Market Talk / Nov. 27 - Dec. 3

[tsptalk]

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Greg wrote:

The I-fund should be down 3 cents.

I'd be surprised if it's downafter the dollar's fall today.Is this a formula you use?

 

[robo]

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Morning comments before the open from a Tech:

We're due for at least a correction, but there's plenty of room on the upside.



[align=left]AT A GLANCE: Considering the long string of consecutive advances by the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, a pullback this week is inevitable. However, there are many indicators suggesting that considerable room remains above for further advances before the year ends. The worst case scenario for the balance of 2005, barring an external negative event, is likely to be a test of the 200 day moving average.[/align]
I think it is more significant to realize that sharp rallies and declines (especially rallies) are very rarely reversed without an extended period of ups and downs occurring first. For example, when the 4.2% decline ended on October 17 with the S&P at 1190.10, it traded up and down between 1177 and 1199 twice during the next two weeks before there was any significant change. Without an external traumatic event I expect the market to be confined within a trading range above 1200 for the rest of the year as the worst-case scenario, in the best case it will reach a new high a few percent above Friday's close.



[align=left][/align]

The Dow has its work cut out for it. It stalled within nine points of its March 4 high at 10940.55, and is not likely to close above it without a rest of a day or two first. The Dow was the only one of the three major indices that failed to reach a four-year high, and such a high would be especially significant since it would confirm the high reached by the Dow Transportation Index, as is required for Dow Theory buy signal to be declared.

The public is still biggest factor in short selling on the NYSE, another finding that suggests that there is more room to go on the upside. We still must consider these data tentatively in view of the long and steady decline in specialist short sales, but similar peaks occurred before market highs were reached in the past.

 

[Greg]

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tsptalk wrote:

Greg wrote:

The I-fund should be down 3 cents.

I'd be surprised if it's downafter the dollar's fall today.Is this a formula you use?

It should have been down $.03 today. They overpriced it by 8 cents. They will have to underprice it tomorrow to get back to the right price.

 

[robo]

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Closing Comment

The SPX has now broken two VST (very short term)trend lines. A more important one lies about 4-5 points below where we closed. Should we make it to that level tomorrow, the trend line should provide at least temporary support, especially with the hourly indicators now very oversold. But if that trend line is broken, the next support level would be the former highs of 1243-1245.

If, on the other hand we hold at or above today's low, we could generate a rally which will test the recent high of 1270.

The A/D had its worst performance in 2 weeks, but it was not quite enough to give a decisive sell signal at the close.

41.20 on the QQQQ continues to be a very important level for the market, and if broken could signal much more weakness directly ahead.

Tomorrow should clarify the near-term.

 

[Wheels]

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It should have been down $.03 today. They overpriced it by 8 cents. They will have to underprice it tomorrow to get back to the right price.

It was priced exactly right. Both the EFA and the MSCI fundswere up .26% today (a pretty rare occurence) so no matter which marker you use the I fund should have been up about 5 cents today. To repeat what Tom said, what are you using that shows the I fund down today?

Dave

<><

 

[Greg]

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Wheels wrote:

It was priced exactly right.

(Unless there was a dividend paid out) I stand by my statement that it was overpriced $.08. We're see tomorrow if it's not 8 cents lower than where you think it should be. BTW, I will be happy if they let us keep this 0.5% because I'm 31% I.

 

[Birchtree]

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While many participants are concerned about the arrival of a short term pullback, I'm going to try and stay focused on the longer term bull market. When my next financial objective is realized, I plan to begin buying many more stocks for my portfolio. I'm actually building my current list in preparation for when the day dawns - probably in Jan'06. So I have to concentrate on the general direction as well as the forward stability of individual issues. Where is that top? Two years or maybe three years down the road - maybe September'06. I will continue to hold the C fund for the majority of the ride with TSP. I think we will see more instances of volatility with the S fund with sharp snap backs. Today was all related to the small cap energy sector.

Dennis-perma bull #2

 

[Skip]

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waiting for the smoke to clear on the indexes ?

Here is IBD's top 100 index to play with.... Made alot of money with their screen of the market... Pick your buy points as some are over extended as well,but growing companies...


