teknobucks
Active member
imported post
Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for the close on Friday 02/11/05
STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:
The stock market was mainly sideways on Friday except for a 30 minute
surge that seemed to be a reaction to a rumor that Kim Jong II had been
deposed. After the rumor was debunked the stock market did not give back
its gains.
The market was also helped by a 2 for 1 stock split by Apple Computer
and a general sense that the Semiconductors were headed higher. The
semiconductor index, SOX gained 3.6% for the day. That's like a Dow gain
of 390 points. Incidentally, stock splits frequently come at tops. The last
Apple split was in June of 2000 and the next 2 1/2 years were down for the
stock.
We have been telling you that the market looked to be headed higher on a
short term basis, but the Dow and S&P 500 are now approaching the late
December highs. This is where the last rally was turned back which makes it
a resistance level.
Our best estimate is that the market will not make it through these levels,
at least not on this run. We think that there is a good chance that another
multi day decline will soon ensue. At some point, we will break out to the
upside, but probably not now. However, we will await to be instructed. On
an intermediate term basis, we are quite bullish. Stay tuned.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
There were no economic releases to report on Friday.
On the stock front, the aforementioned Apple Computer rose 4%. MKS
Instruments and Watson Pharmaceuticals beat estimates and added 6% and
10%. Analog Devices came up short on earnings, but still moved higher by
3%. Novellus Systems rose 7% after an upgrade by C.S. First Boston.
On the negative side, Dell beat estimates and guided higher, but revenue
was regarded as light and the stock lost 4% and no I don't understand it
either. Coinstar sank 6% after forecasting lower results than Wall Street
expected. Hovnanian lost 5% on negative comments by Smith Barney. Pixar
and Click Commerce beat estimates, but came up short on revenue and gave
up 4% and 18%. Sharper Image guided lower and lost 11%.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems remain on a buy
signal. Mutual fund investors are 100% invested in a growth or index fund
of their choice.
SPY and QQQQ traders are in cash. Stay there for now.
For new subscribers, the QQQQ and SPY are exchange traded funds or
Spiders.
The former mimics the Nasdaq 100 and the latter mimics the S&P 500. ----
Additionally, an m.i.t. order means “market if touched” It means that your
order becomes a market order if the price is touched.
OTHER MARKETS
We are on a buy signal for bonds.
Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for the close on Friday 02/11/05
STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:
The stock market was mainly sideways on Friday except for a 30 minute
surge that seemed to be a reaction to a rumor that Kim Jong II had been
deposed. After the rumor was debunked the stock market did not give back
its gains.
The market was also helped by a 2 for 1 stock split by Apple Computer
and a general sense that the Semiconductors were headed higher. The
semiconductor index, SOX gained 3.6% for the day. That's like a Dow gain
of 390 points. Incidentally, stock splits frequently come at tops. The last
Apple split was in June of 2000 and the next 2 1/2 years were down for the
stock.
We have been telling you that the market looked to be headed higher on a
short term basis, but the Dow and S&P 500 are now approaching the late
December highs. This is where the last rally was turned back which makes it
a resistance level.
Our best estimate is that the market will not make it through these levels,
at least not on this run. We think that there is a good chance that another
multi day decline will soon ensue. At some point, we will break out to the
upside, but probably not now. However, we will await to be instructed. On
an intermediate term basis, we are quite bullish. Stay tuned.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
There were no economic releases to report on Friday.
On the stock front, the aforementioned Apple Computer rose 4%. MKS
Instruments and Watson Pharmaceuticals beat estimates and added 6% and
10%. Analog Devices came up short on earnings, but still moved higher by
3%. Novellus Systems rose 7% after an upgrade by C.S. First Boston.
On the negative side, Dell beat estimates and guided higher, but revenue
was regarded as light and the stock lost 4% and no I don't understand it
either. Coinstar sank 6% after forecasting lower results than Wall Street
expected. Hovnanian lost 5% on negative comments by Smith Barney. Pixar
and Click Commerce beat estimates, but came up short on revenue and gave
up 4% and 18%. Sharper Image guided lower and lost 11%.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems remain on a buy
signal. Mutual fund investors are 100% invested in a growth or index fund
of their choice.
SPY and QQQQ traders are in cash. Stay there for now.
For new subscribers, the QQQQ and SPY are exchange traded funds or
Spiders.
The former mimics the Nasdaq 100 and the latter mimics the S&P 500. ----
Additionally, an m.i.t. order means “market if touched” It means that your
order becomes a market order if the price is touched.
OTHER MARKETS
We are on a buy signal for bonds.
ha ha.
)...have a great weekend...do what ya got to do...I really don't care...just trying to bring a different view to the board...there are some folks that can not afford to take a 75% hit again like the NAS fell from 2000-2002....S&P only fell 50% so that would be my safe haven...only have to make 100% to get back to even....piece of cake...
Thanks for the heads up.
Spaf
"
