Market Talk

[ou81200]

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FWIW---

Looks like the asian market is shaping up well. I hope this a prelude to tomorows market.

 

[tsptalk]

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The tech heavy Asian markets should like what Texas Instruments said after the close. The semi's really needed something positive.

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

The semi's really needed something positive.

The semi's :?! What about us ? Got any optimism lounging around U don't need? Could use a round of that

!

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market Weather, Tea Leaves & Yak April 18, 2005 Closing


Market weather.

Weather: Partly cloudy, Stocks mixed after seasaw trading, DOW KO by 3M.


Charts, and tea leaves.

Charts: S&P ended 1145.98, up +3.36
CMF (money flow) ended at -0.249, and falling
RSI (strength) (50=mid rg) ended at 33.0, and rising
MACD (trend) was at -9.08, & more bearish

Tea leaves: Leaves holding.....red. Need optimism to change color.

Yak.

Remarks: Tenitive transfer to 50/50, will ck AM for fold or hold.

 

[grandma]

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Spaf wrote:

Termanologywe have various losses:

Paper loss......what Learning was speaking about.
Value loss...... what Tom points out.
Share loss..... what Tom points out with funkey funds.
Sleep loss...... what happens when you invest 100 %
Dollar loss...... when you buy gasoline.
Hair loss......... when market declines.

Please feel free to comment or add any other pertinent market type losses!

Rgds!

Spaf

Sounds good- unless you want to add `weight loss' .except what I am doing is gaining, - eating, eating & eating !!!!

W_W: - there must be an appropriate emoticon for this malady - related to Spaf's terminology above !!.....

 

[Spaf]

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grandma wrote:

Sounds good- unless you want to add `weight loss'.

OK grandma! Gotcha covered!

Weight loss......what funds do in a bear market.

PS: Did U notice todays market fluctuation? The S&P candlestick. It was a bullish pattern with a gain at closing. Interesting. Is this a "head fake" or did we get a slight bounce off the bottom?

Will share my strategy.

Holding: 60/40
If a cycle is detected (a gap up in AM, or bullish reversal) go 50/50.
Otherwise cancel and wait for 3 bullish bar patterns.

Have a transfer prepared daily, based on bar patterns. If bearish stop. Go fishing!

Dats the strategy!

Rgds!

Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

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Got some confidence reinstated in the market yesterday...looking for some more coming today.....maybe we will get back to that1180 range soon on the S&P....yesterday was reassuring...



The Technician:dude:

 

[mbehr55]

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I'm just starting to learn candlesticks. Hope you'll tell us more.

 

[Guest]

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grandma wrote:

W_W: - there must be an appropriate emoticon for this malady - related to Spaf's terminologyabove !!.....

The market is difficult enough to understand, add all the individuals' different styles of communicating and regional differences > I don'twant to contribute to Spaf's story-like posts, analogies, yaks and weather comparisons. Nor would I want to take away Spaf's fun in doing so!

 

[Spaf]

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S&P
Monday market closed at 1145.98
Tuesday opening at1147.07 :}

Love dem gaps!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[vectorman]

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Do I spy a nice candlestickon yesterdays DJIA chart. I sure hope so.It certainly would be agood sign of a bottom. But 10,000 is a big psychological level for the DJIA market. I'll look for it to get tested at least once more if not afew times if we are to recover from this downslide.

 

[Spaf]

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vectorman wrote:

Do I spy a nice candlestickon yesterdays DJIA chart. I sure hope so.It certainly would be agood sign of a bottom. But 10,000 is a big psychological level for the DJIA market. I'll look for it to get tested at least once more if not afew times if we are to recover from this downslide.

Could be! But, in consideration of Tom's comments yesterday. The Dow got creamed by 3M. So it's chart was not a good representation (ya/na). The S&P, I think represents more companies and it's chart for yesterday, IMHO, was fairly accurate for the market. However, I don't feel we are playing market value as much as we are playing market pessimism.