Skip
ps might not display right as its wide in preview...



Investor's Business Daily 100
Data as of 11/25/2005 market close

% Off Relative Annual EPS Last Qtr EPS Next Qtr EPS Last Qtr Sales Pretax Management Qtrs of Rising
Rank Company Symbol Price High EPS Rtg Strength Rtg Est % Chg % Chg % Chg % Chg ROE Margin Own % Sponsorship

1 GOOGLE INC GOOG 423.48 -1.23 99 98 +113.45 +121 +88 +96 42.69 35.43 4 4
2 CUTERA INC CUTR 39.42 -1.52 98 99 +183.87 +286 +88 +49 9.85 10.99 39 3
3 HANSEN NATURAL CORP HANS 76.66 +2.21 98 99 +180.46 +246 +97 +100 43.55 18.82 26 9
4 NEOWARE SYSTEMS INC NWRE 22.60 +4.24 98 99 +27.78 +70 +38 +63 10.2 15.97 5 0
5 TALX CORP TALX 43.44 -3.34 99 97 +50 +78 +41 +32 12.95 19.2 8 4
6 TOWER GROUP INC TWGP 20.98 -0.1 99 97 +117.02 +115 +88 +127 12.67 13.67 15 0
7 HI TECH PHARMACAL HITK 41.06 -2.47 98 98 +9.38 +60 +11 +27 12.15 19.29 34 0
8 QUALITY SYSTEMS INC QSII 87.73 -1.63 98 98 +39.34 +54 +41 +39 26.04 28.65 39 9
9 APPLE COMPUTER INC AAPL 69.66 +0.17 98 97 +24.31 +171 +43 +57 6.24 -- 2 1
10 LIHIR GOLD LTD ADS LIHRY 34.40 +1.71 98 98 -98.83 +617 -- +20 7.83 -- -- 0
11 CHINA MEDICAL TECH ADS CMED 36.12 -15.21 97 99 -- +38 -- +86 60.82 59.89 -- 0
12 BENTLEY PHARMACEUTICALS BNT 18.44 0 98 98 +84 +83 +56 +30 6.86 14.3 26 2
13 CITI TRENDS INC CTRN 34.75 -9.41 98 98 -- +800 +318 +52 30.07 -- -- 1
14 CAVCO INDUSTRIES INC CVCO 38.79 -13.7 99 94 +34.25 +73 +24 +22 9.29 10.04 7 1
15 RANGE RESOURCES CORP RRC 35.97 -12.27 99 92 +109.72 +105 +145 +65 12.26 25.37 3 1
16 U S A TRUCK INC USAK 27.24 -8.87 99 94 +94.94 +82 +25 +23 9.12 3.92 45 3
17 JOY GLOBAL INC JOYG 50.08 -4.32 99 92 +178.87 +185 +86 +37 13.89 6.45 2 0
18 MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP MRVL 56.94 -3.2 99 94 +61.9 +64 +71 +34 10.69 22.74 23 0
19 CERADYNE INC CRDN 45.22 -3.27 98 96 +54.24 +77 +44 +68 26.12 21.02 8 1
20 TENARIS SA ADR TS 110.50 -23.74 98 95 +53.83 +125 -30 +63 16.12 -- 60 0
21 EDGE PETROLEUM CORP EPEX 23.80 -16.46 98 94 +60 +174 +89 +123 13.53 38.01 7 1
22 SHINHAN FINANCIAL GP ADR SHG 77.88 -1.26 98 94 +63.91 +65 -- +24 7.98 -- -- 1
23 BUILDING MATERIALS HLDG BMHC 80.09 -19.26 97 95 +132.56 +118 +81 +39 18.01 4.52 7 10
24 CHICOS FAS INC CHS 44.34 -4.27 97 95 +32.5 +35 +33 +35 30.85 21.63 2 3
25 JOS A BANK CLOTHIERS INC JOSB 48.92 -3.66 97 95 +27.91 +54 +41 +20 24.39 10.83 12 0
26 BANCOLOMBIA SA ADS CIB 26.08 -5.16 96 96 +17.2 +27 -- +93 30.17 35.67 -- 1
27 G F I GROUP INC GFIG 45.25 -4.03 96 96 +65.09 +30 +75 +31 56.81 12.14 74 2
