Market Talk / July 9 - 15

Birchtree said:
But there is better news on the way - the budget deficit is being reduced because of tax revenues and the trade deficit is being reduced because of a competitive dollar and increased exports with a reduction in imports. This leads me to be very positive. Snort, snort.

blueskys4ever said:
Iwould like to see this deficit data. Can you post it?

cricket.gif
 
07/07/2006 $8,410,281,565,972.66

12/30/2005 $8,170,424,541,313.62

Current account debt has an increase of:

$240,000,000,000 so far this year.

Snort. :sick:
 
blueskys4ever,

Any form of deficit reduction requires faith in monetary and fiscal policy. Just be patient - the information is on the way to be released this week. As an investor one needs to be future oriented - investing for today is too late.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
Birchtree said:
blueskys4ever,

Any form of deficit reduction requires faith in monetary and fiscal policy. Just be patient - the information is on the way to be released this week. As an investor one needs to be future oriented - investing for today is too late.

Dennis - permabull #1

You did not answer his question. :)

Originally Posted by Birchtree
But there is better news on the way - the budget deficit is being reduced because of tax revenues and the trade deficit is being reduced because of a competitive dollar and increased exports with a reduction in imports.

no%20bullshit1.jpg
 
Wizard said:
You did not answer his question. :)

Originally Posted by Birchtree
But there is better news on the way - the budget deficit is being reduced because of tax revenues and the trade deficit is being reduced because of a competitive dollar and increased exports with a reduction in imports.

no%20bullshit1.jpg

I love that picture Wizard...can I use it???

Birchy, its all in your description...PermaBull.....

I got ole Trigger out and running....gonna hav'ta lasso a rampant steer or two and let one jump.....ROUND'em UP!!!

I think I might have been a little early on the market dropping in todays action....but its looking like it it could continue on tomorrow....

No BS!!!
 
The_Technician said:
I love that picture Wizard...can I use it???

Birchy, its all in your description...PermaBull.....

I got ole Trigger out and running....gonna hav'ta lasso a rampant steer or two and let one jump.....ROUND'em UP!!!

I think I might have been a little early on the market dropping in todays action....but its looking like it it could continue on tomorrow....

No BS!!!


It is all yours Tech, no BS!!!

Another clue Birchy's lower debt thesis is incorrect:

3:00 U.S. May revolving credit rises $6.7 billion, or 10%
3:00 U.S. May consumer credit rises $4.4 billion, or 2.4%


Wow, the savings rate will really be ugly on the next PI&O Report. As if negative 1.7% on the last one was not bad enough.
 
Ya, maybe it would be a lot easier to just go ahead and collect the $393.00 on the next G fund payout. Na, I'm not that kind of guy.
 
Birchtree said:
Ya, maybe it would be a lot easier to just go ahead and collect the $393.00 on the next G fund payout. Na, I'm not that kind of guy.

You can collect 393 x 2 per week or 786 per week at the rate it is paying out now. :D But you like the pain of seeing your big morning gains slowly slip away at close, right?:embarrest: Snort.
 
I believe the name of this game is capital preservation. The ratio of risk verus return is way too steep at this juncture to warrant an aggressive equity position. Of course, if I was privy to economic data that is scheduled to be released next week, I to could become perma-bull II.
 
blueskys4ever said:
I believe the name of this game is capital preservation. The ratio of risk verus return is way too steep at this juncture to warrant an aggressive equity position. Of course, if I was privy to economic data that is scheduled to be released next week, I to could become perma-bull II.

All day long "The market is rallying on the hopes of Alcoa earnings".

AA getting torched AHs. :nuts:
 
Birchtree said:
AA earnings were up 19%, revenues were a little light from expectation - no harm done. Just relax.

Yeah, that is why it is down 3% in AHs. :D 4.85% since 1PM.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
July 10, 2006 Closing

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................See, if you sit up and beg, you get some scraps!

Con-Yak..................................Give me a break!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1267.34, up +1.86
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.113, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+1.167, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........73.49, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 52.29 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.61, dn -0.48
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Yellow [doodles +4-1, Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.
 
