Market Talk / March 4th - 10th

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com - Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has recently said that liquidity does not appear to be in short supply and that the economy is demonstrating "extraordinary resilience," with regard to its ability to withstand shocks. Nonetheless, Warsh also stated that full understanding of the recent market declines will depend on further developments.

 

[ebbnflow]

I'll believe it after 5 consecutive UP days in all markets.

Rod, so you're not planning on catching any bounce? You also plan to wait on the sidelines while we get into phase three (the next big drop). Wait again for 5 consecutive UP days to finally see if the coast is clear. Rod, you're gonna miss a lot of gains. Just my two cents.

 

[Birchtree]

You can drop a load of superlative manure on his lawn, but you can't force him to spread it out . He'll do it when he's ready.

 

[tsptalk]

There seems to be a rubber band on the Dow today as each time it moves away fom the even mark, up or down, it snaps right back. And some of those moves have been quick and significant as we've had about a 150 point range. I count about 14 moves above and below the break even mark today.

 

[James48843]

Absolutely everything I am seeing is consistant with a minimum 10% pullback. Both the rate of descent, and the weakness at the tail end of the day, appear to be, in my expereince, consistent with muchmore further down to go.

I believe there will be a "phase 2", but,
first of all, we aren't close to it yet,
and second:
I don't believe I will be able to grip it and take advantage of it when it does take a bounce up. It's more like trying to catch a falling sword. You can get your hands cut up pretty easily.

I'm off to the sides until things settle down. I still see 1320 on the S&P500, and 600 or less on "S" as points where things start to level out.

 

[clester]

Smart money (Last hour) sold again! Will Asia follow suit?

 

[fabijo]

Most users ever online was 309, 05-05-2006 at 02:36 PM.


Will Tom set a new record for TSPTALK today?

Robo, I was looking for the same thing! But now I think we would need to view it as a sign the markets are going to shoot up soon. May 5th was prior to the big drop last year. If we get a bunch of people on the site during this down slope, we should be expecting a big turnaround in the markets!

*closing my eyes, praying*

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 05, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Krude down on demand woes!

Con-Yak...................................Socks down on global woes!

Jester-Yak................................The indian name for this is: woeweeky!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1374.12 -13.05 .......XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................84.17 +0.44 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............60.07 -1.57 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Red/Yellow.

Tally Can
Top 10 last 12 mo........................3.4 ......0.0 ......1.6 .....1.1 .....4.0
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[Birchtree]

What a great looking graph - would be good for some recreational repelling.

 

[clester]

Will todays bounce continue to tomorrow? or will people who are still in see it as a chance to get out? I've noticed days that start the day huge in one direction at the open reverse course during the day. Yesterday USM was looking terrible but by 10:00 was back to even. It will be interesting to see how today unfolds.

 

[weatherweenie]

BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.5. As expected, Q4 productivity was revised lower, checking in at 1.6% (consensus 1.7%) from a previous read of 3.0%. However, unit labor costs more than doubling economists' forecasts with a rise of 6.6% will place added emphasis on the hourly earnings component in Friday's jobs report to get some clarity about wage-based inflation worries. Futures trade has so far shrugged off the report. Bonds, which were already down as signs of a potential rebound in U.S. equities diminished the safe-haven attraction of Treasuries, have also held relatively steady. The 10-year note is down 7 ticks to yield 4.52%.

 

[nnuut]

Interesting Article;

Forex - Yen rangebound; markets looking for next direction

LONDON (AFX) - The yen remained within a range against most currencies asinvestors took a breather after the strong rally over the past week in order toassess where the market is likely to go next. Gains made in equity and commodity markets today allowed a pause in theunwinding of carry trades -- where money is borrowed in countries with lowinterest rates like Japan to be invested in higher-yielding economies -- thusweighing on the yen. However, "today's stock gains most likely constitute a correction within a correction that appears to have a plentiful supply of fuel," said Neil Mellor at Bank of New York. He cites a weakening US housing market and signals from the Chinesegovernment that it would seek to cool off its economy as two factors which willlead to more carry trade unwinding. "Moreover, from a practical perspective, one major sticking point to the swift revival in risk appetite is the rise in volatility engendered by therecent turmoil, which is anathema to the carry trade," Mellor said. Considering this, "and given the distinct possibility that real money investors may also be dragged into position adjustment, this suggests to us that we are simply witnessing a dead cat bounce," he said. With markets so focused on global risk assessment, the euro was littleaffected by economic data this morning that confirmed robust fourth quartereconomic growth and below-consensus retail sales for January. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise rates on Thursday,with markets eagerly awaiting the statement for a signal on how much further rates can rise.
Elsewhere, the pound moved largely in line with global markets, marking gains against the yen, and to a lesser extent against the euro and dollar aswell. This was helped by data this morning showing retail sales rose 3.3 pct inFebruary on a like-for-like basis, above the 2.5 pct the market was expecting. (MORE)http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexarticle&cb=1173196207&article=19677862

 

[Birchtree]

NASA, take it on up. Show us SPX up 25 and DJIA up 200. Smoke them bears.

 

[SkiUtah]

Lets see what "smart money" does this last hour....


3:00 pm : Stocks are extending their reach to the upside heading into the final hour of trading. All 10 sectors continue to post hefty gains while all three major indices are at session highs and are averaging intraday gains of more than 1.5%.
Faring even better than the majors is the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which is up 2.5% following Monday's 2.0% pullback. While today's gains are impressive, the true test for the bulls will come over the next 60 minutes since sellers have tended to gain some momentum going into the close of late. DJ30 +149.47 NASDAQ +44.18 SP500 +21.06 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 591/2410/1.57 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 565/2709/1.30 bln

 

[tsptalk]

NASA, take it on up. Show us SPX up 25 and DJIA up 200. Smoke them bears.

What are you so happy about? Now you have to pay more for stocks.

 

[Spaf]

Smoke them bears.

Wow Birch! U gettin after em......

 

[Birchtree]

I know, it's absolutely sinful. I'm in control of my greed factor today - can't vouch for tomorrow though. The pin action feels comfortable.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 06, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks initiate recovery.

Con-Yak...................................Lube spikes on energy hopes!

Jester-Yak................................Still in the woods!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1395.41 +21.29........XXXX............XXXX

Dollar........................................84.04 -0.13 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............60.69 +0.62 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.0 ......0.0 ......1.3 .....0.8 .....4.0
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[robo]

Daily Market Commentary

Comments: March 6, 2007

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday. We moved into the money market on Tuesday's close. By avoiding the bullet last Tuesday and making a correct call for this Tuesday we are now ahead of both the S&P and Nasdaq 100 for 2007. Still nothing to brag about, just some personal satisfaction. Wednesday should be interesting, but I don't expect much in either direction. Unlike yesterday's signal which was very strong with most components in agreement, today we have conflicting views. One aspect is that this Tuesday's jump was primarily driven by a response to the steep drop of the previous week. Most likely short covering. This type of advance often only last a day before some flattening or drop. We do have some of our signal components supporting a continuation to the up-side, but all in all, we do not have a strong reason to support either direction and therefore the risk exceeds the potential rewards. Our position is, unless we have an overwhelming probability of the next day's market going up or down your funds will be safely invested in the money market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.


http://stocmarket.com/commentp.htm

 

[FundSurfer]

[Tally Can
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.0 ......0.0 ......1.3 .....0.8 .....4.0
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

Spaf, could you say if you noticed anything in this analysis? For example- people seem to be moving to safety or I-fund? Your previous days Tally is way back there. Tough to get an idea ofwhere things are going w/o going back and looking.