Market Talk

[Spaf]

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Market weather and Tarot Cards March 11 Closing

Weather: Indexes weredown :{. Oil prices, inflation worries and rate worries erroded confidence in the economy.

Cards (charts): S&P closed at 1200.08 dn -9.17 or -1.8% for the week. The CMF money flow indicator closed positive with slight gains. RSI relative strength was about neutral (overbought/sold). The MACD moving averages were positive, but declining with apparant (ma) crossover.

Remarks: Holding 85-15 (I-fund).Support may be at1184. Resistance about 1225. Market returns to trading range (cycles).

Rgds! Spaf

 

[learning]

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Well Spaf my hat is off to you. I watched some patterns, thought for the last couple of weeks that we were in at least a short term bull market. I did not see the market going down to this level. You were right and said 1184 for a low. :^ My guess was that a hit and a rebound would happen, My Low was around 1212. :? Well that was WRONG I had hoped that we were in a good market and that we would go up. That oil would slow things down but as long as it did not go much higher we were good for steady climb with a few pull backs and then buying.

Good Job

 

[Spaf]

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Yea rides the three horsemen

In the range of the valley yea fear the horsemen of pricing (oil), inflation, and rates. For they shall plunder your best efforts. Forsake this valley to safe harbor less you be robbedof your savings. Heed to safeground free of the horsemen. Beware they strike without warning! Their axe is swift, and cannot be out run with the burden of delay.

Take your savings to high ground free of the horsemen and there you shall be free of their wrath. The high ground may nigh have the sweet fruit of the valley, but preservation is now the prize.

:end:forsake the valley!

 

[learning]

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Spaf wrote:

Yea rides the three horsemen

Take your savings to high ground free of the horsemen and there you shall be free of their wrath. The high ground may nigh have the sweet fruit of the valley, but preservation is now the prize.

:end:forsake the valley!

Is this to say you have ran to the G fund? What of the I fund? I have been looking to get into it and will have started Mon. Cost average in if you will. Not 100% mind you. If it continues to do well though I could be there in time. If they stop buying our dollar that will hurt it badly. If they sell.....THAT WONT BE PRETTY FOR OUR ECONOMY. The I fund could stand to go through the roof though.

Thought. I have read that some people have been talking about the gov using our money to buy dollars. I do not see it. Reason- If we are in the G fund we have already bought dollars. The other funds would have to pull money out of them. I know they have pulled from this fund to cover their spending of several occasions. I do not believe they have pulled from the investment funds. Just the G. Or am I wrong? Wont, be the first time.:x

 

[smedlap]

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Good call learning. Be patient. Stock funds C and S are below CY start point and the I is up 3.5% same period. We have a great economy and we will be adding jobs the next 2 cycles so stick with I until that 2nd report. The C is projected to make 7% this CY so it has a lot of ground to recover and it will. The $ is projected to weaken by 7 - 8 %. This means in simple math, a 14 - 15% gain this CY if you play I. We should hit a traditional selling pocket this summer I think mid June, time to withdraw to G until everyone is back to work Sep and reports are being made late Oct. Then back to I.This "may" mean more than 15% gain. Just don't day trade until the market is goingin one direction such as during Nov - Dec. Be patient!!! Follow Tom's charts and watch Surehand, Oh I mean coolhand!

 

[Spaf]

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learning wrote:

Is this to say you have ran to the G fund? What of the I fund? I have been looking to get into it and will have started Mon. Cost average in if you will. Not 100% mind you.

Ran....no! Transfered....Yep. The third red candlestick would have been a shame on me! The decline broke (shattered) my stop of 1215.

The valley is the US funds. The mountain has the G fund. The I fund is across the waters. I'm15% I-fund, now. The problem with the G-fund is the hypnosis effect of the warm and fuzzies, however it is safe, and affords protection from the horsemen riding in thevalley.

 

[smedlap]

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Come on spaf, get an I fund draft! With G, you might as well drink tea! Everything is there to make gains right now! The many funds have dropped behind the start year line! Our US economy is growing. The world economy is growing less dower Europe (and the Euro). The chance to recover any loses or grab gains is now during a continued2 month economic growth period. We are in bio waves and I think the wave is about to turn up.

 

[coolhand]

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psst...spaf...here you go... http://www.reallyusefulbooks.com/product483.htm

 

[Spaf]

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Hey guys

The stats on the I-fund are looking good. If monday looks good, I'll transfer heavier into the I fund. Trying to think up an allocation figure. Any :Iidea? Where do yall stand?

Still 60-40 Coolhand?

Rgds Spaf

 

[coolhand]

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Spaf wrote:

Hey guys

The stats on the I-fund are looking good. If monday looks good, I'll transfer heavier into the I fund. Trying to think up an allocation figure. Any :Iidea? Where do yall stand?

Still 60-40 Coolhand?

