Market Talk

[teknobucks]

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1930's all over again??

http://djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgDecades&decade=1930

vs.

http://tinyurl.com/49qow

:^:^:^:^:^:^:^

 

[teknobucks]

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high volume day for the year, and green at that!!!!

not goodfor those in shorts......LOL

SQUUUEEEEEEZZZEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

tekno

 

[Spaf]

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teknobucks wrote:

high volume day for the year, and green at that!!!!

 

[teknobucks]

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Time for some patron!

wife just unlocked the liquor cabinet....hehehe

 

[teknobucks]

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Insider selling appears more bearish than it really is
Tuesday April 12, 12:01 am ET
By Mark Hulbert

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Humphrey Neill, the father of contrarian analysis, recommended that we be suspicious of beliefs that are widely held or taken on blind faith to be true, since those are the very ones least likely to have been subjected to a reality check.
A good illustration of this is the current conviction that, because corporate insiders are selling shares of their firms' stock at above-average rates, the stock market should soon tank.

And insiders certainly are selling a lot more of their firms' stock than they are buying.

According to Vickers Weekly Insider Report, which collects and analyzes weekly insider data as reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission, corporate insiders over the past eight weeks have sold on the open market $3.90 worth of their stock for every $1 that they have purchased.

Though this is down from the sell-to-buy ratio in excess of 6:1 seen around the turn of the year, it still is significantly higher than the historical average sell-to-buy ratio of around 2.5:1.

Not surprisingly, therefore, almost all of the advisers I monitor who base their market timing on insiders' behavior have been largely out of stocks for some time now.

But there are at least two major problems with that conclusion, according to research conducted by University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun. The first is that not all insider selling is created equal.

The most bearish kind of insider selling, according to Seyhun, is that which occurs when their stocks are declining. It's very bad news indeed when insiders are eager to sell into a falling market.

But that is relatively rare. The more common pattern is for insiders to sell their stocks when the market is rising, and pull back when the market is declining. And that appears to be precisely what we have witnessed this year.

As Vickers noted Monday night in the latest issue of their newsletter, "Insider trading activity this week shows a continuing sensitivity to overall share prices. Since early march, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) has dropped over 500 points. The ratio of insider selling [to insider buying] has fallen as well." Thus, even though the current ratio is above the 2.5:1 level that Vickers normally considers to be bearish, Vickers concludes that the current "scenario appears to offer investors the opportunity to add to their positions as market declines drag down individual stock prices from month to month."

The second problem with the bearish groupthink about insider selling, according to Seyhun, is that it fails to take into account the impact that options have had on insider selling patterns in recent years. The net effect has been to reduce dramatically the comparability of insider selling patterns of previous decades.

That's because the ratio of insider selling to insider buying focuses on open-market transactions. Shares purchased pursuant to exercising an option do not qualify. So as options have played an increasingly large role in executive compensation over the last decade, the sell-to-buy ratio has become more and more skewed.

Another factor that reduces historical comparability: Prior to the early 1990s, insiders were required to hold for at least six months any shares they acquired through option exercises. Since then, of course, insiders have been able to sell immediately any such shares -- reducing the bearish significance that such sales otherwise would have.

Taking these factors into account, Seyhun estimates that the normal level of the insider sell-to-buy ratio is now around 6.5:1, instead of 2.5:1. Because the current ratio is not above this level, he believes that the current data are no worse than neutral.

This isn't to say the market couldn't go down, of course. But it means that if it were to do so, it most likely would be for reasons other than insider behavior.

 

[teknobucks]

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LOCK the Bastards up!

Big Board specialists to be charged
Fifteen facing indictments for improper trading
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:52 AM ET April 12, 2005

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Fifteen current and former New York Stock Exchange floor specialists are facing indictments Tuesday for improper trading.

The federal prosecutors are set to unveil nine indictments charging specialists with improper trading at the expense of customers during a four-year period.

If convicted, the specialists could face jail terms of up to 20 years in some cased and fines as high as $5 million, or twice the gross gain or loss from the offense, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York said.

Prosecutors are expected to charge individual specialists at units of Bank of America Corp. (BAC: news, chart, profile) , Van der Moolen (VDM: news, chart, profile) , Goldman Sachs Group (GS: news, chart, profile) and Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC: news, chart, profile) , the report said.

The charges are the latest in nearly two years worth of investigation into improper trading on the Big Board floor. The Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Bureau of Investigation also participated in the probe.

The NYSE was part of an earlier probe that resulted in a $240 million settlement against five specialist firms announced in March 2004.

Prosecutors are expected to file and settle charges against the NYSE for not properly policing floor traders, but it's unclear if that settlement will come today.

