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Market Talk / Nov. 27 - Dec. 3
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
imported post
The markets showed signs of further weakness in spite of the higher than expected preliminary number for GDP (Q3) at 4.3%.The Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 showed some relative strength versus the S&P 500.
Wecould seenewmoney buying due to the start of a new month tomorrowand Friday. This couldpower the markets higherto test the 1270's on the S&P again.
We've reached the bottom of a short-termchannel on the SPX, so this could offer some support.... The odds favor the Bulls the next couple of days.... However, lots of Bears coming out of hibernation for a xmas SHORTING party.... Keep your guard up!!!!
The markets showed signs of further weakness in spite of the higher than expected preliminary number for GDP (Q3) at 4.3%.The Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 showed some relative strength versus the S&P 500.
Wecould seenewmoney buying due to the start of a new month tomorrowand Friday. This couldpower the markets higherto test the 1270's on the S&P again.
We've reached the bottom of a short-termchannel on the SPX, so this could offer some support.... The odds favor the Bulls the next couple of days.... However, lots of Bears coming out of hibernation for a xmas SHORTING party.... Keep your guard up!!!!
imported post
OK here is the scoop
Skip
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Downside Break[/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Dow trades within large trading range, now awaiting breakout.[/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]
From prior commentary, "...A downside break from the trading range at 10,880 will indicate a larger pull-back than expected, but as long as the Dow remains above 10,700, continued long term strength should remain in tact..." [/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow held within the boundaries of the large trading range throughout much of the morning today, but eventually broke support at 10,880, which unleashed a steady decline to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow closed the day lower by 82 points and continues to extend the near-term pull-back from the November highs at 10,950. We continue to maintain that the Dow should remain strong within the current uptrend as long as 10,700 remains in tact. In fact, even if the Dow pulled back to the 10,700 level, it wouldn't even constitute a 38% Fibonacci retracement from the October lows, which is quite a shallow pull-back. For the index to reach 38%, it must get to 10,660, which means the Dow is still in a healthy uptrend. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]However, near-term direction is down and will continue to be down as long as the index remains beneath 10,900. Look for a continuation pattern to form at the current lows to indicate that continued weakness will be seen. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow traded around the 10,850 fulcrum late in the session, but eventually broke it to the downside, as seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Look for continued weakness beneath this level tomorrow morning. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we entered the market Short at 10,875 today and are still in the trade with a current profit of 69 points. We will hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market, but will hold off on additional Shorts. We will hold off on Longs, unless 10,960 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]NASDAQ & S&P [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The NASDAQ and S&P closed the session at the lows of the day, further extending the current decline. Look for possible continuation patterns to form to near-term direction. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow ended the day sharply lower after breaking the large trading range to the downside early in the session. The index looks primed to extend the current decline, but could find 'legs' in the 10,700 zone before another burst of strength is finally seen. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com [/font]
OK here is the scoop
Skip
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Downside Break[/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Dow trades within large trading range, now awaiting breakout.[/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]
From prior commentary, "...A downside break from the trading range at 10,880 will indicate a larger pull-back than expected, but as long as the Dow remains above 10,700, continued long term strength should remain in tact..." [/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow held within the boundaries of the large trading range throughout much of the morning today, but eventually broke support at 10,880, which unleashed a steady decline to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow closed the day lower by 82 points and continues to extend the near-term pull-back from the November highs at 10,950. We continue to maintain that the Dow should remain strong within the current uptrend as long as 10,700 remains in tact. In fact, even if the Dow pulled back to the 10,700 level, it wouldn't even constitute a 38% Fibonacci retracement from the October lows, which is quite a shallow pull-back. For the index to reach 38%, it must get to 10,660, which means the Dow is still in a healthy uptrend. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]However, near-term direction is down and will continue to be down as long as the index remains beneath 10,900. Look for a continuation pattern to form at the current lows to indicate that continued weakness will be seen. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow traded around the 10,850 fulcrum late in the session, but eventually broke it to the downside, as seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Look for continued weakness beneath this level tomorrow morning. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term Dow [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we entered the market Short at 10,875 today and are still in the trade with a current profit of 69 points. We will hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market, but will hold off on additional Shorts. We will hold off on Longs, unless 10,960 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]NASDAQ & S&P [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The NASDAQ and S&P closed the session at the lows of the day, further extending the current decline. Look for possible continuation patterns to form to near-term direction. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The Dow ended the day sharply lower after breaking the large trading range to the downside early in the session. The index looks primed to extend the current decline, but could find 'legs' in the 10,700 zone before another burst of strength is finally seen. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com [/font]
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
C fund down today because S&P boots Calpine for Genworth.
GDP at 4.3% looking for 4.0% next quarter. Goldilocks is back with benign news on inflation.
Both the NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCO's are currently suggesting that it will be several more weeks before an important dip back below the zero line will be seen. The A/D line was not depressed today.
Last week the S&P's relative strength index (RSI) touched its highest level this calendar year. In fact, the RSI notched its best levels since mid-November 2004, or about this time last year. As a reference point, from those mid-Novembrer 2004 RSI readings, the S&P itself still had three and a half months before it would touch its peak. So again, the record RSI reading confirms the current breakout.
