Market Talk

[vectorman]

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Don't get me wrong, I'm not in the bear camp. I watch the trends and the I fund has been in a good trend for the last several months. Those who buy and hold have done pretty well for themselves. Rolo, I agree with your comment, that's it better not to move your allocations around too much, because it does water down onesfuture gains. Question- On that February seasonality chart for day 12, is that suppose to be wednesday? Funny, the same day that Greenspan is suppose to speak.:s

 

[Rolo]

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Has anyone plottedhow the current month is performing on these seasonality charts? (to see if we are following it, opposing it, whatever).

If there is a text version of that, I can prolly whip one up in Excel.

 

[Guest]

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vectorman wrote:

Isn't it interesting how many were saying in December the I fund price is too high or the I fund scares me, but now that it's at a all time high, peopleare jumping in like crazy. Don't forget thecontrarian view.

For those who have beenexcitedabout the returns of the I fund during the past few days, a word of caution.

While I alsobelieve that the I fund will be the place to be for most of this year, IMHO, the current bump up in this fund has almost totally been due to avery short term (i.e. one-two week) fall in the dollar, thatcouldbe coming to ahalt shortly.

So far today, the dollar is down .4% and the I fund is up .4%.

The dollar is currently at about 83.60 and falling.Itwould not surprise meto see a turnaround in the dollaras it nears 83, with a resumption of the short term rally in the dollar.

 

[neirbod]

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saraho wrote:

While I alsobelieve that the I fund will be the place to be for most of this year, IMHO, the current bump up in this fund has almost totally been due to avery short term (i.e. one-two week) fall in the dollar, thatcouldbe coming to ahalt shortly.

I agree that the falling dollar is a contributing factor. However, European stocks are also at record highs:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/15/news/international/markets_europe.reut/index.htm

That being said, there is still reason for caution. European economies aren't doing well as a whole.

Dave

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5448361

this guy errs to the conservative very often...he is very quick to sell and lock in profits.

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options week tends to give one day with a fairly large move in the opposite direction of the trend coming in.
Usually wed or thurs...
With the trend since late Jan up, the one day should be down a decent size.
will tommorrow be it?

AG speaks tomm.... the bears turn perhaps???

also...capital gains taxes are about to be eliminated. what will this do to the market ? is it already being factored in ?

bottom line of speculation...up trend with acorrection due:

http://chart.tradesignal.com/chartheft/image.asp?id=1203315&w=950&h=550&t=1

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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ChevronTexaco Warns of Global Bidding War
Tuesday February 15, 5:32 pm ET
By Deepa Babington


HOUSTON (Reuters) - Asia's insatiable appetite for oil coupled with tight supplies has triggered the start of a global bidding war for oil from the Middle East, the head of ChevronTexaco Corp. said on Tuesday.



The rapid growth in energy demand from Asia coupled with difficulties in accessing oil reserves has also resulted in a new energy equation where the days of cheap oil and gas are numbered, Dave O'Reilly, chief executive of ChevronTexaco, told a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference.

Asian giants like China and India figure prominently in this new energy equation -- a development that should not go unnoticed by the U.S. government, O'Reilly said, without specifying what exactly Uncle Sam should do about it.

"What I see happening is the beginning of alliances forming between Asian entities and Middle East entities for the long term," O'Reilly told reporters. "And I think it's very important that our government recognizes and understands the implications of that."

The remarks come as the emergence of fast-growing nations like India and China on the global energy scene sparks fears that they may outbid Western oil majors in asset deals or in securing access to a shrinking pool of oil reserves.

"We are seeing the beginnings of a bidding war for Mideast supplies between East and West," O'Reilly said. "The new Asian demand is reshaping the marketplace -- and we're seeing the center of gravity of petroleum markets shift to Asia, and in particular to China and India."

The Asian impact on demand coupled with the lack of easy access to areas of plentiful oil reserves has also meant that oil prices aren't coming down anytime soon, he said.

Oil prices shot up dramatically in the past year thanks to fears of a supply disruption and the spike in demand, prompting a growing crowd within the energy industry to ponder whether sky-high oil prices are here to stay.

"The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending," O'Reilly told the conference.