28 DYNAMIC MATERIALS CORP BOOM 22.49 -18.16 95 97 +80.49 +136 -5 +68 24.69 11.73 7 4
29 CREDO PETROLEUM CORP CRED 19.14 -7.89 95 97 -- +67 -- +50 18.93 49.16 24 0
30 C B RICHARD ELLIS GROUP CBG 55.75 -2.71 99 95 +69.09 +88 +21 +29 26.41 6.83 31 5
31 GILEAD SCIENCES INC GILD 52.12 -7.77 98 91 +70.53 +52 +100 +51 30.6 48.39 3 0
32 COLDWATER CREEK INC CWTR 32.58 -5.26 97 93 +47.92 +33 +44 +26 18.41 8.22 42 9
33 GOL INTELLIGENT AIRLINES GOL 42.07 -5.55 97 93 +80.92 +66 +96 +73 52.93 27.78 -- 0
34 OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL OIS 33.33 -15.02 97 91 +107.41 +94 +106 +57 10.96 9.14 19 1
35 GENENTECH INC DNA 94.97 -4.02 96 94 +54.22 +46 +57 +46 13.45 30.34 1 2
36 CAL DIVE INTERNATIONAL CDIS 72.33 -4.75 95 94 +65.71 +78 +48 +59 19.57 23.85 8 0
37 COMTECH TELECOMM CORP CMTL 43.09 -4.01 95 95 +11.27 +56 +50 +66 21.62 17.36 5 5
38 ALCON INC ACL 144.27 -2.32 95 95 +37.79 +53 +37 +12 43.09 28.76 -- 0
39 CHICAGO MERCANTILE XCHNG CME 371.30 -6.45 94 97 +37.77 +29 +32 +27 31.92 48.84 2 11
40 EXPRESS SCRIPTS INC ESRX 79.89 -4.4 94 98 +32.47 +34 +37 +2 25.11 3.88 3 3
41 SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO SWN 33.73 -19.31 93 98 +38.24 +73 +36 +46 25.32 33.02 6 11
42 STERLING CONSTRUCTION CO STV 20.42 -27.97 92 99 -- +211 -- +52 20.48 2.73 36 1
43 MOTOROLA INC MOT 24.08 -3.64 99 89 +40 +76 +26 +26 15.22 10.38 1 2
44 CELADON GROUP CLDN 27.75 -2.84 98 92 +39.84 +67 +52 +13 13.88 5.03 11 1
45 HALLIBURTON COMPANY HAL 63.07 -9.62 98 90 +106.71 +110 +85 +6 20.22 5.27 1 1
46 FORDING CANADIAN COAL TR FDG 38.76 -12.41 98 86 +298.36 +482 +207 +98 66.43 14.04 1 0
47 STANDARD MICROSYSTEMS SMSC 29.07 -7.45 97 92 +217.14 +317 +999 +58 2.57 3.66 5 1
48 CARTERS INC CRI 59.69 -9.08 97 91 +44.91 +65 +30 +48 16.66 10.1 10 7
49 CHEMED CORPORATION CHE 49.92 -3.37 97 90 +51.2 +53 +34 +16 11.81 7.34 7 0
50 CREDICORP LTD BAP 27.27 -10.3 96 94 +37.8 +46 +32 +6 9.29 -- -- 0
51 BLACKROCK INC CL A BLK 108.90 -1.9 95 92 +44.07 +84 +47 +76 24 38.69 6 0
52 PAR TECHNOLOGY CORP PTC 31.77 -17.27 94 97 +52.46 +37 +45 +22 9.49 5.35 50 4
53 ATLAS AMERICA INC ATLS 55.03 -3.88 94 94 +28.13 +25 +23 +122 24.29 10.7 1 3
54 C H ROBINSON WORLDWIDE CHRW 40.72 -2.35 94 93 +41.25 +41 +41 +32 24.09 5.21 8 0
55 GRANT PRIDECO INC GRP 37.57 -9.45 94 93 +214.81 +227 +126 +43 10.41 10.86 2 5
56 BANCO ITAU HLDG SA ADR ITU 25.83 -2.71 94 95 +13.45 +96 -- +107 36.84 -- -- 0
57 DIGITAL INSIGHT CORP DGIN 32.93 -0.96 93 97 +33.85 +35 +41 +12 7.32 19.75 4 2
58 SERACARE LIFE SCIENCES SRLS 20.66 -10.17 93 95 +51.11 +60 +13 +122 12.56 18.97 21 2