Federal Reserve Policy Destroys the Value of Your Savings

For years officials at the Federal Reserve Bank, including Chairman Bernanke himself, have assured us that inflation is under control and not a problem-- even as the price of housing, energy, medical care, school tuition, gold, and other commodities skyrockets.

The Treasury department parrots the Fed line that consumer prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), are under control. But even many mainstream economists now admit that CPI grossly understates true inflation. The most glaring problem is that CPI excludes housing prices, instead tracking rents. Everyone knows the cost of purchasing a home has increased dramatically in the last ten years; in many regions housing prices have more than doubled in just five years. So price inflation certainly is alive and well when to comes to the largest purchase most Americans make.

When the Federal Reserve increases the supply of dollars in circulation, both paper and electronic, prices must rise eventually. What other result it possible? The supply of dollars has risen much faster than the supply of goods and services being chased by those dollars. Fed policy makers have more than doubled the money supply in less than ten years. While Treasury printing presses can print unlimited dollars, there are natural limits to economic growth. This flood of newly minted US currency can only increase consumer prices in the long term.

Mr. Bernanke has stated quite candidly that he will use government printing presses to stimulate the economy as necessary. He is famous for joking that he would endorse dropping money from helicopters if needed to prevent an economic slowdown. This is nothing short of an express policy to destroy our money by inflation. Every new dollar erodes the value of existing dollars based on simple supply and demand. Does anyone really believe the Treasury can make us rich simply by printing more money?

The coming dollar crisis is not likely to be "fixed" by politicians who are unwilling to make hard choices, admit mistakes, and spend less money. Demographic trends will place even greater demands on Congress to maintain benefits for millions of older Americans who are dependent on the federal government.

Faced with uncomfortable financial realities, Congress will seek to avoid the day of reckoning by the most expedient means available-- and the Federal Reserve undoubtedly will accommodate Washington by printing more dollars to pay the bills. The Fed is the enabler for the spending addicts in Congress, who would rather spend new fiat money than face the political consequences of raising taxes or borrowing more abroad.

The irony is that many of the Fed's biggest cheerleaders are the same supposed capitalists who denounced centralized economic planning when practiced by the former Soviet Union. Large banks and Wall Street firms love the Fed's easy money policy, because they profit at the front end from the resulting loan boom and artificially high equity prices. It's the little guy who loses when the inflated dollars finally trickle down to him and erode his buying power. Someday Americans will understand that Federal Reserve bankers have no magic ability -- and certainly no legal or moral right -- to decide how much money should exist and what the cost of borrowing money should be.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5521.htm
 
That looks like a good post from the Wizard - until you check the author. I don't read anything vituperative from Peter Schiff or Ron Paul - I don't need the mindless infiltration of pollution. Now Kudlow was excellent this evening.
 
The Dow and S&P held up again, but if the NDX heads down again thru support it could take the other indexes with it.

Since we are at support in the NDX we could see a nice breakout if it holds, but if it fails, could be big problems. We don't want the Bulls Stampeding to the exits.

The point high risk trading here, but I'm holding a partially long position.

Good investing/Trading


TA score: 6 long 25% to 100%

2 Cash

1 Short a Mix of ETF's

If you saw the Last Samurai you should remember advice given to Tom Cruise, when he was trying to Master the Sword.

" To Many Minds " I think investors are feeling the same. Korea, Fed, Iran, Japan talking attacks, Oil, Gas prices, Housing Bubble, Iraq, Bird flu, 4 year cycle low, The DOG Days, Inverted yield curve!! Talk about a wall of Worry. More like a High Voltage Electric Fence!

I could list more, but you get the idea. " To Many Minds "

It does no good to worry about these things. Keep your stops close. We might not hit a Home-run here , but we could hit a double. However, be careful not to get thrown out trying to stretch it to a triple.
 
Birchtree said:
What was it that Bubba Gump said....

Bubba Said,

"My family knows ever'thing there is to know 'bout the shrimpin' bidness."

"Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it."
 
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