Market Talk / February 25th - March 3rd

[James48843]

There is now a warning on the transactions page that they are bogged down, however I just breezed through an IFT with no delay.

I wonder if the TSP people watch TSPTALK's threads to monitor how things are going.....

 

[FundSurfer]

I got the same message. I did have to reload several pages several times.

Now knowing that we are a small part of TSP, that means there is a herd of people (dumb money??) going somewhere. I'd bet a bunch of our uninformed brethern are headed to the exit based on talking head talk. Be interesting to see if there is a downturn late in the day as a result.

 

[pointman72]

Maybe a new all time online viewer record today on top of it all!!!

Go TOM!!!!

 

[weatherweenie]

Anyone noticing the Dow has lost about 50% of its intraday gain?

 

[James48843]

Anyone noticing the Dow has lost about 50% of its intraday gain?

Dead cat patterns.

Lots of whipsaw this week ahead.

 

[tsptalk]

Maybe a new all time online viewer record today on top of it all!!!

That is cool. The last record of 309 on May 5, 2006 has held for some time. Ironically, but not so coincidentally, it was the last time we had the start of a big sell off.

 

[HarryPotter]

Tom,
I have to agree on fundamentals as well. Rumors drove the overextended market down in a flurry of profit taking. The economic fundamentals of the overseas markets have not changes substantially. Euro and Yen are still strong. I am going long today 70% in international fund. And will stay long until early May. 20% in S and 10% in G.
Harry

 

[tsptalk]

I agree. This is a powerful market that just didn't give us a good, typically convenient, buying opportunity. A lot of people have emailed me saying they got killed yesterday being 100% in the stock fund, and asked what they should do. I tell them to stay the course if they consider themself an investor.

 

[vectorman]

I got the same message. I did have to reload several pages several times.

Now knowing that we are a small part of TSP, that means there is a herd of people (dumb money??) going somewhere. I'd bet a bunch of our uninformed brethern are headed to the exit based on talking head talk. Be interesting to see if there is a downturn late in the day as a result.

Using the allocation changes of our members as an examlpe, I would say many were not running to the exit but to the I fund looking for easy money off the dip, or using this as an opportunity to re-balance. I'm not seeing an mass exit in my work place they're not scared enough.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm not seeing an mass exit in my work place they're not scared enough.

Exactly. There was no time to bring fear into the picture. That makes this one day blip suspect. If we don't continue down then this is a blip and not a correction. That would be discouraging for those looking for a buying opportunity. I like to buy fear and sell euphoria. It's been a looong time since we've seen fear. There was some in June and July last year, but not much.

 

[Wheels]

Using the allocation changes of our members as an examlpe, I would say many were not running to the exit but to the I fund looking for easy money off the dip, or using this as an opportunity to re-balance. I'm not seeing an mass exit in my work place they're not scared enough.

I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of them were not making moves at all but just checking their balances to see the damage.

 

[FundSurfer]

Using the allocation changes of our members as an examlpe, I would say many were not running to the exit but to the I fund looking for easy money off the dip, or using this as an opportunity to re-balance. I'm not seeing an mass exit in my work place they're not scared enough.

The masses are not that smart. They are dumb cattle headed to slaughter. The folks on TSPTALK represent a very small fraction at this point. Your dip buying example would suggest an educated/aggressive set of masses. I'm not sure what the capacity of the tsp.gov servers is but I would hope it would be at least in the 10's of thousands, not the hundreds.

 

[FundSurfer]

I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of them were not making moves at all but just checking their balances to see the damage.

I had that thought as well.

 

[fedgolfer]

the intraday moving averages on the 5 day charts on the S&P and DWCP are about to converge, the stochs are also closer to 20%/oversold... hopefully this will lead to a push higher on a technical basis in the next 30 minutes or so.

 

[ATCJeff]

I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of them were not making moves at all but just checking their balances to see the damage.

Agree!

 

[James48843]

I want to give special kudo's today to Maddog.

In case you haven't seen it, Maddog tracks what all of us TSP'ers are doing when we make our daily moves.

Here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3422&page=22

And he shows what the top people of 2006, and the top people of 2007, are doing with their fund shifts.

Today, for example is showed a HUGE shift by the top performers off the sidelines and into, mostly, the "I" fund. He is showing what the top guys are doing with their postings, and he's done it with time enought to get MY tsp move placed before the deadline.

And it provides invaluable insight.

the last two days, for example, it showed the top fund performers sitting on the sidelines, and then today the vast majority of top performers lurching to get back in.

Very, very valuable real time data for me to make my decisions.

thank you Maddog!

 

[tsptalk]

I would think this is more substantial than a "dead cat"...

I agree the market has held up well today, but a bounce that has only been able to pick up 25% of yesterday's losses so far at today's peak (now less than 15%) I would still put in the dead cat category. If we end the day up 200 points (50% recovery like China) I may reconsider, but even that is suspect and not unusual for a DCB (dead cat bounce) Hey, a new acronym.

Dead Cat Bounce?

Time will tell.

 

[MADDOG]

I want to give special kudo's today to Maddog.

In case you haven't seen it, Maddog tracks what all of us TSP'ers are doing when we make our daily moves.

Here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3422&page=22

And he shows what the top people of 2006, and the top people of 2007, are doing with their fund shifts.

Today, for example is showed a HUGE shift by the top performers off the sidelines and into, mostly, the "I" fund. He is showing what the top guys are doing with their postings, and he's done it with time enought to get MY tsp move placed before the deadline.

And it provides invaluable insight.

the last two days, for example, it showed the top fund performers sitting on the sidelines, and then today the vast majority of top performers lurching to get back in.

Very, very valuable real time data for me to make my decisions.

thank you Maddog!

thank you for the kudo's;
i may have to get another wrist band for the other hand
my left one is killin me after today

md

 

[Wheels]

I want to give special kudo's today to Maddog.

In case you haven't seen it, Maddog tracks what all of us TSP'ers are doing when we make our daily moves...

Very, very valuable real time data for me to make my decisions.

thank you Maddog!

Wow. I wasn't a daily visitor to Maddog's thread. I am now. Great stuff. Thanks for the all the hard work.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com: It is also worth noting that tomorrow is the first trading day of a new month, which is typically a strong day for stocks as new fund flows hit the market. Today's huge volumes suggests that some of those inflows may be hitting the market a day or two earlier than anticipated.