The market futures are starting to turn positive this evening. I wish the talking heads would stop saying we are still in a secular bear market. I just don't think that is the case. Show me a back to back secular bull market - please.
C fund down today because S&P boots Calpine for Genworth.
GDP at 4.3% looking for 4.0% next quarter. Goldilocks is back with benign news on inflation.
Both the NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCO's are currently suggesting that it will be several more weeks before an important dip back below the zero line will be seen. The A/D line was not depressed today.
Last week the S&P's relative strength index (RSI) touched its highest level this calendar year. In fact, the RSI notched its best levels since mid-November 2004, or about this time last year. As a reference point, from those mid-Novembrer 2004 RSI readings, the S&P itself still had three and a half months before it would touch its peak. So again, the record RSI reading confirms the current breakout.
The market futures are starting to turn positive this evening. I wish the talking heads would stop saying we are still in a secular bear market. I just don't think that is the case. Show me a back to back secular bull market - please.
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Comments from a Trader:
I must admit, I am not smart enough to have devised these ridiculously simple trading rules--a great trader was kind enough to give them to me over 15 years ago. However, I will tell you--they work. If you follow these rules, breaking them as infrequently as possible, you will make money year in and year out, some years better than others, some years worse--but you will make money. The rules are simple. Adherence to the rules is difficult.
"Old Rules...but Very Good Rules"
If I've learned anything in my 17 years of trading, I've learned that the simple methods work best. Those who need to rely upon complex stochastics, linear weighted moving averages, smoothing techniques, fibonacci numbers etc., usually find that they have so many things rolling around in their heads that they cannot make a rational decision. One technique says buy; another says sell. Another says sit tight while another says add to the trade. It sounds like a cliché, but simple methods work best.
Comments from a Trader:
I must admit, I am not smart enough to have devised these ridiculously simple trading rules--a great trader was kind enough to give them to me over 15 years ago. However, I will tell you--they work. If you follow these rules, breaking them as infrequently as possible, you will make money year in and year out, some years better than others, some years worse--but you will make money. The rules are simple. Adherence to the rules is difficult.
"Old Rules...but Very Good Rules"
If I've learned anything in my 17 years of trading, I've learned that the simple methods work best. Those who need to rely upon complex stochastics, linear weighted moving averages, smoothing techniques, fibonacci numbers etc., usually find that they have so many things rolling around in their heads that they cannot make a rational decision. One technique says buy; another says sell. Another says sit tight while another says add to the trade. It sounds like a cliché, but simple methods work best.
- The first and most important rule is - in bull markets, one is supposed to be long. This may sound obvious, but how many of us have sold the first rally in every bull market, saying that the market has moved too far, too fast. I have before, and I suspect I'll do it again at some point in the future. Thus, we've not enjoyed the profits that should have accrued to us for our initial bullish outlook, but have actually lost money while being short. In a bull market, one can only be long or on the sidelines. Remember, not having a position is a position.
- Buy that which is showing strength - sell that which is showing weakness. The public continues to buy when prices have fallen. The professional buys because prices have rallied. This difference may not sound logical, but buying strength works. The rule of survival is not to "buy low, sell high", but to "buy higher and sell higher". Furthermore, when comparing various stocks within a group, buy only the strongest and sell the weakest.
- When putting on a trade, enter it as if it has the potential to be the biggest trade of the year. Don't enter a trade until it has been well thought out, a campaign has been devised for adding to the trade, and contingency plans set for exiting the trade.
- On minor corrections against the major trend, add to trades. In bull markets, add to the trade on minor corrections back into support levels. In bear markets, add on corrections into resistance. Use the 33-50% corrections level of the previous movement or the proper moving average as a first point in which to add.
- Be patient. If a trade is missed, wait for a correction to occur before putting the trade on.
- Be patient. Once a trade is put on, allow it time to develop and give it time to create the profits you expected.
- Be patient. The old adage that "you never go broke taking a profit" is maybe the most worthless piece of advice ever given. Taking small profits is the surest way to ultimate loss I can think of, for small profits are never allowed to develop into enormous profits. The real money in trading is made from the one, two or three large trades that develop each year. You must develop the ability to patiently stay with winning trades to allow them to develop into that sort of trade.
- Be patient. Once a trade is put on, give it time to work; give it time to insulate itself from random noise; give it time for others to see the merit of what you saw earlier than they.
- Be impatient. As always, small loses and quick losses are the best losses. It is not the loss of money that is important. Rather, it is the mental capital that is used up when you sit with a losing trade that is important.
- Never, ever under any condition, add to a losing trade, or "average" into a position. If you are buying, then each new buy price must be higher than the previous buy price. If you are selling, then each new selling price must be lower. This rule is to be adhered to without question.
- Do more of what is working for you, and less of what's not. Each day, look at the various positions you are holding, and try to add to the trade that has the most profit while subtracting from that trade that is either unprofitable or is showing the smallest profit. This is the basis of the old adage, "let your profits run."
