Market Talk / September 24th - 30th

[fedgolfer]

Just talking out loud and trying to find confirmation from our "experts"... S&P seems to be taking the lead as of late. Based on its recent behavior of stair stepping up to the resistance on the upper price channel and then down to the support on the 20-day MA, it may be good to step out of the equities until the next good buying op... especially after the two-day upward swing. AGG is topped out and needs to swing back to its 20 day MA... but it keeps bucking the charts!!! Who's getting more defensive in the very short term?

 

[fedgolfer]

Just talking out loud and trying to find confirmation from our "experts"... S&P seems to be taking the lead as of late. Based on its recent behavior of stair stepping up to the resistance on the upper price channel and then down to the support on the 20-day MA, it may be good to step out of the equities until the next good buying op... especially after the two-day upward swing. AGG is topped out and needs to swing back to its 20 day MA... but it keeps bucking the charts!!! Who's getting more defensive in the very short term?

I should add, the S&P is showing the most predictable short term pattern/channel. Of course this means I just jinxed it and it will break.

 

[Birchtree]

You mean of course that it will break to the upside. There will be a lot of sore necks before this move is over - kinda like watching the Atlantis.

 

[fedgolfer]

You mean of course that it will break to the upside. There will be a lot of sore necks before this move is over - kinda like watching the Atlantis.

That's the confirmation I was looking for from the herd... SELL EUPHORIA!!! Just teasing.

 

[Birchtree]

Spaf,

I got two words for ya - cluck, cluck. If I'm wrong you can come back with - ouch, ouch.

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

I would dearly like to see some panic buying kick in today. The previous all-time high on the Dow Utilities was at 442.55 - we are nows at 432.54 up +2.75 so far on the day - this is positive for the future. Yes, I'm waiting for a panic situation. A few more participants have ventured over to the dark side of the C fund - but we got ample room. 1340 is the sweet spot, but only on the way to 1386.

 

[Show-me]

I would dearly like to see some panic selling kick in today. I'm happy to be in the G fund and it seems that the talking heads, analist (spelling wrong?), and anyone they put on the tube is trying to pump up the market. Economic data was crap this week and the market continues up on bad data and the words of the Dallas Fed Prez. Feels like a shell game to me.:notrust: Watch the birdie!:notrust: :nuts:

 

[FundSurfer]

Here is your chance to sock away some of those hard earned gains Birchy. You know that the likely hood the market will go straight up is slim to none. Sell now and wait for the inevitable drop to occur and then buy back in. It would not be like you were abandoning the C-fund, just taking a little vacation from the relationship. You know they say absence makes the heart grow fonder.

 

[The_Technician]

I would dearly like to see some panic buying kick in today. The previous all-time high on the Dow Utilities was at 442.55 - we are nows at 432.54 up +2.75 so far on the day - this is positive for the future. Yes, I'm waiting for a panic situation. A few more participants have ventured over to the dark side of the C fund - but we got ample room. 1340 is the sweet spot, but only on the way to 1386.

Are you selling to the buyers Birchy???? you sly dog you.....

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

'wall of worry' time...big divergence between large and small caps...either large caps are coming down to meet small caps or small caps are going up to meet large caps....I like the latter

 

[Birchtree]

Not doing any selling while momentum is racing. The market is not really looking at the world as we know it today. It is concentrating further out into the future where the market is the only omnipotent. That's why so many will end up missing a good portion of this leg up. The risk now is being out, not being in. I'm not taking the chance to get out for a few dollars round trip - nope I'm on board with good pricing and we'll see how far the paid up ticket will go. Remember from now on most of the tickets to play will cost more and more. Just like the realestate game. Snort.

 

[James48843]

Nice run up here-- I'm thinking of possibly taking some profits soon as well and moving a little out.
Seems when a lot of others are moving more and more in, it's time to look at the big picture and see if I am ahead of the last time I moved- and if ahead enough, is it time to start watching very carefully for the jumping off the train point.

I think we'll be there very soon - but for now riding it up is great.

 

[ATCJeff]

Nice run up here-- I'm thinking of possibly taking some profits soon as well and moving a little out.
Seems when a lot of others are moving more and more in, it's time to look at the big picture and see if I am ahead of the last time I moved- and if ahead enough, is it time to start watching very carefully for the jumping off the train point.

