Market Talk / July 23 - 29

[teknobucks]

There hasn't been a bull market top with the utilities making new highs - we are now only 5 points away from new all-time highs. Let the manure flow in abundance. It's good to half hoofs instead of paws.

from xd on tt:

If the gap at 1244 was an IT reversal gap, which looks like it is, like a text book example, then this sucker should blast through this top line very soon, before any pullback you can get. Breakout should be significant as the line is coming from May 11 top.
I seen this before, after a few reversals that train Sixpack to sell at the line, insistently comes, waits here as if it is topping again....
Boys and girls, if you are short, watch your stops, thats all i am saying.

 

[Birchtree]

The wall of worry today feels more like the "Sleepy Garden Wall" - wish something would happen. Could be waiting on the CPI numbers or the second quarter preliminary GDP. Sure glad I don't own UPS.

 

[The_Technician]

The wall of worry today feels more like the "Sleepy Garden Wall" - wish something would happen. Could be waiting on the CPI numbers or the second quarter preliminary GDP. Sure glad I don't own UPS.

Looking at some data and it sure looks like we could take a 4-10% knife edge drop real soon...:blink: ..but it then again, it may not....makes me want to stay out for the time being though....:worried:

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
July 25, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Oil prices subside, confidence increases and mideast crisis remains local.

Con-Yak..................................Stay tuned for tomorrow.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1268.88, up +7.97
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.057, flat.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-1.746, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........58.72, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 54.97 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.75, dn -1.30
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Yellow [doodles +4-1, Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

 

[Dave M]

My Amazon Parrot

He spoke today when I came home, said we could go up 3% this week; but, maybe not. D

 

[TiCKed]

Re: My Amazon Parrot

He spoke today when I came home, said we could go up 3% this week; but, maybe not. D

I just had an amazing thought! Maybe it's not a crystal ball at all. It's an egg laid by Dave's parrot.

 

[Birchtree]

The Technician,

This market will have a natural propensity to try and head fake as many participants as it can.

Other wise in my judgement, the current benign inflation situation coupled with interest rate normalization can sustain the "Goldilocks" global economy.

Be right and sit tight - snort.

 

[The_Technician]

Re: My Amazon Parrot

He spoke today when I came home, said we could go up 3% this week; but, maybe not. D

Dave, :nuts:

I was just leaving it open for contemplation .....

Maybe you have something to add worth listening too.....it seems your parrot already has........:notrust:

 

[robo]

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Time Heals All Wounds
World markets were injured by the Bank of Japan this year. Starting in March, the BOJ started withdrawing liquidity from the system. This liquidity had helped pump almost all markets up after the deflationary scare of the early 'Naughties. Excess cash had been used to fund "Yen carry trades" where money was borrowed in Japanese Yen, converted to other currencies and invested. The interest rate on borrowed Yen was zero, so any positive return in other currencies was likely to produce fabulous profits as long as the Yen didn't appreciate. And, the Yen did not appreciate because the conversion of Yen to other currencies meant that Yen were sold to buy those other currencies, keeping the Yen under downward pressure.

Although the markets had plenty of advance warning that the BOJ would be withdrawing these funds in March 2006, it was business as usual around the world into May. Of course, we detected that the smart money was selling heavily into the rally and warned subscribers that it was time to move into cash or hedge investments for the storm that was inevitable. When the massive storm of selling is taking place into a rally, the end result usually ends up exactly like this one ended up -- a panic decline to get out.

Since the panic, the BOJ has retrenched somewhat and that has helped ease the pain the markets are feeling. And, the stock markets are bouncing back and forth from the top of the trading range to the bottom and back up again in a dizzying spectacle that has both volatility and lack of trend direction. However, the BOJ has not reversed their policy and there isn't much hope the markets will go back to the carefree days of yesteryear. The markets have to get used to a much more "normal" kind of environment without that excess liquidity pumping up all manner of investments. It will take time for the markets to adjust. The interesting thing to investors is to recognize when the markets have adjusted and are ready to start moving up again. That's where the aspect of time comes into play.


http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

MARKET COMMENT

July 25, 2006

The machines, of the program trading variety, are in charge. When volume is light Da Boyz and their computers can push things around at will.

The chart below typifies overall trading today in many market sectors.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

 

[ebbnflow]

MARKET COMMENT

July 25, 2006

The machines, of the program trading variety, are in charge. When volume is light Da Boyz and their computers can push things around at will.

