Market Talk

[Rolo]

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teknobucks wrote:

saraho wrote:

Historically, whenever we have had a down Jan and Feb, March has tended to be up.

It happened in 2003, 2002, 2000. (and 62% of the time since 1950)



If Feb ends up, March will also have a positive bias, but not as great (57%)

Sara!

jan down, eagles lost, small moon, tea leaves blown off table,jobs goneoverseas, money worthless, oh almost forgotyear ends in FIVE!!! LOL:dude:

ehehehe right on, tekno.

Ummm......Sarah.....62%? I think I can flip a coin and get heads 62% of the time.

87%? That is noteworthy...maybe even useful. Otherwise, it sounds like clinging to hope. (those blasted emotions again)


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Good post, Spaf, thanks.

 

[Guest]

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Rolo wrote:

saraho wrote:

Historically, whenever we have had a down Jan and Feb, March has tended to be up.

It happened in 2003, 2002, 2000. (and 62% of the time since 1950)



If Feb ends up, March will also have a positive bias, but not as great (57%)

ehehehe right on, tekno.

Ummm......Sarah.....62%? I think I can flip a coin and get heads 62% of the time.

87%? That is noteworthy...maybe even useful. Otherwise, it sounds like clinging to hope. (those blasted emotions again)

Rolo,

1. The probability of 3 occurrences of an event in a row, where each event hasa .5 chance of occurring randomly, is 1:8 or 12%. In other words, its quite rare and nearingstatistical significance.

2. The probability of 8 occurrences of an event or more, out of 13 trials, with each having a .5 probability of random occurrenceis 29% or 3:10. Again, that means 7:10 times, it will not occur.

You poo poo so easily...

 

[Wheels]

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I am having a crappy year. I jump into G - C and S take off, I jump out of I and into S - dollar falls, S drops 20 cents while I goes up one cent. I am currently about a percent and a half below the C Fund. Why am I telling you all this. Because I pulled everything out of stocks today and into G effective COB today. Thought you'd all like to know so you can load up on stocks for the 3 day run we are about to have.

Beaten down,

Dave

 

[Mike]

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Why use a random event example when the market is not random?

 

[Rolo]

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saraho wrote:

You poo poo so easily...

Again with therear end loads!

12%? .5....whatdahell u talkin' bout? (seriously, heh, <Apu voice> I am not seeing the dot-connecting.)


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bahahhaa, Wheels. Whatever it is yer doin' ain't werkin', so change it. (been there, done that, will be doing it again I am sure)

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Mike wrote:

Why use a random event example when the market is not random?

'Cos I think, to some extent, the Uncertainty Principle applies.

 

[teknobucks]

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saraho wrote:

Rolo wrote:

saraho wrote:

Historically, whenever we have had a down Jan and Feb, March has tended to be up.

It happened in 2003, 2002, 2000. (and 62% of the time since 1950)



If Feb ends up, March will also have a positive bias, but not as great (57%)

ehehehe right on, tekno.

Ummm......Sarah.....62%? I think I can flip a coin and get heads 62% of the time.

87%? That is noteworthy...maybe even useful. Otherwise, it sounds like clinging to hope. (those blasted emotions again)

Rolo,

1. The probability of 3 occurrences of an event in a row, where each event hasa .5 chance of occurring randomly, is 1:8 or 12%. In other words, its quite rare and nearingstatistical significance.

2. The probability of 8 occurrences of an event or more, out of 13 trials, with each having a .5 probability of random occurrenceis 29% or 3:10. Again, that means 7:10 times, it will not occur.

You poo poo so easily...

yeah Rolo.....

and [e[suP]x [/suP]] dy dx

[e[suP]x [/suP]] dy dx


secant tangent cosine sine....3.14159.....LMAO

tekno

 

[Mike]

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Rolo:

1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2 = 1/8... or the odds of something happening three times in a row when the odds of that something happening once is 50% or 1 in 2. 1/8 = 12.5%.

Signed,

Your resident math dork. :l

 

[teknobucks]

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Wheels wrote:

I am having a crappy year. I jump into G - C and S take off, I jump out of I and into S - dollar falls, S drops 20 cents while I goes up one cent. I am currently about a percent and a half below the C Fund. Why am I telling you all this. Because I pulled everything out of stocks today and into G effective COB today. Thought you'd all like to know so you can load up on stocks for the 3 day run we are about to have.

