek, remember Kermit says to "Never count your tadpoles until they hatch."