-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily
Market Weather, Tea Leaves & Yak April 15, 2005 Closing
Market weather.
Weather: Worry, worry, woes. All about the horsemen (rates, earnings, energy and inflation). Despondent sentiment and fears were almost an epidemic. Bad news received attention, and good news was passed aside. The good news was that energy is now somewhat stable, rates are ok, growth is steady, and folks are still buying. Lube closed down $1.08 to $50.05. As a defense see the drug sector RE: [$DRG].
Charts, and tea leaves.
Charts: S&P ended 1143.43 dn -18.62
P-SAR indicated 4th red short
CMF money flow ended at -0.227, more negative.
RSI strength (50=mid rg) ended at 30.7 and falling.
MACD moving averages were -7.48, falling bearish.
Tea leaves: Leaves all turning.....red.
Yak.
Remarks: Gaps indicate that a trend is very strong.Market had a gap from yesterdays S&P closing (1162.06) and todays opening at (1160.12). Well at least we are no longer stuck in a trading range any more. However the breakout was down. I guess that the bottom of the bucket was rusted out.
Rgds.
Spaf
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily
Market Weather, Tea Leaves & Yak April 15, 2005 Closing
Market weather.
Weather: Worry, worry, woes. All about the horsemen (rates, earnings, energy and inflation). Despondent sentiment and fears were almost an epidemic. Bad news received attention, and good news was passed aside. The good news was that energy is now somewhat stable, rates are ok, growth is steady, and folks are still buying. Lube closed down $1.08 to $50.05. As a defense see the drug sector RE: [$DRG].
Charts, and tea leaves.
Charts: S&P ended 1143.43 dn -18.62
P-SAR indicated 4th red short
CMF money flow ended at -0.227, more negative.
RSI strength (50=mid rg) ended at 30.7 and falling.
MACD moving averages were -7.48, falling bearish.
Tea leaves: Leaves all turning.....red.
Yak.
Remarks: Gaps indicate that a trend is very strong.Market had a gap from yesterdays S&P closing (1162.06) and todays opening at (1160.12). Well at least we are no longer stuck in a trading range any more. However the breakout was down. I guess that the bottom of the bucket was rusted out.
Rgds.
Spafgrade1_step1
New member
imported post
I've been in the G-Fund since Jan 1 100%, and was afraid I'd missed a huge rally. I went 20% C-Fund effective at end of Friday. As you can imagine, I was happy to see the market sell off at the end of the day. Since I only put 20% in Friday, I guess that means I'm 80% thinking we won't be having a bonified rally (other than a technical bounce) very soon. Strong support has broken, but we'll see.
With the TSP, I approach it from the 'weekly' charts over daily charts since you can't jump in and out intraday.
On a side note, I bought some PFE with my non-retirement account at $26.90. It looks like PFE and the drug sector may be breaking out.
I've been in the G-Fund since Jan 1 100%, and was afraid I'd missed a huge rally. I went 20% C-Fund effective at end of Friday. As you can imagine, I was happy to see the market sell off at the end of the day. Since I only put 20% in Friday, I guess that means I'm 80% thinking we won't be having a bonified rally (other than a technical bounce) very soon. Strong support has broken, but we'll see.
With the TSP, I approach it from the 'weekly' charts over daily charts since you can't jump in and out intraday.
On a side note, I bought some PFE with my non-retirement account at $26.90. It looks like PFE and the drug sector may be breaking out.
teknobucks
Active member
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
GOOD NEWS!!!
GE posts 25% quarterly profit growth
Full-year forecast updated; to accelerate stock buybacks
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:31 AM ET April 15, 2005
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- General Electric Co. reported Friday a 25% increase in first-quarter profit, topping the industrial bellwether's own projection as well as analysts' forecasts.
GE (GE: news, chart, profile) said first-quarter earnings grew to $4.04 billion, or 38 cents a share, with revenue climbing 19% from the prior year to $39.8 billion.
"Our businesses and our end-use markets are seeing continued strong growth," said Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt in a statement.
The quarterly earnings were above the high end of management's recent update and topped Thomson First Call-compiled analyst estimates of 37 cents a share. In addition, GE's revenue topped analyst expectations of $38 billion.