Yesterdays S&P candlestick showed a bullish pattern. Plus, today we open with a up gap, andRSI (strength) was increasing for yesterday. All factors / indicators are not positive, but enough IMHO to justify a 10% increase in stocks. If other indicators go positive, I might increase more, but only in 10-20 percent increments. I don't want my funds assaulted by the horsemen or the sentiment they leave behind.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market Weather, Tea Leaves & Yak April 19, 2005 Closing


Market weather.

Weather: HA! A clear day with solid green fields. Inflation reported as lower than expected: expected 0.3% got 0.1% for March. Lube was up 1.92 to $52.29 a bucket. Expect energy horseman to be No. 1 market culprit.


Charts, and tea leaves.

Charts: S&P ended at 1152.79 up 6.80
CMF (money flow) ended at -0.257 curving horizontal
RSI (strength) [50=mid rg] ended at 37.5 rising
MACD (trend) was at -9.69 and more bearish

Tea leaves: Caution. Leaves mainly red with green spots.

Yak.

Remarks: Holding 50/50.

 

[Spaf]

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Spaf wrote:

The Kingdom of TSP

April 19, 2005

Tea leaves: Caution. Leaves mainly red with green spots.

Addendum

More green spots showning up on the tea leaves!

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

 

[The_Technician]

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The action in the market is bothering me to the extent that I went and looked at what could happen here real soon....

If it goes up, it has a real good chance that it will be weak...I now don't believe 1180 in the S&P is obtainable....the lack of strength in the market is showing this week....

If it goes down, and I'm bearish now.....we could be hitting 1100 in the S&P 500 before end of May. Since the markets funds are in sync, I looked at the F fund as a possibility....it too looks weak......it seems every fund except the G is looking like we are going to take a slide.....(thanks to inflation, oil prices...etc.) Remarks on the economy market wise also reiterate the dire circumstances weekly....and they are getting more attention......

The Bearish route to 1100, takes anyone who is in the S&P500 at 1180 down 6-7%. Right at the moment, your're at 4% or so down......I would get concerned and it would be worth leaving the chips where they lie....and later reinvest to have a gain at the current levels......I guess this is the reason why I have been so reluctant to stay in the market for the last week.......

considering this weeks action, May looks bad in my view.....you more than likely have less than two weeks to make a decision.:?

Of course, I could be wrong.....I only wish I could be bullish.....:end::#

Good Luck,

The Technician

 

[learning]

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I am afraid that there is a bear out there. I intend to sit in G fund tell I am sure it is safe to go in the market. I hate this. Though, it is how I see it for now. I may regret this later. I am in capital preservation mode.

I believe we have a nuisance bear out there and until someone gets it, safe harbor for me.

 

[Guest]

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learning wrote:

I am afraid that there is a bear out there. I believe we have a nuisance bear out there and until someone gets it, safe harbor for me.

And if you didn''t see that bear, here are a few more. And if you don't want to forget that they are there, just riight-click them and save them as a reminder if you need to.

 

[cowboy]

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LOL!!Well at least all them there bears are healthy!!! I may have to go hunt lunch! Just going to have to cowboy up and check them there bears out. Make sure there ain't any collars on them before I poach me a few. Giddy-up Silver!! Might have to leave one or two though he might be extinct or protected. Seems like everyone is hanging there heads like they were just at the Alamo. All that spilt milk must be attractin the furry buggers.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market Weather, Tea Leaves & Yak April 20, 2005 Closing


Market weather.

Weather: Inflation reported as lower than expected yesterday, now reported as higher today with consumer prices rising to 0.6% in March. What gives with these confliction reports? Market was going up on tame inflation, now going down on inflamed inflation. Gads! So, the weather returns to foggy and overcast, with the Horsemen in the fields, again. Is this the story?


Charts, and tea leaves.

Charts: S&P ended at 1137.50 dn 15.28, ouch!
CMF (money flow) ended at -0.213
RSI (strength) [50=mid rg] ended at 32.2 and falling
MACD (trend) was at -11.27 bearish and falling.

Tea leaves: The green spots on the red tea leaves could have been mildew!

Yak.

Remarks: Holding 50/50.

Rgds! Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

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Hey ya'll watch out...

We mayhave the carrot out before the horse this morning....

I think its a good time to let the market settle a bit, its kinda like waiting for the sharks to give up waiting for something to jump in the water....

The Technician