 

[Spaf]

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It may just be me and some of my funds, but the small caps have been slowing down and the large caps have been picking up. For the month to day C is up .24, S is up .23. Small caps running out of gas?

Thinking, thinking.:.:.: :? Spaf

 

[Rod]

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Spaf wrote:

It may just be me and some of my funds, but the small caps have been slowing down and the large caps have been picking up. For the month to day C is up .24, S is up .23. Small caps running out of gas?

Thinking, thinking.:.:.: :? Spaf

(S) is still lagging behind its 2004 closing price of 14.73. It is currently 14.55.

(C) has already made up for its Jan losses. Its 2004 closing was 12.91. It is now sitting at 12.92.

Furthermore, (I)s 2004 closing was 15.48. It is now at 15.62.

Looks like (I) is the place to be... for now.

God Bless:^

 

[Mike]

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C and I are leading as expected.

S&P has a fewmore points to gain before it establishes a renewed bull trend.

As usual, Greenspan is looming large... :shock:

 

[teknobucks]

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http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

 

[Spaf]

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For Wednesday Feburary 16, 2005

Do we get to ride the Bull......or ........get slashed by a Bear?

The higher high was 1213.55 on Dec. 30, 04 on the S&P.
Today...............was 1210.12 on Feb. 15, 05 on the S&P.

Could it...Will it....can it.....maybe....na....no-way.... or squeak to 1213.54 :?

Will the market see it's shadow and run back in it's hole, or will it come out for spring?

Hey Tekno! Whats the fundamental forecast on groundhogs? We need reasearch quick!

I love it! Spaf

 

[Montana]

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http://screen.morningstar.com/index/indexReturnsYtdDesc.html

 

[Guest]

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With all equity funds above their 50 day MA, and in positive ground over the past few weeks, and continuing to trend up, I may be moving to 100% equities shortly.

1 year : I 15%, S 10%, C 6%

6mo: I 21%, S 23%, C 14%

3 mo I 5%, S 3.9%, C 2.2%

2 mo I 2.5%, S 0%, C .5%

1 mo I 3.5%, S 2.5%, C 2.2%

2 wks I 2.3%, S 1.5%, C 1.8%

1 wk I 2.9%, S 0%, C 0.8%

 

[Mike]

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I have similar sentiment but am awaiting a buying opportunity.

 

[Guest]

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BTW, there was mention of a head and shoulders formation previously....by someone who will go nameless....and he particularly mentioned the NASDAQ, I believe. If anyone here also seessuch a formation, could you please show it to me? I don't see it. I see the NASDAQ forming a saucer, in a long term,rather slow,bullish pattern.

 

[Spaf]

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saraho wrote:

BTW, there was mention of a head and shoulders formation previously....by someone who will go nameless....and he particularly mentioned the NASDAQ, I believe. If anyone here also seessuch a formation, could you please show it to me? I don't see it. I see the NASDAQ forming a saucer, in a long term,rather slow,bullish pattern.

Head And Shoulders: A powerful reversal signal, this chart pattern is completed by a lower peak followed by a break below the neckline...

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm

Rgds, Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

Head And Shoulders: A powerful reversal signal, this chart pattern is completed by a lower peak followed by a break below the neckline...

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm

Rgds, Spaf

Thanks Spaf. Iguess I wasn't clear in my request. I wasn't asking WHAT it was. I know what it is. I was asking WHERE he saw it.

Thanks again. Sarah

 

[tsptalk]

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I don't see it either saraho. The Dow was forming one but the recent runup has made it a rather lameH&S. That was my point with MT. Why act on a formation that hasn't happened yet? When the index heads down to the neckline (from the right shoulder), you see if it breaks below on higher volume. We never got there.Pointing out that there is one forming is one thing (as I did with the oil chart) but acting as if the formation already happened as MT was, is too much of an assumption for me.

 

[tennisguy]

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Yea that guy actually got me gun shy and I missed out on some good gains.:XBut you live and learn

Tennis Guy

 

[Guest]

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Thanks Tom. I thought that he was referring to the NASDAQ as the basis for upcoming problems in all indices (that it would bring them all down), but I didn't see anything there. Regarding the Dow, IMHO, the last time we really could have discussed the possibility of a head and shoulders formationwas inmid 2003, but it broke out of that pattern.