Nine of its 11 businesses had double-digit earnings growth, GE said, singling out the performances turned in by the health-care, NBC Universal and infrastructure divisions.
GE also said earnings per share for 2005 should range between $1.78 and $1.83, the high end of its original target range and implying growth of 12% to 15% on a year-over-year basis.
The Dow Jones Industrials Average component also will accelerate its $15 billion share-buyback plan, and said the financial-services businesses will increase their dividend to GE from 10% to 40% of their earnings in the second quarter.
GE indicated it was able to pass on commodity-price increases to customers, saying it's taken "substantial pricing actions to offset the pressures."
Total orders for the quarter were up 16% over last year, the company said.
GE's shares fell 14 cents to $35.50 on Thursday.
GOOD NEWS!!!
GE posts 25% quarterly profit growth
Full-year forecast updated; to accelerate stock buybacks
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:31 AM ET April 15, 2005
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- General Electric Co. reported Friday a 25% increase in first-quarter profit, topping the industrial bellwether's own projection as well as analysts' forecasts.
GE (GE: news, chart, profile) said first-quarter earnings grew to $4.04 billion, or 38 cents a share, with revenue climbing 19% from the prior year to $39.8 billion.
"Our businesses and our end-use markets are seeing continued strong growth," said Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt in a statement.
The quarterly earnings were above the high end of management's recent update and topped Thomson First Call-compiled analyst estimates of 37 cents a share. In addition, GE's revenue topped analyst expectations of $38 billion.
Nine of its 11 businesses had double-digit earnings growth, GE said, singling out the performances turned in by the health-care, NBC Universal and infrastructure divisions.
GE also said earnings per share for 2005 should range between $1.78 and $1.83, the high end of its original target range and implying growth of 12% to 15% on a year-over-year basis.
The Dow Jones Industrials Average component also will accelerate its $15 billion share-buyback plan, and said the financial-services businesses will increase their dividend to GE from 10% to 40% of their earnings in the second quarter.
GE indicated it was able to pass on commodity-price increases to customers, saying it's taken "substantial pricing actions to offset the pressures."
Total orders for the quarter were up 16% over last year, the company said.
GE's shares fell 14 cents to $35.50 on Thursday.
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
Dow is down 300 points in 3 days. Black Monday coming? :shock:
or is now is the time to look to get long??? The market doesn't crash when everyone is short. does it???
Dow is down 300 points in 3 days. Black Monday coming? :shock:
or is now is the time to look to get long??? The market doesn't crash when everyone is short. does it???
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
China's Gaming the Market
by: bigenergybull 04/14/05 04:36 pm
Msg: 87415 of 87469
China is gaming the market, running down inventories and storage, and not importing commodities as fast, in order to create the illusion of a slowdown. Its worked for them, the market's bought it. Record amounts of OPEC crude are now hitting China's shores, according to shipping reports, and China is taking delivery of 30,000 pounds of copper by exercizing futures contracts...but demand is officially slowing. Did people think China was not going to notice that it can move the futures markets more than Saudi Arabia with its "official" statements? Do people think they aren't going to take advantage of it, in an environment where everyone is waiting on tip-toes, and with weak stomachs, for the FIRST sign of Chinese slowdown? Maybe China can keep the illusion up during the next month's "official" reports, but I doubt they can for two more months. Singapore refining margins have strengthened all March, after being weaker in Febuary. Singapore refining margins correlate with Chinese oil demand like a glove. The death of Chinese demand has been greatly exaggerated. Why do you think Saudi Arabia is insisting they have to increase production another 500,000 bbls a day in May?
Watch what China does, not what China says.
