Market Talk / February 25th - March 3rd

[Rod]

One thing for investors to weigh early Wednesday is an 8:30 a.m. ET report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast that the broad measure of the nation's economic activity will be revised down to an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent from the initial reading of 3.5 percent growth.

But Hogan said he's not sure that's going to be the major focus of trading, even if there is a surprise.

"I don't think it (the selloff) was predicated on the slower than expected U.S. growth, and that's a rear-view mirror number anyway," he said. "I think we're going to focus more on collateral damage that was done and where the bargain hunting is taking place.

At 10 a.m. ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to testify before the House Budget Committee hearing on long-tern fiscal challenges and the economy." Questions about Tuesday's selloff in stocks are likely.

"If he stays on message as he has in the past, it's not going to hurt market," Hogan predicted.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/markets/stockswatch2/index.htm?postversion=2007022806

 

[Show-me]

Talking heads are really talking now. China gained back half and all eyes are on the USM. Will the bulls step up?

Cramer is on the Today Show telling the masses that he believes a slow down instead of a recession is coming. Interest rate will fall twice, and that is a good time to buy a home and "blue chip" stocks that pay dividends.

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. As expected, Q4 GDP was revised lower. The preliminary read checked in at 2.2% (consensus 2.3%), down from an advance read of 3.5%. The chain deflator -- a key inflation measure -- ticked higher to 1.7% (consensus 1.5%). Even though the report is dated and was relatively in line with expectations, futures trade has strengthened in response, suggesting an even stronger bounce in the wake of Tuesday's tumble. Bonds, though, have held their ground, as the 1o-year note is still down 8 ticks to yield 4.54%.

 

[FundSurfer]

Well we will look at the same folks for a while. I'll use your Leader Tally Chart, Top 10 Last 12 months, posted 01-31-07

Yep, that's the right one. The reason I suggested using the top 10 for the previous 12 months is that anybody can have a good month or two. To have a good longer stretch increases the likelyhood that there is skill at work. As Azanon?? or Desparado would point out, you could still have lucky monkeys in that group. I think we could prove statistically wil a big enough group that the longer the stretch of proven performance, the higher the likelyhood that there is more than just luck involved.

 

[Rod]

One thing we have going is that key economic news for the day will be in before noon.

 

[James48843]

Economy grew smaller than expected- was 2.2 vs. projected 2.3%

Economy Grows at 2.2 Percent Pace in Final Quarter of 2006, Weaker Than Economists Expected


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy grew at a sluggish 2.2 percent pace in the final quarter of last year, much slower than initially estimated, the government reported Wednesday in the sort of unusually large revision that has happened only seven times in the last 30 years.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070228/economy.html?.v=5

 

[James48843]

A little volatility there, wouldn't you say?

Thunk....and we are in red territory once again on S and C.

 

[James48843]

For what it's worth-

My coworker just tried to log in to the TSP website to make an interfund transfer this morning.

He couldn't get in....system was bogged down and running very slowly.

You might want to keep that in mind, and not wait until the last minute if you are going to try and make any changes today.

He is still trying to get in, after 10 mintues of trying....

 

[Griffin]

He is still trying to get in, after 10 mintues of trying....

I just got in on the first try, but I will make a decision to move by 1100 just to be on the safe side, but I want to see how the market reacts to Bernake and the report.

 

[Wrngway]

You might want to keep that in mind, and not wait until the last minute if you are going to try and make any changes today.

Good advice. I just made a small move today and it is bogged down. I have a decent connection on my end, but it took a few minutes from beginning to end.

 

[Rod]

For what it's worth-

My coworker just tried to log in to the TSP website to make an interfund transfer this morning.

He couldn't get in....system was bogged down and running very slowly.

You might want to keep that in mind, and not wait until the last minute if you are going to try and make any changes today.

He is still trying to get in, after 10 mintues of trying....

Just use the Thriftline.

 

[Rod]

Oh oh... Uncle Ben is speaking...:worried:

Turn it on CNBC if you can...

 

[tsptalk]

I just took a look at the 1997 Asian market crisis. It' looks like its sell-off was a one or two day wonder. The market rebounded quickly, waffled for a few weeks, then continued higher. Just an observation. No conclusions being drawn.

 

[The_Technician]

I just took a look at the 1997 Asian market crisis. It' looks like its sell-off was a one or two day wonder. The market rebounded quickly, waffled for a few weeks, then continued higher. Just an observation. No conclusions being drawn.

Well Tom u got the index right, and the time, but the reasons are much different than then....we have a lot of reasons today for a more severe correction than then, the reasons are endless.....and the reaction will be more pronounced.....yesterdays drop was a significant event.....but I do expect a rebound to comeback sooner because of the future economics, which I would be will to say is going to be US economics driven...OS economics are just going to have to take a back seat for a while....even though they will still be around.....the world economics could just be going down for another 60 years or so according to Fibronnacci theory.....we sure could use an advance in energy technology that is economical right now......

 

[fedgolfer]

bernanke is testifying now, said something along the lines of, "the revised GDP numbers are more in line with what we were thinking.... nothing has changed in the US econ picture since I last reported to you... moderate growth is still the outlook."

Markets should respond to the upside.

 

[James48843]

markets moving up.

So the question of the day is this:

Is this a dead cat, or is this a buying opportunity?

Please weigh in. What do you think?

One hour till trading deadline for decisions.

 

[SkyPilot]

I would think this is more substantial than a "dead cat"...

 

[Fivetears]

Chinese Investors Shrug, and Shanghai Rallies
SHANGHAI - Seated before a row of computer terminals flickering with stock charts in a large brokerage house in this bustling city, Li Ruichang insists he is not too worried about Tuesday’s massive stock sell-off. Things like that happen, says Mr. Li, a 63-year-old engineer. But I’m not worried about a crash. After a five-year-long bear market, the bull market shouldn’t end that fast. Mr. Li is a speculator. He says the Chinese stock market is a casino, or perhaps even a government-regulated slot machine. But you can still make money betting on the market here. And besides, he says, the Chinese government will not let anything terrible happen to the country’s gigantic slot machine of a market before August 2008, when the Olympic games will be held in Beijing. Many other investors here agreed this afternoon. And so did the Shanghai stock market, which rallied Wednesday to gain a hefty 109 points, or 3.9 percent today. No other Asian stock market did as well Wednesday, one day after the Shanghai’s dramatic sell off sent shock waves through the global financial markets, rattling share prices from Tokyo and London to New York.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/28/b...f4a7c60b32c6&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss

Is this how our US Bull Market ends? They all just run off into the Grand Canyon? Perhaps not. Corrections (I believe) are a little less dramatic.

 

[FundSurfer]

I would think this is more substantial than a "dead cat"...

I tend to agree.

 

[Wheels]

For what it's worth-

My coworker just tried to log in to the TSP website to make an interfund transfer this morning.

He couldn't get in....system was bogged down and running very slowly.

You might want to keep that in mind, and not wait until the last minute if you are going to try and make any changes today.

He is still trying to get in, after 10 mintues of trying....

There is now a warning on the transactions page that they are bogged down, however I just breezed through an IFT with no delay.