- Don't trade until the technicals and the fundamentals both agree. This rule makes pure technicians cringe. I don't care! I will not trade until I am sure that the simple technical rules I follow, and my fundamental analyses, are running in tandem. Then I can act with authority, and with certainty, and patiently sit tight.
- When sharp losses in equity are experienced, take time off. Close all trades and stop trading for several days. The mind can play games with itself following sharp, quick losses. The urge "to get the money back" is extreme, and should not be given in to.
- When trading well, trade somewhat larger. We all experience those incredible periods of time when all of our trades are profitable. When that happens, trade aggressively and trade larger. We must make our proverbial "hay" when the sun does shine.
- When adding to a trade, add only 1/4 to 1/2 as much as currently held. That is, if you are holding 400 shares of a stock, at the next point at which to add, add no more than 100 or 200 shares. That moves the average price of your holdings less than half of the distance moved, thus allowing you to sit through 50% corrections without touching your average price.
- Think like a guerrilla warrior. We wish to fight on the side of the market that is winning, not wasting our time and capital on futile efforts to gain fame by buying the lows or selling the highs of some market movement. Our duty is to earn profits by fighting alongside the winning forces. If neither side is winning, then we don't need to fight at all.
- Markets form their tops in violence; markets form their lows in quiet conditions. The final 10% of the time of a bull run will usually encompass 50% or more of the price movement. Thus, the first 50% of the price movement will take 90% of the time and will require the most backing and filling and will be far more difficult to trade than the last 50%.
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Tom wrote:
Tom wrote:
The Smart Money Indicator (bright blue line) fell 89 points to a new 3-1/2 year low as a result of a 56 point advance in the first 30 minutes of trading, and a 33 point closing hour decline. This continues to be a major negative clouding the long term picture and supporting a decline that has been typical of the second year of the four-year Presidential cycle.
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
U know I have been getting dates around the first of Dec for some time... Tom you have been getting bad vibes on the first week of Dec right.....like the 3rd thru the 8th...that something could happen at that time.....
But the interesting thing is, there are positives for a jump up in the markets, oil, increase opportunities for profits in an ever increasing positive environment for business, and so forth.....while at the same time, consumer spending could be on the fall.......its over 2/3'rds of our economy......how did we ever get this way?????
Technically, I could see the S fund making a jump up while I could see the C fund take a hit....but in this situation it could go various ways....it always could....:?
Then there is the end of year tax considerations.....if there is a sell off for tax purposes then we should be getting it in the first week of Dec.....:X I have suspected that for over a month and kinda have put it aside for the time being....
The only way we are every going to find out is to wait it out....:^
:dude:
U know I have been getting dates around the first of Dec for some time... Tom you have been getting bad vibes on the first week of Dec right.....like the 3rd thru the 8th...that something could happen at that time.....
But the interesting thing is, there are positives for a jump up in the markets, oil, increase opportunities for profits in an ever increasing positive environment for business, and so forth.....while at the same time, consumer spending could be on the fall.......its over 2/3'rds of our economy......how did we ever get this way?????
Technically, I could see the S fund making a jump up while I could see the C fund take a hit....but in this situation it could go various ways....it always could....:?
Then there is the end of year tax considerations.....if there is a sell off for tax purposes then we should be getting it in the first week of Dec.....:X I have suspected that for over a month and kinda have put it aside for the time being....
The only way we are every going to find out is to wait it out....:^
:dude:
.
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
I'm thinking they will sell early in Jan....this is due to not having to pay taxes right away after making a profit at the end of this year/quarter....any opinions.....
:dude:
I'm thinking they will sell early in Jan....this is due to not having to pay taxes right away after making a profit at the end of this year/quarter....any opinions.....
:dude:
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
imported post
Shaggy wrote:
Since march 2000, popular thought is we are in a cyclical (short term)bull within a secular (longer term) bear
Shaggy wrote:
Since march 2000, popular thought is we are in a cyclical (short term)bull within a secular (longer term) bear
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Dec. 01, Closing
Market News.
Kingdom Talk:. Stox advance,in lower high as overbought correction continues.
Train pulled forward but missed water tower.
Elsewhere:.......Agree with RevShark, must be a Transvestite Market!
Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.
Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1264.67, up +15.19
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.173, dn
RSI (strength) at...........66.0, up
MACD (trend)....-------
S-STO (signal)...bearish
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bullish
Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............58.47 up +1.15
Tea Leaves:....................Red (market correction)
Yak.
Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1256. Trail: 1244.
Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Dec. 01, Closing
Market News.
Kingdom Talk:. Stox advance,in lower high as overbought correction continues.
Train pulled forward but missed water tower.
Elsewhere:.......Agree with RevShark, must be a Transvestite Market!
Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.
Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1264.67, up +15.19
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.173, dn
RSI (strength) at...........66.0, up
MACD (trend)....-------
S-STO (signal)...bearish
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bullish
Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............58.47 up +1.15
Tea Leaves:....................Red (market correction)
Yak.
Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1256. Trail: 1244.
Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Good run on the C, S and I funds today....hopefully tomorrow we still get the same treatment
:dude:
Good run on the C, S and I funds today....hopefully tomorrow we still get the same treatment
:dude:
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