China's Gaming the Market
by: bigenergybull 04/14/05 04:36 pm
Msg: 87415 of 87469
China is gaming the market, running down inventories and storage, and not importing commodities as fast, in order to create the illusion of a slowdown. Its worked for them, the market's bought it. Record amounts of OPEC crude are now hitting China's shores, according to shipping reports, and China is taking delivery of 30,000 pounds of copper by exercizing futures contracts...but demand is officially slowing. Did people think China was not going to notice that it can move the futures markets more than Saudi Arabia with its "official" statements? Do people think they aren't going to take advantage of it, in an environment where everyone is waiting on tip-toes, and with weak stomachs, for the FIRST sign of Chinese slowdown? Maybe China can keep the illusion up during the next month's "official" reports, but I doubt they can for two more months. Singapore refining margins have strengthened all March, after being weaker in Febuary. Singapore refining margins correlate with Chinese oil demand like a glove. The death of Chinese demand has been greatly exaggerated. Why do you think Saudi Arabia is insisting they have to increase production another 500,000 bbls a day in May?
Watch what China does, not what China says.
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
Rod wrote:
April is historically supposed to be one of the best months for stocks. Can you imagine what would have happened otherwise?
tekno
Rod wrote:
Thank God!LOVE THE GREENBUCKS PIC!!!:^
Maybe GE will give the market a much needed boostfor Monday???
Or will it be "old news" by then...:zz
God Bles:^
April is historically supposed to be one of the best months for stocks. Can you imagine what would have happened otherwise?
tekno
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
that's what my wife said...LOL
here is a good link for last weak:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1125974
that's what my wife said...LOL
here is a good link for last weak:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1125974
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
this guy predicts a crash every year...hope he is wrong as usual:
* after all remember every year ending with 5 is usually up.....????
Joe Granville Predicts 2005 Dow Crash
By Ari Levy
Feb. 2005 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Granville, who accurately forecast in 2000 that U.S. stocks' bull market would end, is at it again. He expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to suffer its biggest annual loss this year since the Great Depression.
"We're in the critical portion of a coming collapse and the market's screaming to get out,'' said Granville in an interview from Kansas City, Missouri. ``Everyone's bullish. There's going to be a tremendous surprise and it's going to be to the downside.''
The 81-year-old analyst expects the Dow average to retreat to at least 7400 by year-end. The forecast amounts to a plunge of 31 percent. The last year in which the benchmark fell that much was 1937, when it lost 33 percent.
As a technical analyst, Granville predicts the market's direction by using criteria such as trading and price patterns, rather than earnings and economic growth. He started developing his stock market theory at what was
then E.F. Hutton & Co. from 1957 to 1963.
Granville's main indicator is called on-balance volume, or OBV. It gauges a stock's momentum. If a stock rises, the day's volume will be added to a cumulative OBV figure. If the share price falls, the total will be subtracted. Granville applies this analysis to all 30 stocks in the Dow each day.
"Volumes are pointing to declines based on what I've learned,'' he said.
The Dow average has dropped 1.8 percent this year to 10,593.10, led by Merck & Co.'s 12 percent slump. Granville predicted that the benchmark would tumble 12 percent in the first quarter, to 9500.
Granville also follows charts that track the daily number of advancing and declining stocks, the number of stocks reaching 52- week highs and lows, and investor sentiment. He compiles the measures into what he call his "Net Field Trend Indicator,'' used to predict the market's direction.
In his Jan. 20 newsletter, he wrote that his indicator had retreated to its level on Oct. 21, 1929, eight days before the Dow's two-day, 24 percent plunge. "The Dow is technically on its last legs,'' he wrote.
On March 11, 2000, the day after the Nasdaq climbed to a record 5048.62, Granville wrote that investors in technology stocks "will soon be burned.'' The index plunged 78 percent before bottoming on Oct. 9, 2002.
In 1976, in his book "Granville's New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit,'' he said a bear market would occur from 1977-1978. The Dow plunged 26 percent from the beginning of 1977 through February 1978 after a two-year surge.
"He's very well respected as a market technician, but the bottom line is the bottom line,'' said Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Digest. For anyone who followed his advice during the past 20 years, "Would you be better off than putting your money in an index fund? The answer is no.''
Granville's record as a market timer is better for the five years ended in December, according to Hulbert's data. Investors using his recommendations to buy and sell a fund mirroring the Wilshire 5000 Index would have produced a 5 percent annualized return. Investors who bought and held the index fund for those five years would have lost on average 1.4 percent a year.
