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Market Talk / September 24th - 30th
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
We are approaching a 10 week low that nests on 9/29 plus or minus 2 days. And many folks are still looking for the 9 month and 4 year cycle low in the middle of October. If I were a bear I would be trembling with trepidation and most certainly wearing my neck collar to protect me from whiplash. This bull is still looking for a panic buy to the upside. I believe the 9 month and 4 year cycle lows have past. And as a family unit I have better than ? millions on the line. The anticipation is for a double over the next 12 months. Snort.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Daily Yak
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks up as lube ends in a retreat.
Con-Yak...................................Lube's in oscilation.
Jester-Yak................................Top of the channel.
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1339.15, up +2.56.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.203, back up.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+8.546/7.001, holding divergence.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............up at +1.544.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........96.78, rising.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 69.75 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.76, dn -0.20
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.
Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1326. Trail: 1313.
The Kingdom of TSP
Catfish Channel
Daily Edition
September 28, 2006 Closing
September 28, 2006 Closing
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box
Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks up as lube ends in a retreat.
Con-Yak...................................Lube's in oscilation.
Jester-Yak................................Top of the channel.
Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1339.15, up +2.56.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.203, back up.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+8.546/7.001, holding divergence.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............up at +1.544.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........96.78, rising.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 69.75 [30]
Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.76, dn -0.20
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.
Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.
Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1326. Trail: 1313.
Birchtree
Well-known member
The NYSE short interest ratio is at 7.0 - the highest ratio since July 1998. Since the (cyclical) bull market began in 10/02, a spike in the NYSE short interest ratio has always led to a subsequent rally in the stock market. Allah I hope this will be the case. Lilly pads have such pretty flowers this time of year - no wonder so many are distracted - it's not fear but the appreciation of beauty. And don't worry I've eaten crow before.
robo
Well-known member
New Bull Market Or Bear Trap?
September 29, 2006
The U.S. stock market is flirting with new high for the Dow (DJIA) as well as new multi-year highs for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Is this for real? Or are traders being set up for a kick in the gut?
The bulls point to an end to Fed rate hikes and possible rate cuts in December. They like lower commodities prices and in fact, gasoline in many locations is now below $2.00 a gallon.
The bears see a potential weakening economy, a split market with the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) and technology stocks lagging far behind the big caps (a bearish divergence), and of course the continued tensions in the mid-east which could flame up again at any moment.
What is a trader to do? There is no question about the current trend. Stay with the trend, which is up. But keep your stops tight. The bears have some good points. Until and unless the market reverses however, UP is the way to trade.
September 29, 2006
The U.S. stock market is flirting with new high for the Dow (DJIA) as well as new multi-year highs for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Is this for real? Or are traders being set up for a kick in the gut?
The bulls point to an end to Fed rate hikes and possible rate cuts in December. They like lower commodities prices and in fact, gasoline in many locations is now below $2.00 a gallon.
The bears see a potential weakening economy, a split market with the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) and technology stocks lagging far behind the big caps (a bearish divergence), and of course the continued tensions in the mid-east which could flame up again at any moment.
What is a trader to do? There is no question about the current trend. Stay with the trend, which is up. But keep your stops tight. The bears have some good points. Until and unless the market reverses however, UP is the way to trade.
robo
Well-known member
Is the Crowd Bullish or Bearish?
Sentiment studies have been very mixed lately. Our own dollar-weighted ratio for the OEX registered an overly-bullish reading on Wednesday. That signals a trading top within 2-3 days. However, QQQ traders were (and are) quite bearish, with Thursday's reading almost to the overly-bearish level. Perhaps we should call these readings overly-confused?
Another sentiment reading from Jake Bernstein is said to be showing over 90% bulls, the highest since just before the 2001 meltdown in the market.
The anecdotal evidence says the crowd is bullish. CNBC's best reporter, Bob Pisani, reported that of the trading desks he had informally surveyed, approximately 95% were bullish on stocks. That's far too many bulls to produce a good rally because if these traders are bullish, they have already bought. Even if the remaining 5% turn bullish and buy, how far can they push the market up?