Beaten down,

Dave

Sorry 2 see a brother controller beaten down.....however u may be making a smart move here.

nobody knows which way this thing is goingo

good luck tekno

 

[Rolo]

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Mike wrote:

1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2 = 1/8... or the odds of something happening three times in a row when the odds of that something happening once is 50% or 1 in 2. 1/8 = 12.5%.

ooooOOOOOOHHHH! I see. So simple once I am required to not figure it out. Thanks for the explanation. I guess I should not have tapped around all those math classes. I am thinking of making it a goal of mine to take on my math weakness and conquer it. It's like, last on my list. People keep telling me I should use a pencil instead of a pen. I just wanna ask for a chisel instead 'cos that's what itfeels like and I don't wanna hear "YOU program COMPUTERS and you aren't good at MATH!?!?" Yes. Computers <> Math. Computer Dorks <> Math Dorks.

So, the assertion here is that since March was up post down-Jan-Feb in 2002 and 2003, then--no, wait, what about 2004? So where's this three in a row thing? Whatdahell is saraho talking about? Aaaaaahhhhh!

 

[Rolo]

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Mike wrote:

Why use a random event example when the market is not random?

Words....got'em now...take a while...

I agree...the Market is not random, like a coin toss. Therefore, I don't find any use for most of these statistics. I think they can be useful for finding the occasional, apocryphalmarket force, but most of it is just noise.

 

[Guest]

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The C and S funds both appear to be bouncing off their 50 day MA...IMHO, this is very positive, if it holds...

 

[Rolo]

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Glad yer back to talking some sense.

 

[tsptalk]

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Wheels wrote:

I am having a crappy year. I jump into G - C and S take off, I jump out of I and into S - dollar falls, S drops 20 cents while I goes up one cent. I am currently about a percent and a half below the C Fund. Why am I telling you all this. Because I pulled everything out of stocks today and into G effective COB today. Thought you'd all like to know so you can load up on stocks for the 3 day run we are about to have.

Beaten down,

Dave

Thanks for the warning. I know how you feel. Everyone goes through it. Somedays I can't pick the winner of a one horse race and somedays I get in at the exact bottom or out at the top.

Sometimes when I am out of sync you may notice I spread things out more (25% inG, C, S and I for example). Other times whenI am on a roll and will make bolder moves (100% I or 100% S or even 100% G,etc.).

Hang in there. It always turns.

 

[teknobucks]

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http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=18156

make your own TP!!

 

[Spaf]

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Wheels wrote:

I jump into G - C and S take off, I jump out of I and into S - dollar falls, S drops 20 cents while I goes up one cent. Beaten down,Dave

I don't think it's you Dave....It's the market. Dick Green at Briefings.com said it the best "The fundamentals are good for long-term investors, but the choppy action makes short-term trading treacherous and subject to whipsaw conditions."

I have somereal time trading and the same thing happens. You kind of got to sit it out. The problem is you don't know ifyou should be in-stocks or out. It was kind of neat this morning the DJIA goes flying, the NASD falls in a sinkhole, and S&P goes spuddering down the taxiway.

Get a glass of whatever Mike is drinking. Sit in Tom's chair and watch the market beat itself up.

Rgds!! Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Feb 10, 2005

Current market conditions [MHO analysis].

Pricing was Up. Trends are Up (bullish), but charts were bearish. From Feb 2 to Feb 10 of 18 indicators, 11 were cautious and 7 were green. Timing was neutral, because trading could go either way. Composites were Up, but the trend was falling. Buying was at 21%, selling 17%, and holding at 62%. The CMF money flow was decending to 0.0 on the S&Pcharts. Moving averages were mixed, and action was choppy.

Have parked funds for better weather. Rgds! Spaf

 

[Wheels]

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Wheels wrote:

Because I pulled everything out of stocks today and into G effective COB today. Thought you'd all like to know so you can load up on stocks for the 3 day run we are about to have.

Told ya. Man I am seriously out of synch. Maybe the S&P will go up 3 or 4% today just to rub some salt in the wound. Is it too late to get in on that internet chatroom Valentine's day suicide pact deal? I can throw myself out a first story window like that guy in the commercial back during the bubble in 1999. That was hilarious.

 

[Spaf]

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Wheels...We got our selves a multi directional market. We were headed to Bearsville. Now we have switched, and are headed back to Bullsville.
The charts are all over the place!

Sure could go for some smooth sailing! Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Maybe....Just maybe, todays rally will set the primary direction back to bullish.

Will plan to make a transfer for monday to 25G, 10F, 25C,30S and 10I. If the AM market looks stable I'll let it ride.

Rgds, and here's hoping for some calmness! Spaf

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2005/02/10/043.html

not good:s:s