Market Talk / September 24th - 30th

[Spaf]

Birch,

I understand. But bro this is the world wide web your on! Sometimes you just gotta bite your lips and let it go. The market, politics and religions are a global issue! I don't know the solution, but I don't want to fuel the fires! I was told long ago that if I had a emotional memo, place it on hold till tomorrow. And tomorow re-evaluate it.

Like most, I've made a bucket full of mistakes, and all we can do is empty the bucket and start anew.

Your the permi-bull, lead us to the pasture!

Regards, and be careful!............. ....................Spaf

 

[Show-me]

And for the week ending September 29..............

G +0.086%
F -0.090%
C +1.589%
S +1.471%
I +1.205%

 

[James48843]

Don't forget to take the weekly "Sentiment survey" poll on the right hand side of the homepage of tsptalk.

I'm thinking we're about to get a pause.

But what do YOU think?

Take the poll.

 

[fabijo]

And for the week ending September 29..............

G +0.086%
F -0.090%
C +1.589%
S +1.471%
I +1.205%

I still think the I fund was the quickest because that 1.205% was gained in 3 days.

 

[Spaf]

Indicators say we are in a pause!

Some say mild. Some say moderate. Based on the last two (RE [$SPX]) I'm leaning toward mild. Somewhere between -10 to -20 on the S&P.

However, when investors make up for the summer energy spendings all the bulls should be running when we hit the better months.....MHO!

Don't forget to take the weekly "Sentiment survey" poll on the right hand side of the homepage of tsptalk.

I'm thinking we're about to get a pause.

But what do YOU think?

Take the poll.

 

[ATCJeff]

"Correction" or retracement and consolidation? I'm betting on an F fund retracement or consolidation to the 20 day MA.

What is the curent 20 dma?

Jeff

 

[tsptalk]

What is the curent 20 dma?

It is rising quickly, but the AGG (F fund tracking bond index) 20-DMA is about 99.60. The AGG closed at 100.16 yesterday. The 50 DMA is currently 98.90.

 

[robo]

I think these GUYS are talking long term for the "F". I'm doing the "G" thing until I see some action. I will not Hang-in-there too long again, Learned the hard way! Terra coda don't you just love it?

Nnuut,

As you know tops take some time to complete. We should see more up side on the Market and don't get me wrong Bonds are still a buy. However, I'm never the last one to buy and most of the time head to the exits early.. Now this cost me money for not staying invested, but my goal every year minumum 7% and would like to get 10% around 6% for the YTD.. I'm a conservative investor, but I just don't have the stomach for 100% stock investing like the Big Bull Birchtree does.. I value many on this board for their opinion, get paid services, and I also get the Shark. After reading all recommendations I make the finally decision. Made some bad choices shorting the market this year, but getting closer to some gains again in my Brokerage accouts. Plenty of time to make money this year going long and shorting. I trade frequently in my Brokerage account and I'm a trend follower in my TSP account...

Some comments I read and you have probably heard before:

Be afraid when others are greedy and be greddy when others are afraid..

All I hear these days is Goldilocks on CNBC.. Maybe it is and if so I will make some money... In my opinion The Market needs a rest and when it does I will buy again.... I'm hoping to get another 4% gain buy the end of the year.. Hoping!!!! Should be doable and I know some will make much higher gains.

But as I pointed out I'm not Greedy. I will have a very hard time spending the money I have now before I die... Building additional weath for my kid is not one of my goals and I'm very close to critical mass. I'm counting my Military Retirement, TSP, FERS and my IRA's... Social Security is not in my formula it will be gravy...

Good Investing/trading!!

GO GO Birchtree S&P 1400

 

[nnuut]

I couldn't have said it better Robo. Yes I have missed some big gains by sitting in the "G" or "F", but I've also missed some big downs, like in May this year. Yes a little Conservative, but considering that I could have retired three years ago that may be the thing I need to do. CSRS will be good to me, but need that little extra that my TSP account will provide. Qualified for SS but with the WEP that won't be much, WHAT's UP WITH THAT?

 

[robo]

A miss for Mike. You can read his report on Safehaven later this weekend, or sign-up below...


Technical market report for September 30, 2006.

The good news is:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit a new high for the year last week coming within 5 points (0.004%) of its all time high hit in early 2000.

For more information about the Presidential Cycle go to:

http://alphaim.net/research/Pres_Cycle/index.html


Conclusion
Most short and intermediate term indicators are moving downward.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday October 6 than they were on Friday September 29.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html

If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

My negative forecast last week based on deteriorating indicators and negative seasonality was a miss.

Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W21/L9/T9

 

[nnuut]

A miss for Mike. You can read his report on Safehaven later this weekend, or sign-up below...


Technical market report for September 30, 2006.

The good news is:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit a new high for the year last week coming within 5 points (0.004%) of its all time high hit in early 2000.

For more information about the Presidential Cycle go to:

http://alphaim.net/research/Pres_Cycle/index.html


Conclusion
Most short and intermediate term indicators are moving downward.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday October 6 than they were on Friday September 29.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html

If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

My negative forecast last week based on deteriorating indicators and negative seasonality was a miss.

Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W21/L9/T9

Yep, DOW was high in Feb or March 2000, just before the CRASH! Check it out>>>>> http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=5y

 

[robo]

Nnutt,

My TSP is similar to the account below.. It would be nice to make some money the last quarter to get me over 10% in some of my longer term averages. Not great returns, but meetings my goals!! Made some money in September so I'm around 6% total... Very conservative, but I spend money the same way I earn it. No car payments, house or credit card bills in this family...

Take Care!



Today is: September 30, 2006

RETIREMENT SAVINGS FUND

Personal Rate of Return Three Year as of 08/31/2006 9.17%

Plan YTD as of 08/31/2006 4.82%

 

[nnuut]

Yep, tight just like me. The old CASA will be paid off next year!

 

[Spaf]

Will be closing the weekly thread and starting a new one!
Thanks for all the fine posts!
A new Q4 starts
Regards
Spaf