Rgds Spaf

Yeah, I'm still 60/40, but I think I may be moving some more into the I. Maybe go 40/60. Won't make that decision till Monday morning.

http://tinyurl.com/5fo69

From the above article:

"The near-term outlook for the dollar doesn't appear to be any better ahead
of next week's US Treasury portfolio inflows (TICS) data and US fourth quarter
current account news."

Q4 Current Account comes out on Wednesday. Briefing.com and the overall consenuscalls for an increase of close to 18B. Thatwill not go over too well with the market. But then again, maybe its alreadypriced in after what happened last week. That's a pretty big increase for it to be a surprise the other way.


Also Wednesday,industrial production is expected to increase, which is good and carries some weight. Capacity utilization is also being released that day and is expected to remain bullish. These won't act to weaken the dollar, but should increase foreign equity inflows.

As far as US Treasury portfolio inflows (TICS), that has more bearing on bonds and the value of the dollar. It's being released Tuesday. This is whatmay drive the dollar lower.

http://tinyurl.com/ytbax

Also released tuesday will be business inventories. It was -.3 last month and expected to be .8 this month (briefing.com). That carries some weight too.

Overall, I am most comfortable with the I fund as the dollar acts as a hedge of sorts when equities fall. And vice versa. These reports don't always go the way they are predicted though.

After the January drop the I fund made some good gains without being too volatile, unlike the c and s, which, while theymostly recovered from January losses, didso in fits and starts. Tough to trade those kind of moves.

 

[Spaf]

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coolhand wrote:

Yeah, I'm still 60/40, but I think I may be moving some more into the I. Maybe go 40/60. Won't make that decision till Monday morning.

I couldn't sleep at 40/60. I was thinking like 70/30. But my timetable and priorities is a bit different. What ever.
A Monday check is a good thing!

Attachment

Rgds! Spaf

 

[coolhand]

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Spaf wrote:

I couldn't sleep at 40/60. I was thinking like 70/30. But my timetable and priorities is a bit different.

Of course. FWIW, 70/30 sounds reasonable to me for your situation. At least then you'll be drinking decaf coffee, a far cry from tea. (just kidding)

 

[blueskys4ever]

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Iam not as bullish about the I fund. While it is highly probable that the dollar will continue its decent, I think the latest escalation of crude oil has not taken it's toll on this market as of yet. A rising barrel sinks all boats. I will attempt to catch a falling knife. Call me crazy!

 

[tsptalk]

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A solid market bottom (the dollar in this case)is usually tested before we get atrue bottom. With the dollar sitting at 81.47, and the low late last year at 80.40, we could see thatdouble bottom very shortly which means the downside could be limited. Meaning the I fund might have to make it on its own soon, without help from a falling dollar. Unless of course you don't think 80.40 will hold.

 

[coolhand]

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I'm watching that. It is getting close. I'm of the mind that the dollar will at least approachthe 80.40 mark, if not break through. I will lighten up if it starts to show any strength, but I think there is still room this week for further weakness. Foreign equities are doing very well so far this year. Probablybecause of the dollar play.

The FOMC next week has my attention too. That's the other reason for watching what the dollar does this week. Don't think I want to be too heavy in the market after Friday.

 

[Spaf]

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Late night off topic cool ones:

http://www.flyboy-network.com/405.htm

Dedicated to all the air controllers, pilots and everone on their way to the airport!

Sure wish Tekno was here to see this!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Late night off topic!

Hey CoolhandI got a picture for you!

Rgds Spaf

 

[coolhand]

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Spaf wrote:

Late night off topic!

Hey CoolhandI got a picture for you!

Rgds Spaf

:l:l:l...great pic!

 

[Wheels]

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tsptalk wrote:

With the dollar sitting at 81.47, and the low late last year at 80.40

Where can I follow the dollar index (can it be followed during the trading day or just at the end of the day). Also, in another thread, it was pointed out that the I fund is made up heavily of countries that use either the Pound the Euro, or the Yen. So does following the dollar index give me a good picture of the dollar reference these currencies, or could there be a divergance there.

Thanks in advance,

Dave

 

[learning]

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Wheels wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

With the dollar sitting at 81.47, and the low late last year at 80.40

Where can I follow the dollar index (can it be followed during the trading day or just at the end of the day). Also, in another thread, it was pointed out that the I fund is made up heavily of countries that use either the Pound the Euro, or the Yen. So does following the dollar index give me a good picture of the dollar reference these currencies, or could there be a divergance there.

Thanks in advance,

Dave

Wow. That is a loaded question. If I knew more I would have been in the I fund sooner. Most of the people with the knowledge are going to the new week. I have seen the dollar go up against one currency and down against another. So I believe that it is good to watch the dollar index. I would have to also watch the individual currencies as well though. The ones that make up the bulk of the I fund are the most important. Not that the others are not important. Hope you could follow. I'm short of time and rushed this.

Luck and be careful.