59 E O G RESOURCES INC EOG 68.89 -12.1 93 92 +96.51 +97 +119 +57 24.18 40.77 1 7
60 SANDISK CORP SNDK 51.93 -20.71 92 98 +32.64 +90 +40 +45 15.43 23.81 5 1
61 LO JACK CORP LOJN 27.33 -0.04 91 98 +42.19 +43 +17 +37 22.33 11.7 12 9
62 LUFKIN INDUSTRIES INC LUFK 44.40 -14.45 91 96 +183.65 +117 +206 +29 7.26 6.37 10 0
63 CHARLES & COLVARD LTD CTHR 29.70 -2.56 90 99 +272.73 +650 +167 +118 3.53 13.28 15 3
64 BANCO BRADESCO SA ADR BBD 61.00 -2.4 89 98 +92.11 +145 -- +2 19.96 -- -- 0
65 BEAZER HOMES U S A INC BZH 69.89 -5.29 99 90 +15.85 +98 +30 +50 21.19 13.5 4 1
66 URBAN OUTFITTERS INC URBN 31.75 -5.98 98 88 +50 +47 +56 +33 26.14 18.14 34 0
67 MIDDLEBY CORP MIDD 78.36 -1.8 97 90 +37.72 +65 +10 +15 82.75 17.57 18 1
68 HIBBETT SPORTING GOODS HIBB 30.03 -3.04 96 94 +38.03 +41 +26 +20 20.08 10.57 2 0
69 PSYCHIATRIC SOLUTIONS PSYS 55.26 -7.73 96 92 +44.35 +42 +29 +72 12.32 6.93 3 1
70 COVENTRY HEALTH CARE INC CVH 59.02 -2.14 96 91 +26.21 +27 +18 +26 31.49 9.92 3 3
71 WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP INT 34.60 -7.93 96 87 +29.03 +91 -8 +47 16.88 0.64 10 0
72 L K Q CORP LKQX 33.19 -4.87 95 94 +31.52 +40 +14 +26 10.88 7.97 27 0
73 CASCADE CORP CAE 49.90 -1.95 95 91 +51.64 +65 +30 +24 13.49 11.1 12 0
74 COMPUTER PROGRAMS & SYS CPSI 38.64 -14.85 95 90 +95.52 +65 +31 +28 26.37 14.16 27 0
75 COMP VALE DO RIO ADR RIO 43.59 -2.96 92 93 +115.31 +51 -- +50 37.52 33.13 -- 2
76 GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR INC GIL 37.25 -6.36 90 97 +39.09 +30 +22 +18 22.11 11.87 1 8
77 CERNER CORP CERN 95.32 -3.24 90 95 +25.43 +22 +21 +28 11.88 11.68 19 0
78 QUIDEL CORP QDEL 14.45 -8.25 88 99 +400 +118 +16 +47 1.76 2.01 4 0
79 RADIATION THERAPY SVCS RTSX 36.57 -3.76 89 98 +12.63 +27 +14 +38 34.37 19.1 51 3
80 J 2 GLOBAL COMMUNICATION JCOM 47.15 -1.71 98 88 +48.03 +53 +41 +36 26.03 44.4 12 0
81 PHILADELPHIA CONS HLDGS PHLY 97.80 -2.35 97 88 +89.89 +999 +29 +32 13.97 14.43 20 0
82 PANERA BREAD CO CL A PNRA 67.99 -3.18 97 87 +29.6 +32 +7 +31 17.73 12.68 7 0
83 SOCIEDAD QUIMICA Y MINRA SQM 120.11 -11.55 96 93 +57.09 +24 -- -- 5.36 -- -- 0
84 X T O ENERGY INC XTO 40.80 -13.67 96 85 +77.33 +93 +114 +90 28.34 47.59 8 0
85 WEBSENSE INC WBSN 63.76 -4.03 96 85 +41.28 +41 +27 +32 17.63 36.64 4 0
86 TEAM INC TMI 24.97 -3.78 95 92 +70 +100 +131 +75 13.88 5.05 32 1
87 OPTIONSXPRESS HLDGS INC OXPS 24.46 +2.34 95 94 +36.36 +122 +47 +70 99 56.11 64 1
88 BLUE NILE INC NILE 41.96 -5.39 94 93 +33.93 +44 +33 +24 0 9.23 16 0
89 RESMED INC RMD 40.81 -4.67 94 89 +20.19 +33 +19 +45 17.73 25.45 4&

