Market Talk / July 23 - 29

[Dave M]

Oh well, too late. See ya Monday!

Dave

 

[The_Technician]

Oh well, too late. See ya Monday!

Dave

Moment of question for the rest of the afternoon....will it stay up or will it do like yesterday.....don't you want to just have a beer and forget about the whole thing.....

Dollar Eur exchange was about a 1% move this morning.....not in the I fund favor....

 

[Birchtree]

The sweet smell of superlative BULL manure is wafting through the air. The smell will remain for months on end - even Peppy the Skunk is pleased.

 

[tsptalk]

From 1950-2003, the end of July tended to be strong while early August was not...

Source www.sentimentrader.com

Probably because of low volume trading, August can be quite a wild month. It had the 3rd largest one month gain (+11.6%) in the past 56 years (Offhand, I'm not sure which year it was) and also had the 2nd largest one month loss (-14.58%).

 

[tsptalk]

Dollar Eur exchange was about a 1% move this morning.....not in the I fund favor....

I think you have that backwards. The euro and pound are up pretty big today. That should be good for the I fund.

 

[TiCKed]

Accelerating up into the close....

Does that mean there is a new inflow of "we believe" money???

(Of course, with 10 minutes to go, it will probably tank just to make me look bad).

 

[TiCKed]

Oh, boy...

I'm so bad at predicting, that even *I* can predict how bad I am!

(Made sense when I wrote it...You figure it out).

 

[Mike]

The S&P failed to push past 1280 and stay there... I think Tom said that's a key technical level.

So that leads to the following questions going forward:

Are we going to test the highs or test the lows next? Will this trading range continue, or will we see a breakout / breakdown? Whichever argument you choose to make on that, where's the proper entry point?

Awfully tough to pull the trigger on any sort of short-term move here due to the volatility (i.e. if anyone moved in today, they'd find themselves buying after a big gain).

 

[Birchtree]

There is a bigger gain on the way - today is still cheap and reasonably priced. But take as much time as necessary - this is the start of a mega bull trend.

 

[The_Technician]

This thing is pegged to the ceiling.....Mike that 1280 is a mark I had and the market jump just past that mark today,..... but there is another stop at 1290....this may be the play....

After yesterdays yo yo action, today's really surprised me ...it was a real WHAAAT????..... and now Monday is a real twister.....

The one thing that bothers me is the market is maxed out and it hasn't sustained 1280....therefore August is gonna be dog gone interesting...we're due that 4-10% drop I mentioned last week....

 

[Birchtree]

Well it looks like my days of accumulating the C fund under $14.00 are over - now let's not rush to judgement on the way to $15.00 - the slower the better. There should be plenty of BEARS out this weekend spreading dire consequences - but who cares.

 

[nnuut]

The sweet smell of superlative BULL manure is wafting through the air. The smell will remain for months on end - even Peppy the Skunk is pleased.

I must admit you Sir have the gift orf Gab!

 

[Gilligan]

Oh boy! Mike says down again..


Conclusion
We may see support hold near the current levels, otherwise there is no evidence of a bottom.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday July 28 than they were on Friday July 21.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html

If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

The major indices were mixed last week with the blue chip indices up and the small cap indices down so I am calling last weeks negative forecast a tie.

Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W16/L4/T9

Mike was a little off!

 

[The_Technician]

I think you have that backwards. The euro and pound are up pretty big today. That should be good for the I fund.

Yeah I did....think I was reading an article or looking at the data trying to figure out the next move of the market and listening to my son say something then made a twisted post......sometimes .....seems the whole week has been off myself.....lost my thoughts momentarily apparently....

Why do I get this feeling that somemore BS is going to happen on Mondays action......makes it very difficult to discern what is going to happen.....

 

[ckb21401]

Well, the good news is that I managed to time my break so that I could be at a computer before noon. The bad news is I have no idea what to do. The first issue is, will these gains hold? This past week would seem indicate that they will not. And if they do hold does that mean I want to be in or out on Monday? Current geopolitical issues can make a weekend a long time to stand pat.

OK everyone, you have 10 minutes to convince me one way or the other. Birchtree and Tech need not reply, I know where you stand.

Dave
<><

I responded that the ends of months are good times to be invested. Here is a public spreadsheet ( http://zohosheet.com/public.do?fid=33484 ) that shows the cumulative gain (from June 2003 to present) buying before the end of the month and selling after the start of the month.

The negative numbers across the top refer to days at the end of the month, e.g. -1 is the last trading day of the month, -2 is the next to last trading day, etc. The numbers down the left refer to the trading day at the start of the month.

I'll do another spreadsheet that shows how bad it is to buy at the beginning of the month and sell in the middle (like I did in July, which is what started me on all of this).

This may just be finding patterns in past data and not be very useful for trading, but then again ....

Craig

 

[robo]

Mike was a little off!

Conclusion
Diminishing new lows and a pop in prices last week are encouraging, however, the seasonal record for next week has not been good.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday August 4 than they were on Friday July 28.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html

If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

The major indices were all up last week making my seasonally based negative forecast a loss.

Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W16/L5/T9

 

[ebbnflow]

Mike Burk's record (W16/L5/T9) on predicting the direction of the major indices weekly looks pretty good. The only thing I'm wary about is the T9 because it's subject to interpretation. I track the weekly direction of the market also, but the win/loss I come up with is absolute, no ties! If I lose a dollar for the week, it's a loss, and vice-versa. So far I've been tracked for eight weeks and shown a profit in six of them (W6/L2/T0).

 

[Show-me]

More good news to digest.

http://tinyurl.com/m57rg

So the bottom line is that the economy is slowing, and inflation is rising. This doesn't sound like much of a reason to celebrate. Based on today's market reaction, investors are obviously betting that a slowing economy will bring inflation back under control. If they're wrong about this, stagflation with mediocre growth and rising prices will be the inevitable outcome.

 

[Spaf]

Closing Thread Re: Market Talk / July 23 - 29

Week ending! So will be closing thread. Thanks for the Yak!
Now if my puter will cooperate!

See ya tomorrow!.. ...Spaf