Market Talk / February 25th - March 3rd

[SkiUtah]

Just another rolling correction.....no pain no gain.

 

[weatherweenie]

Nice.

the 1389 held.

The good news-

The bounce off the 1389 level. That was six points higher than I expected. And is a support level I had anticipated. If we can make it till 4pm and not retest that level, then that should also act as a brake tomorrow morning in the AM

Nice move back up. tomorrow morning may be off a little, but I think we just got a huge buying opportunity tomorrow.

Think we'll test that support level again before this is over. Just my opinion.

 

[Pill]

Agreed! I am going to sit tight, all bull here.

 

[Mike]

If this is the start of the correction that we haven't had in years, we have a long ways to go to hit bottom (another 5%+).

 

[tsptalk]

The Dow Transports are down almost 6% in 2 days.

 

[SkiUtah]

Looks like buying into the close....

 

[tsptalk]

Shorts are covering.

 

[Spaf]

Looks like the panic has stopped. The Dow is starting to be more stable!

 

[Wheels]

Good for Tom. This vindicates his position.

You all remember shoots and ladders I'm sure. I just hit that big slide that sends you back to the beginning.

Not entirely. Remember. Tom has been out since roughly Sept 1st. In that time some of the indices have risen 14% +/-. I'm not picking on Tom, during that time I have spent more time out than in.

Of course his F fund play was superb. To make money in that wasteland 4 or 5 days in a row, nice job Tom.

 

[Wheels]

I bet the huge amount TSP'ers getting out caused the gap down. I don't know when TSP would buy or sell, but I would guess about 3pm to get all the trades done. Don't underestimate our ability to move the markets.

I seriously doubt it. First of all the large majority of TSP'ers do not make daily moves the way we do here on this board, even on a wild day like today. And even if they did, we would be but a blip on the overall market.

 

[FundSurfer]

Bunny Cage
Bunny Hoppers / Top 10 ................0.8 ......0.0 ......2.1 .....4.5 ......2.7
TSP Funds...................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

Spaf, where does your top 10 come from? Is this the current year top 10, last 12 months top 10, or 2006 top 10, or some combination?

 

[Wheels]

Spaf, where does your top 10 come from? Is this the current year top 10, last 12 months top 10, or 2006 top 10, or some combination?

I just asked this the other day (I think it was earlier in this thread).

I made the point that the top ten is not a very good predictive tool. For instance, there will be a shift in the top ten showing a heavier bias towards the G fund because of what happened today. But that is clearly backwards looking, not forward.

 

[James48843]

Quote:
Originally Posted
Nice.

the 1389 held.

The good news-

The bounce off the 1389 level. That was six points higher than I expected. And is a support level I had anticipated. If we can make it till 4pm and not retest that level, then that should also act as a brake tomorrow morning in the AM

Nice move back up. tomorrow morning may be off a little, but I think we just got a huge buying opportunity tomorrow.

Think we'll test that support level again before this is over. Just my opinion.

Think we'll test that support level again before this is over. Just my opinion.

I think you are right. I think another 4% in the next day or two, and then it will resume the climb. Tomorrow is going to hurt too, but then we may be in much bettre shape.

 

[James48843]

Tom- looks like you'll get your leader board position back afterall, and very soon. Nice work.

 

[FundSurfer]

I just asked this the other day (I think it was earlier in this thread).

I made the point that the top ten is not a very good predictive tool. For instance, there will be a shift in the top ten showing a heavier bias towards the G fund because of what happened today. But that is clearly backwards looking, not forward.

I disagree.

I looked at the allocations of the top 10 for the previous 12 months as of yesterday at COB.

Using Spaf's scale:

G F C S I
4.5 0.25 4.0 0.25 1.0

That is actually very bearish for this group of usually very agressive folks. I have a feeling Spaf is using top 10 YTD which I would not put much faith in myself. No proven track record yet. The longer the track record the better.

 

[FundSurfer]

The top ten (people) are a reflection of Rokid's Weekly Tally. I disregard any fund or system in the top 10. I want it to reflect the emotional aspect. The allocations (positions) are updated daily from IFT's posted in accounts. ....The "Tin Box" is a current position of the top 10. Where they hop tomorrow only the bunny knows!..

Yep, just as I thought. Spaf is using new monkeys. Need to use the ones with a little more experiance. Get some grey haired stinky ones with a track record.

Spaf, I'd recommend using the prior 12 months top 10 list. That would be a rolling list of people with a more consistant higher return. I know who I watch and knew you were looking at a different set of folks. JMHO

 

[Spaf]

Yep, just as I thought. Spaf is using new monkeys. Need to use the ones with a little more experiance. Get some grey haired stinky ones with a track record.

Spaf, I'd recommend using the prior 12 months top 10 list. That would be a rolling list of people with a more consistant higher return. I know who I watch and knew you were looking at a different set of folks. JMHO

I can use that!
Its on your tally sheet, right
Could you mark the top ten, to make sure I get the right ones!
I'm open for any improvement!

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 27, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Bunny Cage

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The bleeding finally stopped around closing time!

Con-Yak...................................Shanghai market plunge ignites global market sell-off.

Jester-Yak................................A sea of red!

Le Charts
Ouch!

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1399.04 -50.33........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.48 -0.46 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............61.50 +0.11for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Red.

Bunny Cage
Bunny Hoppers / Top 10 ...............1.8 ......2.0 ......1.1 .....3.7 .....1.5
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[Wheels]

I looked at the allocations of the top 10 for the previous 12 months as of yesterday at COB.

Using Spaf's scale:

G F C S I
4.5 0.25 4.0 0.25 1.0

He is updating it daily. As of his closing remarks yesterday there 0.8 in the G and 0 in the F. Today it is 1.8 in the G and 2.0 in the F. Pretty big shift in one day. Makes my point I think.

 

[tsptalk]

... did anyone hear what happened at 3:00 to trigger that waterfall like decline?

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2007/02/27/tabulation-trouble/

February 27, 2007, 4:46 pm
Tabulation Trouble

Posted by Chris Bain
Scott Patterson reports on the Dow industrials quick 3 p.m. drop:

The sudden, sharp decline by the Dow Jones Industrial Average shortly before 3 p.m. Eastern time today was triggered by a tabulation delay by Dow Jones data systems, which calculates the average. There was a temporary lag in calculation of the 30 large-stock average due to a surge in order flows as the market continued to tumble in afternoon trading, much like a clogged pipe. Just before 3 p.m., Dow Jones Indexes switched over to a backup system to calculate the average, which nearly instantly registered the huge move.

The glitch wasn’t the cause of the decline, but it did cause the drop to register far more quickly than it otherwise would have. Other indexes fell at the same time, but more gradually. Some traders noticed a discrepancy between futures contracts tied to the Dow industrials and the index, which directly tracks the stocks. Usually, the futures contracts closely track the overall average.

“There was a huge disconnect between the Dow futures and the Dow average” of about 200 points, said Brian Williamson, an equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management.