Market Talk / July 2 - 8

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Birchtree said:
Bad news is once again good news - slower economy means contained inflation with a Fed at rest. The ISM index of manufacturing activity fell to 53.8 in June from 54.4 in May. Gosh I thought for sure my Toad friend (aka Lizard) would be banging the gloom and doom drums on this one. And don't forget construction spending fell 0.4 percent in May. Got Gold?
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Name calling again, Birchy? When you can win with facts - start name calling.

You got the economy is going into the crapper part correct, however inflation is no where near contained. And the Feds charter is the USD not stock prices.

Raising into slowing growth never ends well.

Wonder how long the negative month over month 1.7% savings rate is going to last?

Hope you enjoyed your low volume start of the month pump because you will get a dose of reality tomorrow. :nuts:
 
This article expands on the up day volume / down day volume issue that Tom addressed in his comments recently. Interestingly, one market analyst quoted near the end of this article simply sees an extremely volatile market and does not believe the two big up days in June are particularly bullish this time.

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That was the pump - next comes the dump.:embarrest:
 
Fivetears,

That's some great stuff - adds to the rock wall of worry. Will certainly not be easy remaining bullish - but one has to have stamina. BULL markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gunshy and keep the bears (like Wizard) from recognizing the prevailing trend. And remember the stock market is nothing if not perverse.
 
Not to worry, Tom. Those guys can't hit the broad side of a barn.
biggrinner.gif
It'd take more than those commies to take us to DEFCON 3. :blink:
 
I will focus on the Dow Transports for Wednesday. We are only 24.04 points from another new all-time high - with the Industrials close behind. Oh where are thou top? Many moons away.
 
ebbnflow said:
Not to worry, Tom. Those guys can't hit the broad side of a barn.
biggrinner.gif
It'd take more than those commies to take us to DEFCON 3. :blink:
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Looks like it won't be the Koreans to worry about, its about all the other investors.....and what they will do......due to the Ko's
 
Tech,
With this global bar, you can't even get a (good) martini (shaken not sturred). It's what ever the bar-keep feels like pouring. N.K. doesn't have to hit the side of the barn (the Russians never could), all they got to do is to open their door. And that is what has happened. It's like getting the toothpaste back in the tube!
 
tsptalk said:
Yikes! North Korea is shooting off some big fireworks. :eek:
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The bad news..... North Korea launches at least seven (russian media are reporting ten) missles. They had previously not launched any tests since 1998.

The good news: Seven (or ten) fewer missles on hand to threaten the rest of the world, plus, looks like the long-range one everybody was worried about a few days ago, well, it doesn't seem to work very good. :-)

Net sum gain: While a few people may rattle some markets for a day or two, strategically it bodes pretty well for our nation's defense. The north still doesn't have a missle capable of reaching the U.S., and even if it did, it only can reach as far as the left-coast cities of Seattle, San Francisco, or L.A. Likehood of having a strike on U.S. territory just went down a little, in my book. And got more world attention focused on the NK issue, which can't be all bad.

Prediction: a day or two of market unsteadiness, followed by a resumption of upward movement about a week-and-a-half from now.

I may move more out of "I" and into "G" today, just to hold some nice profits over the last month here, but will be ready to jump back in if things settle down quickly.
 
James48843 said:
Early indiciations are both "F" fund and "I" fund are going to get whumped pretty hard today.
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If inflation is contained why are bonds yielding roaring higher? :embarrest:
 
Wizard said:
If inflation is contained why are bonds yielding roaring higher? :embarrest:
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The cycle is repeating yet again. The bond market prices in a raise by the Fed and generally arrives at bond yields that closely match the new Fed number just as the Fed makes its move.

The market is now pricing in another hike in August. Between now and then, yields will rise and bond prices drop. The only thing that will reverse this is the market coming to believe - really believe - that there will not be another rate hike.
 
Pilgrim said:
The cycle is repeating yet again. The bond market prices in a raise by the Fed and generally arrives at bond yields that closely match the new Fed number just as the Fed makes its move.

The market is now pricing in another hike in August. Between now and then, yields will rise and bond prices drop. The only thing that will reverse this is the market coming to believe - really believe - that there will not be another rate hike.
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Yield curve is inverted.

Fed Fund rate is 5.25%

30 year is 5.24%.

What the bond market is saying is stagflation. Slowing growth and higher inflation.

Worst of both worlds - only one that makes money in the U.S. markets will be the the short sellers and money market holders. But after inflation the money market holders "true return" will be underwater also :D
 
Wizard said:
Yield curve is inverted.

Fed Fund rate is 5.25%

30 year is 5.24%.

What the bond market is saying is stagflation. Slowing growth and higher inflation.

Worst of both worlds - only one that makes money in the U.S. markets will be the the short sellers and money market holders. But after inflation the money market holders "true return" will be underwater also :D
Click to expand...

Yadda, Yadda, Yadda....
 
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