I think we'll be there very soon - but for now riding it up is great.

You know the commercial for Choice VISA....

Birchy is the father pushing people off the train....watch out James..

Snort


Jeff

 

[Birchtree]

ATCJeff,

I like that, have we met previously? You catch on real fast. The bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, keep the majority from participating. I think it's working.

Dennis - permabull#1

 

[Birchtree]

Unfortunately this is a selfish approach but I don't write the creeds. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. It's alot more difficult and emotional to be a bull. A bear has a set amount he can loose - everything invested for example. A bull has the anxiety of not knowing exactly how much he can gain because the top is unlimited. Figure that one out. And there will be many fake outs and head trips to keep the uninitiated off guard. I personally don't shake off very easily.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP​

Catfish Channel​

Daily Edition
September 27, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks battle lube.

Con-Yak...................................Lube rising on fear of OPEC cuts.

Jester-Yak................................A doji star of indecision.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1336.59, up +0.25.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.171, falling.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+7.943/6.615, holding divergence.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............up at +1.327.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........94.86, rising.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 68.63 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................62.96, up +1.95
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1323. Trail: 1310.

 

[Show-me]

Phrase of the day................Window Dressing. (shell game)

Phrase of the day................Window Dressing. (shell game)

A strategy used by mutual fund and portfolio managers near the year or quarter end to improve the appearance of the portfolio/fund performance before presenting it to clients or shareholders.

Performance reports and a list of the holdings in a mutual fund are usually sent to clients every quarter. To window dress, the fund manager will sell stocks with large losses and purchase high flying stocks near the end of the quarter. These securities are then reported as part of the fund's holdings.

Another variation of window dressing is investing in stocks that don't meet the style of the mutual fund. For example, a precious metals fund might invest in stocks that are in a hot sector at the time, disguising the fund's holdings, so clients really have no idea what they are paying for.

Window dressing may make a fund appear more attractive, but you can't hide poor performance for long.

Funny how oil stocks went higher as the price of oil droped. Buying up the window dressing cheap.

 

[Birchtree]

For the month ending September 15, 2006, total short interest on the NYSE increased approximately 100 million shares to 9.74 billion shares - the fourth consecutive month that it has made a new all-time high. With the S&P 500 the most under-valued of anytime in the last 30 years now must be the time for bear comeuppance. Wall Stree will run red for months - ain't that great.

 

[robo]

Reports today indicated sales of housing is up, but it looks like incentives and cheaper prices are the reason... Lower rates also a factor...

Soft or Hard landing? We wait for Ben Obi-Wan Kenobi to perform some magic.

TO MUCH YELLING ON CNBC!!!!

Sell when they are YELLING and BUY when they are CRYING!!!


http://www.safehaven.com/article-5978.htm

 

[robo]

Stocks: Corraling the Cattle

Sometimes certain phrases stick in your mind and this market reminds us of a favorite phrase of an investor/trader we knew many years ago. This investor had been a Texas rancher before trading his Stetson for the comfort of an air-conditioned Fidelity trading office. We could always tell when the market was ripe for a correction, or worse, when we walked into the office, asked him how the market was doing and he replied, "They've rounded up the cattle and put them in the corral." The meaning was unmistakable: the insiders had finally convinced the public to buy shares. Needless to say, the free lunch the public thought they were getting was going to be on them -- literally!

You see, when cattle are prepared for slaughter, they are put in a corral in a feedlot and fattened up to put extra pounds on so they will bring extra profits.

We can just hear that old rancher saying, "They're going to be ready for slaughter any day now!"

The market struggled to make gains on Wednesday. The media circus put on by CNBC was reminiscent of past circuses, like NASDAQ 5000 -- now at less than half that figure. With all the focus on a specific figure -- Dow 11,722 this time around -- one can only hope they get their wish before the cattle are fat enough to slaughter.

We're now nearing the end of the quarterly Window Dressing period when money managers pump up prices to make it look like they did a better job at making money than they really did. Yes, some of those cattle are looking nice and plump now!