Da Boyz can just as easily do some profit-taking tomorrow with a sell-off.

 

[robo]

Stocks: Back to the Top of the Trading Range

The market stutter-stepped Tuesday, but by the end of the day was able to muster enough strength to make it back to near the top of the trading range which has bound it since the middle of May. Although it was nice to see the market follow-through after a rally day with another rally, the internals still leave a lot to be desired and further base-building is likely.

One missing ingredient in Tuesday afternoon's bounce was the NASDAQ-100 Index, which continues to lag behind the blue chips. When our "lead dog" lags, it's best not to get too excited about the rally. This is a strong sign that the stock market is basically still mired in a trading range with no overall direction to please either bulls or bears.

The bond market slumped on Tuesday as signs of rebounding consumer confidence dashed bulls' ideas that a recession was imminent. Although we think the chances are fairly high there will be a recession, it's not likely to start before July 2007 and that's too long to hold the attention of bond traders, so they sold bonds Tuesday.

We did read with interest the report from Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin which John Mauldin distributed in his weekly Outside the Box letter. From their perspective, the odds appear stacked in favor of a recession in light of the large number of indicators which are historically accurate at forecasting such events. Certainly, one would not want to be buying stocks in the face of a recession. The last recession saw virtually every stock get slaughtered and it's likely the next recession will be far worse than the tech-heavy affair of the early 'Naughties. And, of course, the bond market will benefit from the falling interest rates that will come about due to the next recession. Still, the article points out factors which will delay the onset of the recession and it's too early to be switching from stocks to bonds.

The best indicator of a future recession, the difference in yield between the 10-year Treasury Note and the 90-day Treasury Bill, continues lower in negative territory (i.e., an "inverted" relationship where short term yields are higher than long term) it entered on July 18th. It has been inverted for more than week now and shows no signs of recovery. But, the signal of a recession will be given officially only if the indicator stays inverted to mid-October and even then it will be forecasting a recession starting next July -- nine months later.

 

[Spaf]

Stocks: Back to the Top of the Trading Range

The market stutter-stepped Tuesday,.......

Sure did!
It's a hold your breath!
The pivot point for S&P is 1280 which occured the first of July. If Mr. Market can retake 1280 we turn the bulls loose. If not we return to grazing. The fundamentals that would break 1280 seem to be a control of the M.E. crisis, lube under 75, and a sentiment of not robust, but good growth.
Right now I'm siding with "Burchtree" Lets turn them bulls loose!....
Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

Da Boyz can just as easily do some profit-taking tomorrow with a sell-off.

So you should be looking at what the Da Boyz are looking at....and move with them....

 

[mlk_man]

Anybody know where I can get data on the indicator called TICK?

 

[Spaf]

From: SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures headed higher Wednesday, with failed talks on the Israel/Lebanon conflict renewing the prospect of broader fighting in the Middle East and a U.S government report showing the biggest gasoline inventory decline in more than three months.

:notrust: Rats!...I wanted to see the bulls run........This is lookin to be a long summer!

 

[Birchtree]

We are getting another rock in the rock wall of worry - those darn Dow Transports are getting the hammer for a second day. I think however the UPS situation is over kill and transports will just wait awhile on the DJIA and eventually play catch up. The Dow Utilities are doing just fine - reaching for a new all-time high real soon. That will provide clear sailing for a number of months. CSX is due for a 2 for 1 split 8/15 and then I double up on my double. Snort.

 

[Wheels]

We are getting another rock in the rock wall of worry - those darn Dow Transports are getting the hammer for a second day. I think however the UPS situation is over kill and transports will just wait awhile on the DJIA and eventually play catch up. The Dow Utilities are doing just fine - reaching for a new all-time high real soon. That will provide clear sailing for a number of months. CSX is due for a 2 for 1 split 8/15 and then I double up on my double. Snort.

Haven't you said in the past that the Transports are a good indicator of the DJ Industrials?

Dave
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[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
July 26, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Socks opened with a low gap and struggled.

Con-Yak..................................Lube kept pressure up!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1268.40, dn -0.48
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.006, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-0.491, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........78.08, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 54.76 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.94, up +0.19
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Yellow [doodles +4-1, Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

 

[robo]

MARKET COMMENT

July 26, 2006


There’s only three trading days left in July. How will the bulls manage it? One thing is clear; the markets are no longer oversold. August looms and not with standing the always unexpected, volume should shrink typically and “Da Boyz” will find it even easier to push markets in the direction they wish.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php