Market Talk / Mar. 29 - Apr. 4

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
March 29, 2009​

General Commentary:

Is there a change in the market? Is the "V" advances a signal we could be leaving Bearsville? The S&P closed above critical resistance. The SAR has been bullish for 14 trading days. And, there is some improvement in investor sentiment. Maybe the pundits have just run out of bad news. Bearish feelings still exist with the economy, with earnings, and with the global conditions.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Weekly
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

On Friday the SPX closed from a good "V" channel at 816, above the 50day ema of 797.

The Bollinger bands still show a possibility of high volatility.

The SAR has been bullish for the past 14 trading days.

Volume has been mixed.

The STO is in an over-bought area; at 93.59

The MACD has been running positive

Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P has come with 1 point of filling Monday's gap. It's now losing a little steam but there's plenty of time left. The question is, has the gap been filled "technically"? Some say yes, some say no.

Reaching that gap area after the morning sell-off gives us another outside day. That makes the close that much more important for the bulls. They need to keep control and have the index finish near or above yesterday's high, or it could get away from them if we see a weak close. Closing in the middle of today's trading range will just complicate things.

Interesting day.

 

[Birchtree]

The bull is not going to stumble today - unless the program sellers show up in the next fifteen minutes.

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like you are right. The last push to the high of the day (813.52) just filled the gap (813.43), so we'll see if the bulls can penetrated that level.

 

[Steadygain]

The S&P is filling Monday's gap. The question is, has the gap been filled "technically"? Some say yes, some say no.

Reaching that gap area after the morning sell-off gives us... That makes the close that much more important for the bulls. They need to keep control and have the index finish near or above yesterday's high, or it could get away from them if we see a weak close. Closing in the middle of today's trading range will just complicate things.

The last push to the high of the day (813.52) just filled the gap (813.43), so we'll see if the bulls can penetrated that level.

Thanks Tom - this is the kind of information I'm craving to know.

A 'brief rally' (which I originally thought was ongoing) or a 'correction' (which I thought was ongoing in the first part of 2008) mean nothing to me in the general sceme of things.

AS A TRUE 'BULL MARKET' takes hold - or shows evidence of being real then I don't want to miss out by waiting for some huge substantial correction.

So will keep gleaming the nuggets you all provide and if tomorrow continues with a Positive Trend then I'll begin moving more to high risk.

 

[hessian]

Spaf,
A few changes in a parameters since your post this weekend: in Sar, MACD declining, Slo-STO. - Any comments, thoughts??
View attachment 6123

 

[hessian]

Apologies,
Wanted to add - I see same changed indicators now showing in:
DJ Transports, Semiconductors, NASDAQ, Wilshire 2K, and others, as well. :blink:

 

[tsptalk]

The MACD is heading down, but the higher high can be considered a positive. The stochastics are overbought, and now that they have dipped below 80, will likely move toward oversold rather stay pinned in rally mode. It's also nice to see the 50-day MA holding.

 

[Medic72]

so if people see the gap being filled do you think they will take profit and get out?

im gonna ride the wave a bit i think lol.

 

[tsptalk]

That's the theory - but nothing is set in stone.

 

[weatherweenie]

That's the theory - but nothing is set in stone.

Asian markets are up big/4%, for now.

 

[Spaf]

Spaf,
A few changes in a parameters since your post this weekend: in Sar, MACD declining, Slo-STO. - Any comments, thoughts??
View attachment 6123

hessian,

Like Tom said in pst #8 http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=215258&postcount=8 it's good to see the 50 day ma holding.

A pullback ever so often is good, however the recent pullback was in part due to jitters with the auto industry. This just shows how fragile the economy really is on a day to day movement. If it holds as a higher-low thats ok, but if it can not make a higher-high, we are right back in the soup. Some fluctuation is to be expected, however it has to hold and move on. The problem we have is one of the market being so fragile in attempts to advance. Remember it (the market) is looking forward about 6 months. It's asking the question where will this or that be six months from now? When the pricing is under the 50 dma the market is low on optimism, over the 50 dma the market sees some improvements. However, these improvements in this market can be the same as walking on a icey sidewalk.

At this point the concept of RISK MANAGEMENT comes into play. These are two words put together. Risk, the chance of something not so good happening, and management, how well funds can be controlled in relation to a period of time i.e., the TSP is pretty good at risk, but not so good at management; their ice is salted, but they don't offer much help in walking on it.

View attachment 6125​

 

[Steadygain]

Wow - Thanks everyone

Will keep this 'Must Read Thread' on the daily agenda

 

[dpmp]

Anyone here use fibonacci and/or elliote wave to explain this market. Actually, my question is whether those two methods are reliable to track the market.

thx

 

[XL-entLady]

Anyone here use fibonacci and/or elliote wave to explain this market. Actually, my question is whether those two methods are reliable to track the market.

thx

I use Fibonacci levels a lot.

Elliott waves are a whole different animal. You have to really know the theory, and Elliott wave theorists don't even agree among themselves as to which waves we're on. And if you think you're in a 1-2-3 and you're really in an a-b-c, it can cost you big bucks. I prefer other methods that are less arcane than Elliott waves.

For whatever that's worth,
Lady