 

[teknobucks]

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anyone here into RFID at all??:

http://www.icerocket.com/search?tab=web&q=RFID+devices

wmt sure is! even if u are not interested in this technology u should understand it's implication on us all.

me thinks alternative nrg, nanotek, and rfid stox will rock.....dump those banks and oil/ gas rockets asap.

jmho

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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question?::%

raise your hand if u think the PPT turned the market today.:dah:

answer!::I

treasury so called plunge protection team might move the thinly traded ah and before market action a bit with futures manipulation....no way in heck can they budge vol. like tody!:i

today was a turn/reversal.....will we have a down day again? sure...probably tomm. after an AM spike up...LOL:shock:

u gotta give thta 1935 model a second look folks!!:^

NOW WE MELT UP FOR NO GOOD REASON AT ALL!!!!!LMAO:dude:

disenfranchisedBEARs.....hehehe

 

[teknobucks]

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Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
February 1-2, 2005

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, February 1, 2005, at 1:30 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, February 2, 2005, at 9:00 a.m.
Present:
Mr. Greenspan, Chairman
Mr. Geithner, Vice Chairman
Mr. Bernanke
Ms. Bies
Mr. Ferguson
Mr. Gramlich
Mr. Kohn
Mr. Moskow
Mr. Olson
Mr. Santomero
Mr. Stern

It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday, March 22, 2005.

The meeting adjourned at 12:35 p.m. on February 2, 2005.

Notation Vote
By notation vote completed on December 31, 2004, the Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee held on December 14, 2004.

Vincent R. Reinhart
Secretary

Footnotes

1. Attended Tuesday’s session only.

2. Attended portion of meeting relating to special topic of a numerical definition of the price-stability objective for monetary policy.

3. Attended portion of meeting related to the economic outlook.

4. Secretary's note: Advice subsequently was received that the selection of Mr. Kos as Manager was satisfactory to the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/minutes/20050202.htm

 

[Guest]

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The I-fund went down 3 cents to 15.58. I moved 20% from G to I right before the deadline when I saw how far it had dropped by noonET. I thought I would have bought in at better price, but I think I'm lucky it went down at all considering the rally.

 

[mlk_man]

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I don't really get into analyst's opinions, well, you know the saying..........but here is one anyone: http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/12/news/economy/fed_outlook/index.htm

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market Weather, Tea Leaves & Yak April 12, 2005 closing


Market weather.

Weather: initially looked like more gloom and doom. Townfolks read forecast from big chief and gave big rally party in PM. Previously referred to as a "whoosh". Horsemen (rates, inflation, and energy) still in area, but did not ride today. Lube was down -1.85 or $51.86 a bucket.


Charts, and tea leaves.

Charts: S&P ended 1186.76 up 6.55
P-SAR indicated a 1st red short at Yahoo.
CMF money flow ended at -0.147
RSI strength (50=mid rg) ended at 51.0
MACD moving averages were slightly bullish at -3.23

Tea leaves: Caution - still in trading range.

Yak

Remarks: F:} C:} S:} I:{

 

[learning]

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It appeared to me the market turned with the minutes came out from the March meeting. I thought there would have been more talk that the intrest rates would have to go up a little more aggresive. Glad I was wrong. :^ Market appears to be taking off.

 

[Safetyguy]

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http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20050322.htm

Here is the link to the FRB:FOMC minutes that were released today.

 

[cowboy]

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greg wrote:

The I-fund went down 3 cents to 15.58. I moved 20% from G to I right before the deadline when I saw how far it had dropped by noonET. I thought I would have bought in at better price, but I think I'm lucky it went down at all considering the rally.

It's not when, where or how you buy it. It is what it does after you buy it that counts.

 

[tsptalk]

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So far this morning the emotional money is selling, perhaps nervously taking profits from the rally they read about when they got home from work yesterday. Let's see if the market can turn back up later when the "smart money" kicks in at the end of the day.

That would be better actionthan just gapping upout of the gate.

 

[The_Technician]

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Hello all....just to let you know, I have pulled out of the C and S funds and went 100%G as of yesterday, 12 April.......... the market seems a bit edgy and a little unstable at the moment.

These next 10 days seem to be very unpredictable in my view....so I went safe.

the Technician

 

[CSI]

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In my humble opinion, if we can not make money over the next couple of weeks it could turn into a long summer, 1st quarter earnings should be good, but 2nd quarter earnings will be under pressure from where oil shot up during the 1st quarter.

Tom, hope you are right about smart money coming in later today. I would like to see a small increase as follow thru to yesterday. Even though volumn yesterday was the best we have had for a couple of weeks it was not what I was wanting. I wanted more to convince me that we have made a turn to the upside. Maybe we will just slowly climb the wall of worry.

 

[cowboy]

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Ditto, guys! I think the volumn the first hour is just what Tom says it is. We may lose some today but I don't think it is a move day for me. We had very good volumn the first hour and really the market is not responding poorly to it in my opinion. It seems like a negative start ends in a positive way lately.

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

Let's see if the market can turn back up later when the "smart money" kicks in at the end of the day.

Kicks in......? Do U mean a "whoosh"? BTW I'm adding "whoosh" to my tech dictionary. How do I define it? Does the number of "o's" have any significance?

U know I had to ask this! :^ Spaf