Market Talk / June 29 - July 5

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
June 29, 2008​

General Commentary:

Welcome to Bearsville!........We've been wandering a path to Bearsville since about last October, passing two lower highs on the way. I guess last Friday we came close to crossing the city limits. However, bear territory is generally stated to be at a 20 - 25% drop from highs. At last look, it seemed like we're going to be here a while. The train to Bullsville left last year, and never returned!

The current economic picture does not have the confidence to support a Bull market, at least until, some major corrections are made; namely, america has to find a way out of the oil crisis. Stop by your local NEW car dealer and I bet you see a lot full of gas guzzlers.

Things don't look so good with inflation either. I heard that the folks that make "Bud Light" are thinking about raising prices! Folks are always asking about "What is a recession?" Well, >> a recession is when you see the Bud Light truck being escorted through town by a police cruiser!

The financial credit crunch/debacle/crisis has been like the plague. That thing (the subprime loans) started last year and it's still taking folks down with it.

Yes, welcome to Bearsville!

We're oversold, but there is no case for optimism, the bottom of the bucket has not been established. There is a lot of talk, but, little action other than talk!


Economics / Fundamentals:

Economic indicators were running pretty sour with folks talking about the sinking dollar and soaring oil prices. Last Friday Light sweet crude closed out in the 140 dollar range. Some were saying that oil prices had a 3.6% weekly gain.

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

Last October the DOW was at 14,015. Last Friday's closing (June 27th) was 11,347. See below and similar charts at bigcharts.marketwatch.com
In January oil was under $100. Last Friday's close was $140.21. You can see the charts at www.StockCharts.com [$WTIC] Oil - Light Crude on continuous contract.

A look at the chart(s)
The DJIA daily for one year

Charts courtesy of BigCharts​

There is a bright side to this situation! Namely TSP equities are from indexed funds. No dot.com's in TSP. So if the TSP fund is less than what was originally paid for, be patient, and just don't sell low! Also, you want to be careful as to what you hear i.e., a slight upside tick is not a rally!..

Have a good week!​

And, be careful out there!​

 

[Guest2]

Well written and enlighting, Thanks !

 

[XL-entLady]

Excellent synopsis of current conditions. Very helpful as we all make the "should I or shouldn't I" decisions that confront us with new IFTs in July.

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

Welcome back "Slick" pilot. Will look forward to your interesting graphs. As a side note, my future son in law just rolled into Fort Sill yesterday to do his captains course in artillery. The Buzz just made her captain and will not be deployed in October but will be the rear guard company commander for a year.

 

[Spaf]

Good news there Birch!

Everyone on safe ground for a while..................

Welcome back "Slick" pilot. Will look forward to your interesting graphs. As a side note, my future son in law just rolled into Fort Sill yesterday to do his captains course in artillery. The Buzz just made her captain and will not be deployed in October but will be the rear guard company commander for a year.

 

[Spaf]

Yep we'ze in "Bearsville"!

The market is following crude oil like a love struck puppy dog. Last time I dared to look, crude was at $$$$$$142.84$$$$$$$$. Oh dat hurts!..:embarrest:

The word for today (maybe tomorrow and the day after, day after, ...... is: Capital Preservation.

 

[nnuut]

Good to hear from you SPAF. Now that you're back can you fix this Oil/Gas thing?

 

[Spaf]

Good to hear from you SPAF. Now that you're back can you fix this Oil/Gas thing?

Got it fixed!!!.........At least for me!!!.............
Remember, I kept half of my funds (TSP + Others) in capital.
6 months ago I put up my Dodge pick-up (less than 20 mpg).
Doubled the size of my gardens, and have been buying fresh vegetables from the farmer up the road.
Since high oil is here to stay a while, traded in my truck for a Toyota Hybred.
Got a free park pass from US ACE.
Got me a trailer ball to fit my SUV 4wheel V-6.
Boat Launch at Park is less than one mile.
I keep the golf cart charged up.
Right now I'm training Racoons to Hold-Up beer delivery trucks.......

 

[Frixxxx]

......Right now I'm training Racoons to Hold-Up beer delivery trucks.......

OMG....now I need to see that! Do they use real guns or are they stuck with the water pistol replicas?

P.S. I drink guiness....so knock one of those over for me when I come to ride your boat on the lake!

 

[Spaf]

Frixxxx we don't use guns,,,,,we use a skunk!!!!

Well I guess thats all for the week! See ya Sunday!

 

[nnuut]

Got it fixed!!!.........At least for me!!!.............
Remember, I kept half of my funds (TSP + Others) in capital.
6 months ago I put up my Dodge pick-up (less than 20 mpg).
Doubled the size of my gardens, and have been buying fresh vegetables from the farmer up the road.
Since high oil is here to stay a while, traded in my truck for a Toyota Hybred.
Got a free park pass from US ACE.
Got me a trailer ball to fit my SUV 4wheel V-6.
Boat Launch at Park is less than one mile.
I keep the golf cart charged up.
Right now I'm training Racoons to Hold-Up beer delivery trucks.......

Looks like you fixed it for your situation. I haven't done a thing, live 5 miles from work so it doesn't make good walking around sense to trade in the 4Runner. If I take a trip it gets about 22 MPG. I don't take many trips so I'm good for now. If this thing gets worse I think I would probably go for a GM Volt when it comes out. I have a 1995 Nissan Pickup to haul stuff around so it will stay. Retirement 1 1/2 years away, hope the economy is better by then or I'm going to buy me a VESPA!
View attachment 4220

 

[The_Technician]

Looks like you fixed it for your situation. I haven't done a thing, live 5 miles from work so it doesn't make good walking around sense to trade in the 4Runner. If I take a trip it gets about 22 MPG. I don't take many trips so I'm good for now. If this thing gets worse I think I would probably go for a GM Volt when it comes out. I have a 1995 Nissan Pickup to haul stuff around so it will stay. Retirement 1 1/2 years away, hope the economy is better by then or I'm going to buy me a VESPA!
View attachment 4220

Been thinking of building an electric truck myself from maybe a S-10 or Ford Explorer.....it needs to be smallish and light....start with lead acid and as you save money on gas start buying lithium ion......

Get charged!!!