 

[JOVARN]

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Skip. Your list brought back memories. My wife worked for

STANDARD MICROSYSTEMS in NY in 1974 when they employeed 25 people.

 

[The_Technician]

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Good response this morning on the stocks....I speculate that they will die down later today and possibly get a negative growth by this afternoon today thru tomorrow.....

if the Wilshire 4500 gets into the 520's, I would think that it has come close to bottoming out and could be a good time to get back into the S fund...it could be early next week before that happens...

The F fund sure is outperforming the G...looks like waiting for it to come down some is fruitless....today could be a good day to move into it until the other funds settle some...

:dude:

 

[Greg]

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When the share prices come out tonight, the I-fund should be $16.86 (this is assuming that yesterday's 0.5% overpricing was just a fudge that will be corrected today and NOT a permanent increase due to dividend distribution).

 

[Mike]

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I wonder how often the dividends hit these funds. I get a monthly one on my bond fund outside TSP, but the stock fund dividends only come about twice per year, I think.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 29, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox generally lower as secondary movement takes shape.

Train in station, schedule not posted!

Elsewhere:........Jester spoke: To far to fast, now it's overbought, the gravestone has been cast!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1257.48, up +0.02
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.207, dn
RSI (strength) at...........65.6, dn
MACD (trend)....bullish
S-STO (signal)...bearish
P-SAR (signal)...bullish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............56.50 dn -0.86

Tea Leaves:....................Yellow (market correction)


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1256, Trail: 1244.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Wheels]

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Greg wrote:

When the share prices come out tonight, the I-fund should be $16.86 (this is assuming that yesterday's 0.5% overpricing was just a fudge that will be corrected today and NOT a permanent increase due to dividend distribution).

You are confusing me Greg. The MSCI EAFE was down .157%. So the I fund price was correct at 16.87. This is within a penny of your estimate of 16.86 but there was no overprice yesterday and no correction today. No fudge either day as you say. Your saying that without the correction, today's price would have been much lower. Where are you getting that from?

Dave

<><

 

[Greg]

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[tsptalk]

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I'd say that is an accurate assessment of yesterday. There were a couple of good economic reports in the morning that the emotional money jumped on. Later the smart money seemed to takeprofits.

 

[The_Technician]

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The market seems to be firming up earlier than expected....today could be the day that it turns its head to go up...... but it could still go either way for a couple of days....

:dude:

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

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yikes...wilshire held above monday's low,I thought might be low fora few day consolidation.still might but giving me the vegas jitters..standing aside with 60 g and 40 s. (not posted for tracking purposes)

 

[coolhand]

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FUTURESTRADER wrote:

yikes...wilshire held above monday's low,I thought might be low fora few day consolidation.still might but giving me the vegas jitters..standing aside with 60 g and 40 s. (not posted for tracking purposes)

my thought is that since the prel gdp came in somewhat hot, small/mid caps still look good. perhaps some fund flows left large caps seeking larger gains.

100% g myself and waiting like a coiled cobra.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Nov. 30, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox mixed, mainly lower as overbought correction continues.

Train backing up to water tower.

Elsewhere:.......Jester spoke: Eye the RSI.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1249.48, dn -8.00
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.191, dn
RSI (strength) at...........59.4, dn
MACD (trend)....-------
S-STO (signal)...bearish
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............57.32 up +0.82

Tea Leaves:....................Red (market correction)


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1256 [broken], Trail: 1244.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.