In any case, the stock market has been trying mightily to get the Dow Industrials to a new high. Day after day, the media urges the market on. And, the Republicans do, too, since a new all-time high in the stock market is sure to buoy sentiment ahead of the November Congressional Elections and help erase some of the bad feelings voters harbor toward the situation in the Middle East. We would be very surprised if the Dow doesn't score a new all-time high in the next day or two.
Unfortunately, new highs in the stock market are only going to marginally help the economy, which is sinking slowly in the West. GDP figures show that growth has plummeted by 50% over the last six months. At that rate of descent, the economy's growth rate will turn negative by early 2007, not late 2007 as we had been suggesting -- that is, barring a Fed rate cut to add to the rate cut already engineered by the bond market rally. When investors start discounting the probability of lower earnings from the recession, they might decide to sell. If they do so at once, we just might get a decline very similar to the May debacle, bearish sentiment or not.
Friday is the last day of the third quarter and the closing values of stocks will appear on money manager report cards for the quarter. It is in their best interest that those prices be as high as possible. Last year, the third quarter ended on a rally which gave way to a steep corrective decline starting on the first trading day of October. History may very well repeat that pattern this year.
Sentiment studies have been very mixed lately. Our own dollar-weighted ratio for the OEX registered an overly-bullish reading on Wednesday. That signals a trading top within 2-3 days. However, QQQ traders were (and are) quite bearish, with Thursday's reading almost to the overly-bearish level. Perhaps we should call these readings overly-confused?
Another sentiment reading from Jake Bernstein is said to be showing over 90% bulls, the highest since just before the 2001 meltdown in the market.
The anecdotal evidence says the crowd is bullish. CNBC's best reporter, Bob Pisani, reported that of the trading desks he had informally surveyed, approximately 95% were bullish on stocks. That's far too many bulls to produce a good rally because if these traders are bullish, they have already bought. Even if the remaining 5% turn bullish and buy, how far can they push the market up?
In any case, the stock market has been trying mightily to get the Dow Industrials to a new high. Day after day, the media urges the market on. And, the Republicans do, too, since a new all-time high in the stock market is sure to buoy sentiment ahead of the November Congressional Elections and help erase some of the bad feelings voters harbor toward the situation in the Middle East. We would be very surprised if the Dow doesn't score a new all-time high in the next day or two.
Unfortunately, new highs in the stock market are only going to marginally help the economy, which is sinking slowly in the West. GDP figures show that growth has plummeted by 50% over the last six months. At that rate of descent, the economy's growth rate will turn negative by early 2007, not late 2007 as we had been suggesting -- that is, barring a Fed rate cut to add to the rate cut already engineered by the bond market rally. When investors start discounting the probability of lower earnings from the recession, they might decide to sell. If they do so at once, we just might get a decline very similar to the May debacle, bearish sentiment or not.
Friday is the last day of the third quarter and the closing values of stocks will appear on money manager report cards for the quarter. It is in their best interest that those prices be as high as possible. Last year, the third quarter ended on a rally which gave way to a steep corrective decline starting on the first trading day of October. History may very well repeat that pattern this year.
Birchtree
Well-known member
'Robo,
I remember way back to August 1982 - the economy was in a fairly deep recession and the stock market exploded straight up. The recession didn't end until December of that year. The people that were the professionals stayed out and missed a good portion of the move - they couldn't understand what the omnipotent market was seeing in the future. Of course it was seeing a recovery and expansion. I was only a young gun back then but was slowly molding myself into a contrarian of unknown merit - way out on the proverbial limb - but I did pull down $300,000 in ten months. If this market wants to rally for no obvious reason I'll go right along with it because I know if I'm correct in assuming the risk I'll make some serious coin - once you been there it's hard to dismiss the emotion and fear of getting crushed while running in front of the train. But that is where I long to run.
And thanks for all the good stuff. It will be fun to see how much of that old Forest Gumption Henry has - can he last. I know I can.
I remember way back to August 1982 - the economy was in a fairly deep recession and the stock market exploded straight up. The recession didn't end until December of that year. The people that were the professionals stayed out and missed a good portion of the move - they couldn't understand what the omnipotent market was seeing in the future. Of course it was seeing a recovery and expansion. I was only a young gun back then but was slowly molding myself into a contrarian of unknown merit - way out on the proverbial limb - but I did pull down $300,000 in ten months. If this market wants to rally for no obvious reason I'll go right along with it because I know if I'm correct in assuming the risk I'll make some serious coin - once you been there it's hard to dismiss the emotion and fear of getting crushed while running in front of the train. But that is where I long to run.