Granville is more bearish than strategists at investment banks, who focus more on earnings. They expect the S&P 500 to climb 3.1 percent to 1250 in 2005, based on the median estimate in a survey of 14 analysts by Bloomberg.
In his view, firms on Wall Street "seldom get it right.'' Charts show "the market will go up on falling earnings and down on rising earnings,'' Granville wrote on
Jan. 27. This "makes one wonder about the level of Wall Street intelligence.''
this guy predicts a crash every year...hope he is wrong as usual:
* after all remember every year ending with 5 is usually up.....????
Joe Granville Predicts 2005 Dow Crash
By Ari Levy
Feb. 2005 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Granville, who accurately forecast in 2000 that U.S. stocks' bull market would end, is at it again. He expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to suffer its biggest annual loss this year since the Great Depression.
"We're in the critical portion of a coming collapse and the market's screaming to get out,'' said Granville in an interview from Kansas City, Missouri. ``Everyone's bullish. There's going to be a tremendous surprise and it's going to be to the downside.''
The 81-year-old analyst expects the Dow average to retreat to at least 7400 by year-end. The forecast amounts to a plunge of 31 percent. The last year in which the benchmark fell that much was 1937, when it lost 33 percent.
As a technical analyst, Granville predicts the market's direction by using criteria such as trading and price patterns, rather than earnings and economic growth. He started developing his stock market theory at what was
then E.F. Hutton & Co. from 1957 to 1963.
Granville's main indicator is called on-balance volume, or OBV. It gauges a stock's momentum. If a stock rises, the day's volume will be added to a cumulative OBV figure. If the share price falls, the total will be subtracted. Granville applies this analysis to all 30 stocks in the Dow each day.
"Volumes are pointing to declines based on what I've learned,'' he said.
The Dow average has dropped 1.8 percent this year to 10,593.10, led by Merck & Co.'s 12 percent slump. Granville predicted that the benchmark would tumble 12 percent in the first quarter, to 9500.
Granville also follows charts that track the daily number of advancing and declining stocks, the number of stocks reaching 52- week highs and lows, and investor sentiment. He compiles the measures into what he call his "Net Field Trend Indicator,'' used to predict the market's direction.
In his Jan. 20 newsletter, he wrote that his indicator had retreated to its level on Oct. 21, 1929, eight days before the Dow's two-day, 24 percent plunge. "The Dow is technically on its last legs,'' he wrote.
On March 11, 2000, the day after the Nasdaq climbed to a record 5048.62, Granville wrote that investors in technology stocks "will soon be burned.'' The index plunged 78 percent before bottoming on Oct. 9, 2002.
In 1976, in his book "Granville's New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit,'' he said a bear market would occur from 1977-1978. The Dow plunged 26 percent from the beginning of 1977 through February 1978 after a two-year surge.
"He's very well respected as a market technician, but the bottom line is the bottom line,'' said Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Digest. For anyone who followed his advice during the past 20 years, "Would you be better off than putting your money in an index fund? The answer is no.''
Granville's record as a market timer is better for the five years ended in December, according to Hulbert's data. Investors using his recommendations to buy and sell a fund mirroring the Wilshire 5000 Index would have produced a 5 percent annualized return. Investors who bought and held the index fund for those five years would have lost on average 1.4 percent a year.
Granville is more bearish than strategists at investment banks, who focus more on earnings. They expect the S&P 500 to climb 3.1 percent to 1250 in 2005, based on the median estimate in a survey of 14 analysts by Bloomberg.
In his view, firms on Wall Street "seldom get it right.'' Charts show "the market will go up on falling earnings and down on rising earnings,'' Granville wrote on
Jan. 27. This "makes one wonder about the level of Wall Street intelligence.''
imported post
The Mystique of "5"Scoop . . .
(Analysis) Stock market performance since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average INDU in 1897 reveals some startling and very optimistic statistics relating to the fifth year within every decade.
http://www.investing-news.com/artman/publish/article_167.shtml
-rep
The Mystique of "5"Scoop . . .
(Analysis) Stock market performance since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average INDU in 1897 reveals some startling and very optimistic statistics relating to the fifth year within every decade.
http://www.investing-news.com/artman/publish/article_167.shtml
-rep