And thanks for all the good stuff. It will be fun to see how much of that old Forest Gumption Henry has - can he last. I know I can.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
I agree with what you say, but would like to add:
Some stocks have pushed up, but not on a big base. Thus the market bounces or goes sideways along resistance. Hence the trading channel. It's direction trends up and pull backs have been fairly mild.
Bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war. The bulls have been winning as the market trends upward. Crude is down presently, however the consumer has not recovered from the summer high prices. It's going to take a while. That's the reason for the see-saw affect between crude and the market.
The end of October ends the worst 6 months. The trading channel is trending up. However we are at the top of the channel. There are several options, stay with the up trend (until stops are broken) or sell high, and buy in during a pull back. If you have long term options, staying in makes sense. For conservative short term options, it's capital preservation.
Being retired, my goal is to meet or exceed the TSP annuity (monthly payments + inflation) and retain all capital, with minimum risk. The fund that allows me to do this, is the G-fund. For capital preservation that's a hard fund to beat.
So when it comes to the tracker, don't compare me with the high risk rollers or the high risk traders. If I can't stay above the L-Income fund, I'll join it.
Birchtree
Well-known member
If we get a panic buy meltup tomorrow I'll turn into an adrenaline junkie. Not afraid to jump into Elephant grass, or swim with leeches, or stay out all night in the hole. All I need is my trusty p38, brother. My gut is telling me that it's now or never - pull the pin. Hey, what happened to the crow recipes. In my book it's all the way. I don't think I'll sleep tonight - wound tighter than a spring - like the market. Another "slick" ride to the top of the mountain. Spaf, I'll be watching to see how long you sit on that lilly pad - this seems like deja vue all over again.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I like to see early selling in the morning - it's a bull market characteristic. Most of the professional money managers that are on the side lines are worrying about one primary scenario - that this up leg will go 15% to 20% into December without their voluntary participation - they'll be forced to buy at much higher prices and provide the fuel to go even higher. And don't forget our friends across the pond - the euro buys stocks now with a 50% discount and a 33% discount if you use yen. We are the undervalued market of choice during a global slowdown.
robo
Well-known member
Spaf,
I'm with you Spaf! I try and post both Bullish and Bearish comments because both have good points... But I'm also very conservative and invest with minimum risk.
Birchtree,
Go get em Big Bull, but I don't sleep well when I'm 100% invested and the Market has had a extended run... S&P 1400 is coming!!!!!! I think we need a rest first...
Currently 100% G fund.. Not currently playing the F Fund.. I think it is also due a correction.
Good Investing to all...
fedgolfer
Well-known member
"Correction" or retracement and consolidation? I'm betting on an F fund retracement or consolidation to the 20 day MA.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The trend for the F-fund is showing an upward channel!
Consolidation: In technical analysis, the movement of an asset's price within a well-defined pattern or barrier of trading levels. Consolidation is generally regarded as a period of indecision, which ends when the price of the asset breaks beyond the restrictive barriers. Periods of consolidation can be found in charts covering any time interval (i.e. hours, days, etc.), and these periods can last for minutes, days, months or even years. Lengthy periods of consolidation are often known as a base.
Correction: refers to a drop in stock market activity or stock prices following a period of increases. A correction is a reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index. Corrections are generally temporary price declines, interrupting an uptrend in the market or asset.
Pullback: A falling back of a price from its peak. This type of price movement might be seen as a brief reversal of the prevailing upward trend, signaling a slight pause in upward momentum.
Retracement: is a reversal within a major price trend.
You know what that means!
Birchtree
Well-known member
Exactly! And the Mlk-man is on the lilly pad too. You know what this means Ferdinand - the pasture belongs to us. We don't have to share. No multicultrualism here buddy - you gain it you keep it. And we got a seasonally strong period of the election cycle right around the corner, you have to keep your bullish bias. This is a perfect set up for 100 Dow points this afternoon out of nowhere. It would be a classic maneuver. Snort.
mlk_man
Banned
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